Analysis: Why the Upcoming SCOTUS Confirmation Battle May Be Relatively Tame
Guy Benson
Posted: Jan 27, 2022 10:25 AM
When the news broke yesterday of Justice Breyer's intention to retire from the Supreme Court after this term -- a decision that was apparently leaked prematurely -- my phone started blowing up. Friends and colleagues texted and emailed about the prospect of an imminent, epic political war breaking out over filling the upcoming vacancy. Given recent history, and the Left's pattern of vicious histrionics, this reaction was an understandable initial instinct -- but upon further scrutiny, I believe it will prove misplaced in this case. I could be wrong. A major curveball or bombshell could scramble the dynamics. But barring that sort of thing, or a truly radical pick by the president, I suspect the Breyer replacement process will be a relatively low octane affair that may well move forward fairly smoothly and somewhat predictably. Why?
(1) All SCOTUS vacancies are high-profile political events, but some are laden with much higher stakes. In the scheme of things, this is a low-stakes vacancy. The likely outcome is a progressive justice replacing a progressive justice, with the ideological balance of the Court unchanged. Going to the mats to try to derail this nomination doesn't make strategic sense. I'd bet Mitch McConnell lets his very conservative members fight the good fight and rile up the righty base in an election year (it's always useful to remind conservative voters about the importance of the courts and the balance of power in the Senate), while allowing members with other considerations take whatever votes they need to on this one.
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https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2022/01/27/analysis-the-upcoming-scotus-confirmation-battle-may-be-relatively-tame-n2602425