NOAA projects 30-percent maximum Great Lakes ice cover for 2021 winter

[rangerrebew]

NOAA projects 30-percent maximum Great Lakes ice cover for 2021 winter
Improved experimental ice forecast to be updated every two weeks

NOAA scientists project the maximum Great Lakes ice cover for 2021 will be 30 percent, higher than last year’s maximum of 19.5 percent, but part of a long-term pattern of declining ice cover likely driven by climate change. The maximum typically occurs between mid-February and early March.

The 30-percent projected maximum ice cover forecast for this winter is an average of maximum ice coverage across the five lakes.

Using an improved forecast system, scientists at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory this year will update seasonal ice cover projections twice a month.  Each iteration will take into account the most recent surface air temperature data leading to a more accurate forecast.

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2706/NOAA-projects-30-percent-average-Great-Lakes-ice-cover-for-2021-winter

[rangerrebew]

Wow!  Here it is, only half way through the Great Lakes winter freeze.  NOAA has really put themselves out in making the prediction already.  Why, in mid March the lakes will begin their natural spring thaw so they may not have enough time to verify the prediction.