I believe that Texas will ultimately lose in the U.S. Supreme Court on this one.
The Texas law fails to meet even the strictest test of Roe -- the requirements of the "trimester" standard as written by Blackmun.
As I'm sure you know, Blackmun recognized the three-sided interest of the woman, the state, and the child:
- during the first trimester (up to about 13+ weeks), the state could not intervene in the decision of the woman;
- during the second trimester, there was an increasing interest of the states' right to protect the child vis-a-vis the desires of the woman, which led to...
- the third trimester, when the state could intervene to protect the child.
I'm not mistaken, the Texas law seeks to use the power of the state to prevent an abortion during the first trimester, which is clearly at odds with Roe.
Thus it seems to me, that in order to uphold the Texas law the Supreme Court would have to toss Roe, or at least substantially re-write it.
Otherwise, the Texas law will be struck down.
But... I don't believe the Court is willing to throw out Roe, regardless of the number of "conservatives" who sit there now. My reasoning was explained elsewhere a day ago.
I realize this reply won't be popular, but I call 'em as I see 'em.
And that's how I see, and am calling this one.