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Author Topic: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates  (Read 7314 times)

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #100 on: August 29, 2021, 03:13:10 pm »
10AM advisory.  Pretty much speaks for itself.  Let's all hope and pray this thing now rapidly weakens and spares as many people inland as possible.  As far as the larger towns in that area, seems the ones getting the brunt seem to  be Houma, Thibodeaux, and Morgan City.   Storm has slowed down from 16 mph to 13 mph.  That is not a good trend.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA NEARING THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 90.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 03:15:04 pm by catfish1957 »
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Online libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #101 on: August 29, 2021, 03:14:34 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 29, 2021, 02:48:45 pm
Landfall looks to be about an hour or so away.  Based on radar imagery, looks like Terribonne Parish between Morgan City and Houma.  IF the path holds true, the most direct town in path appears to be this one.  Dulac, Louisana, with a most recent population of 2,458

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulac,_Louisiana


This hurricane is a monster and as you had posted up thread, it could pack a punch of a Cat 5!
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #102 on: August 29, 2021, 03:19:23 pm »
I have mentioned a number of towns and areas that are going to see likely catastrophic effects.  If you have family or friends in these areas, please closely monitor their well being. 
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #103 on: August 29, 2021, 03:33:01 pm »
Initial landfall in the next few minutes.  Based on NOLA radar, it looks to be a marsh penninsula at the terminus of La. State Hwy 1.

And...   the area of Grand Isle (mentioned above) looks like it might be on the edge the NE quadrant of the eye wall. A true worst case scenario. The article earlier said people stayed.  I sure hope not, because they are on a barrier island facing 15 foot storm surge and 150 mph winds.  I fear the worst.
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #104 on: August 29, 2021, 03:56:14 pm »
Hurricane Ida live updates: Ida may be 1 mph short of being Category 5 hurricane

https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/?id=79696173
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #105 on: August 29, 2021, 03:59:19 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #106 on: August 29, 2021, 04:01:11 pm »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #107 on: August 29, 2021, 04:02:32 pm »
11 AM Final update before landfall....  Looks like peak strength may be 150 mph, just 6 mph off making Cat 5. It could still strengthen while in the marshes, but I am guessing it has topped. 


Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, 
recently reported a sustained wind of 89 mph (143 km/h) and a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.0 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yatcht
Club, Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet
above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of
inundation in that area.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #108 on: August 29, 2021, 04:02:54 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #109 on: August 29, 2021, 04:04:29 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #110 on: August 29, 2021, 04:06:42 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 29, 2021, 03:33:01 pm
Initial landfall in the next few minutes.  Based on NOLA radar, it looks to be a marsh penninsula at the terminus of La. State Hwy 1.

And...   the area of Grand Isle (mentioned above) looks like it might be on the edge the NE quadrant of the eye wall. A true worst case scenario. The article earlier said people stayed.  I sure hope not, because they are on a barrier island facing 15 foot storm surge and 150 mph winds.  I fear the worst.

They're reporting on the Weather Channel that the storm doesn't appear to be slowing down ....it's still moving at 15 MPH.  This, according to them, is good news.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #111 on: August 29, 2021, 04:14:35 pm »
Quote from: Right_in_Virginia on August 29, 2021, 04:06:42 pm
They're reporting on the Weather Channel that the storm doesn't appear to be slowing down ....it's still moving at 15 MPH.  This, according to them, is good news.

NHC reported 13 mph earlier, but realize that these storms as they approach the coast have a tendency to wobble which can sometimes fool the forecasters in reporting forward speed.  The million dollar question now, is how the storm will respond to the Bermuda high.  Sometimes these storms as they start dealing with latitudinal corrolis effects and curving around pressure gradients will tend to slow and turn.  How that high interacts with the storm will tell how the forward speed reacts.  Ideally (speed wise) the storm will continue it's 315ish vector and slowly turn north.  If we see a sudden 0/360 instead, I'd start getting concerned with slowing and stalling.  One point that has been missed.....   Early in the track, the NHC predicted a northward turn generally about a 100 miles off shore.  It didn't happen. 
Though not forecasted, I would not be surprised to see a more westward tendency toward track that we are seeing.  Does that put Alexandria in play?  Not really sure, it will be that drastic.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 04:15:50 pm by catfish1957 »
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Online libertybele

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #112 on: August 29, 2021, 04:20:09 pm »
The very dangerous northern eyewall of Hurricane Ida is moving onshore along the southeast Louisiana coast, according to the 12 p.m. EDT update from the National Hurricane Center.

The eyewall is the most dangerous part of a hurricane, which contains the highest winds.

The storm continues to pack winds of 150 mph with higher gusts and is still an extremely dangerous, Category 4 hurricane.

The center of Ida was located around 25 miles from Grand Isle, Louisiana. A wind gust of 104 mph was recently reported at Southwest Pass, Louisiana.

Ida will be making landfall over the next hour or so when the center of the eye is halfway over the coast. Extreme winds and surge will accompany landfall over the next several hours.

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-ida-updates-08-29-21/index.html
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Online corbe

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #113 on: August 29, 2021, 04:22:40 pm »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #114 on: August 29, 2021, 04:24:35 pm »
Quote from: Right_in_Virginia on August 29, 2021, 04:06:42 pm
They're reporting on the Weather Channel that the storm doesn't appear to be slowing down ....it's still moving at 15 MPH.  This, according to them, is good news.

Hmmm...  looking at the NHC forecast.  They have it at 7PM at just west at NOLA.  At 7AM they have it just east of Natchez, MS.  That's about a 100 miles movement over a 12 hour period or....   estimate of 8 mph
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #115 on: August 29, 2021, 04:29:51 pm »
WDSU in NOLA's radar loop gives an excellent view of the storm.  At least until it gets knocked out by the storm

https://www.wdsu.com/weather/radar#
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #116 on: August 29, 2021, 04:31:33 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on August 29, 2021, 04:20:09 pm
[
The center of Ida was located around 25 miles from Grand Isle, Louisiana. A wind gust of 104 mph was recently reported at Southwest Pass, Louisiana.



Those exact cooridinates put Grand Isle on the NE Corner of the eyewall.
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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #117 on: August 29, 2021, 05:01:41 pm »
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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #118 on: August 29, 2021, 05:03:06 pm »
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #119 on: August 29, 2021, 05:03:32 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 29, 2021, 04:24:35 pm
Hmmm...  looking at the NHC forecast.  They have it at 7PM at just west at NOLA.  At 7AM they have it just east of Natchez, MS.  That's about a 100 miles movement over a 12 hour period or....   estimate of 8 mph

Thanks for the update.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #120 on: August 29, 2021, 05:04:02 pm »
Noon NHC update.....


Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made
landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port
Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC).  Data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that
Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150
mph (240 km/h).  The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a
gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club,
Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #121 on: August 29, 2021, 05:04:45 pm »
EMS in NO has been suspended.
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #122 on: August 29, 2021, 05:32:50 pm »
CNN just repotted it’s the 16th anniversary of Katrina hitting New Orleans….
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #123 on: August 29, 2021, 06:50:12 pm »
Yesterday, i mentioned the fact there was a pretty strong dry tongue of air mass AR-OK-TX.  I am thinking that may be why we are seeing less than normal precipitation on the west side of the storm.  Granted the east is aliway wetter, but outside the area of the storm, but there really isn't alot of strong rain bands on the west side
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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #124 on: August 29, 2021, 07:18:51 pm »
Quote from: Right_in_Virginia on August 29, 2021, 03:56:14 pm
Hurricane Ida live updates: Ida may be 1 mph short of being Category 5 hurricane

https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/?id=79696173

I think it's only 'just' that in this day of "...everybody gets a participation trophy", that IDA be awarded CAT 5 Status.    :shrug:
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