January 27, 2022
Wrong War, Wrong Enemy
By Richard B. Speed
In the aftermath of the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, America faces the looming possibility of fighting two major wars at opposite ends of the Eurasian continent simultaneously: one against Russia over Ukraine and another against China over Taiwan. Given our current disarray, the United States is in no position to fight a two-front war. Accordingly, it is our best policy to avoid conflict in both regions.
The United States has no vital interests to defend In Ukraine. Should the Russians seize it, they will merely occupy a region that has been Russian since the days of Catherine the Great. In doing so, they will most likely become bogged down in a guerrilla resistance movement not unlike what they faced in Afghanistan throughout the 1980s. Russia will have its hands full, and NATO will remain intact and fully on guard.
On the other hand, should China invade Taiwan and the United States fails to come to the island's defense, nations throughout the Far East will most likely conclude that they can no longer rely on the United States for their defense against a rising China. Japan and South Korea will have to choose between accommodating Chinese demands and building nuclear arsenals of their own to defend themselves. Other nations on China's periphery will likely have to back away from their association with the United States and make their peace with the new order in Asia. In short, the U.S. has much to lose.
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