IRI ENSO Forecast
IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume
Published: February 19, 2021
Note on interpreting model forecasts
The following graph and table show forecasts made by dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Nino 3.4 region for nine overlapping 3-month periods. Note that the expected skills of the models, based on historical performance, are not equal to one another. The skills also generally decrease as the lead time increases. Thirdly, forecasts made at some times of the year generally have higher skill than forecasts made at other times of the year--namely, they are better when made between June and December than when they are made between February and May. Differences among the forecasts of the models reflect both differences in model design, and actual uncertainty in the forecast of the possible future SST scenario.
Because of occasional data corrections and late model runs following the time of ENSO product issuance, the data shown in the ENSO forecast table and the ENSO plume graph may not always match. The best source of the ENSO forecast data is
http://iri.columbia.edu/~forecast/ensofcst/Data/ensofcst_ALLtoMMYY where MM is the month number and YY is the year.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
