How House Democrats’ Reconciliation Bill Could Face The Senate Shredder
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is frog-marching her vulnerable members to a political suicide vote on a bill that’s likely dead on arrival in the Senate.
By Christopher Jacobs
November 15, 2021
On November 2, five House Democrats—enough to block the passage of the spending spree that the party hopes to enact via the budget reconciliation process—wrote to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, urging her “to only bring a bill to the floor for which we have a strong level of confidence…will be ruled in order by the Senate parliamentarian and earn passage in the U.S. Senate.”
The lawmakers have justifiable reason for concern. Major pieces of the 2,135-page legislation face serious obstacles in the Senate. Both on policy and on process, senators in the upper chamber could rip the House bill to shreds, meaning more centrist House Democrats face the possibility of taking a political suicide vote soon.
Family Leave
To take but one obvious example: Pelosi reinserted into the bill family leave provisions that Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., objects to. With the legislation needing all Democratic senators to vote for its passage, Manchin (and all of his Democratic colleagues, for that matter) effectively holds a veto over the bill and can have portions stricken if he wishes.
Pelosi’s tactic effectively dared Manchin to vote for an amendment stripping the family leave provisions out of the bill in the Senate. But in doing so, she raised the cost of the House bill from $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion or more. Raising the price tag makes the bill more politically difficult for moderates to defend—particularly if Manchin, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), or others end up substantially cutting its price tag in the Senate after it passes the House.
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https://thefederalist.com/2021/11/15/how-house-democrats-reconciliation-bill-could-face-the-senate-shredder/
