Analysis indicates Dems could lose 41 House seats
September 20, 2021 | Jon Dougherty A new analysis of President Joe Biden’s downward-trending approval ratings finds that his Democratic Party could hemorrhage as many as 41 seats in the House during next year’s midterm elections, or close to as many as then-President Donald Trump’s GOP lost in 2018.
Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies told the Washington Examiner that it is not difficult to tie presidential polling to election outcomes and because Biden’s approval rating continues to decline, he believes the president’s party will lose close to the 41 seats lost during Trump’s midterm, or 34 more than the GOP needs to regain control of the chamber.
This, before states have even redrawn their congressional districts to comport with the 2020 Census.
“As baseball great Yogi Berra famously said, it’s deja vu all over again,” Bolger said as he released his analysis and findings.
Biden’s ratings have been tumbling for months, but his approval took a significant hit following the deadly and turbulent withdrawal from Afghanistan. That said, Bolger noted that he has discovered the Republicans made “significant inroads” with all voting blocs except younger Americans who don’t normally turn out in great numbers on Election Day anyway.
And he said that the congressional ballot is essentially tied — the first time that has happened since 2015, as President Barack Obama’s second term was waning.
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