Alicia Smith
@Alicia_Smith19
Quick thread on VA results tonight:
First: How will results be reported? VA recently amended their law to allow pre-processing of mail in ballots ahead of E-day(verifying signatures etc) which allows for faster count, and is what FL/TX have been doing for years. As a result absentee/early votes (particularly in big suburban dem-leaning counties like Loudoun and Fairfax) will be reporter first from about 7pm-8pm.
Expect McAuliffe to start out with big lead as a result (similar to how Biden started out ahead in FL in 2020). After about 8pm Election day votes will start to be counted. Absentee/early votes lean dem, and election day votes lean R, so Youngkin will start clawing his way up after 8pm or so. Big counties like Loudoun say they will likely have all votes counted by around 9/9:30 or so. So pretty fast
Second: Which counties should you be watching for?
Ofc you’ve heard of Fairfax and Loudoun. And these are important (Fairfax is around 15% of total state vote). But there are others which are big counties and are more competitive: Va Beach, Chesapeake, Chesterfield come to mind
Youngkin won’t win Loudoun or Fairfax, but as @Redistrict has mentioned, if Youngkin can hang onto 34% or so on Fairfax and low 40s in Loudoun, he’s doing well. He also needs to probably flip Chesterfield, Va beach, and Chesapeake.