COP 26: The UN climate conference in Glasgow was everything we expected: Bountiful laughter
By Dr. Jay Lehr, Robert Lyman |November 15th, 2021|Climate|9 Comments
The COP26 climate conference has ended in Glasgow, and most of the western countries’ political leaders have returned home after paying due homage to the thesis that we must all stop using oil, gas and coal to avoid a climate “catastrophe”. The world’s bankers continued on longer seeking commitments to withdraw critically-needed financing from those who seek to develop more hydrocarbon supplies. People who are well-informed about global energy supply, demand and emissions trends are left scratching their heads in puzzlement as to how the western elites could possibly fail to understand how much at odds their policy announcements are from reality.
Let’s start with the basics of energy consumption, the proximate cause of emissions (70% of the greenhouse gas emissions from oil and natural gas occur at the final combustion stage). After declining in 2020 and early 2021 due to government-imposed anti-COVID measures, global crude oil demand is back up to 100 million barrels per day. This year has witnessed the largest annual growth in oil demand in history, and assuming available supplies, growth will continue in 2022. Natural gas demand similarly is surging in Asia and Europe, amidst concerns that there will not be enough supplies to meet heating and power generation requirements this winter. Coal markets are booming, with China offering to buy as much supply as possible at whatever price necessary though still boycotting coal from Australia for political reasons.
These trends might be excused as short-term reactions to the world’s emergence from the pandemic, but that would ignore the economic trends that are driving demand growth. Sixty per cent of global oil demand arises from the need to fuel 1.45 billion road vehicles, 29,000 aircraft and 54,000 ships. The rest is needed to produce petrochemicals, plastics, cement, lubricants, rubber, agricultural fertilizers, makeup, medicine and 6000 products in 2,000 categories . Natural gas and coal are essential for heating and air conditioning and for the generation of electricity needed for a large and growing list of appliances and conveniences essential to higher standards of living. The world’s population at about 7.7 billion will exceed 8 billion by 2050. Most growth is in Africa and Asia. People in those continents seek higher incomes and more secure energy supplies, and that means more hydrocarbons.
https://www.cfact.org/2021/11/15/cop-26-the-un-climate-conference-in-glasgow-was-everything-we-expected-bountiful-laughter/
