The Ambiguity of Strategic Clarity
Alastair Iain Johnston, Tsai Chia-hung, George Yin, and Steven Goldstein
June 9, 2021
There is a lot of war talk in the air in Washington. The frequency of China’s navy and air force activities around Taiwan has increased of late. Politicians, officials, pundits, and experts in the United States are speculating about the increased probability of a military conflict over Taiwan. Almost everyone has ideas for strengthening deterrence against a Chinese attack on Taiwan. There is no agreement, however, about how this should be done. Some argue that the United States should maintain “strategic ambiguity” in its relationship with Taiwan, whereby the scope and scale of any American military and diplomatic support for Taiwan in the event of an attack from China is deliberately unclear. Uncertainty will instill caution in China’s calculus and will remind both Beijing and Taipei that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence. Others argue for abandoning “strategic ambiguity” in favor of “strategic clarity,” whereby the United States clearly signals that it will intervene militarily to defend Taiwan.
For all the pressure inside Washington from Congress and from some of the think tank world to endorse strategic clarity, however, there is little systematic evidence to show whether strategic clarity is likely to enhance the deterrence of China’s use of force. We report here findings from surveys that we conducted in Taiwan that suggest strategic clarity could help enhance deterrence by increasing the willingness of Taiwanese people to fight, but at the same time could weaken deterrence by increasing popular support for de jure independence, thus reducing China’s confidence that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence. This suggests that in order for the United States to maximize its ability to deter China from attacking Taiwan, it should credibly communicate both resolve to use force in Taipei’s defense, and clarity about preventing Taiwanese independence.
The Competing Logics of Ambiguity and Clarity
https://warontherocks.com/2021/06/the-ambiguity-of-strategic-clarity/
