Inside The Bayesian Priory

[rangerrebew]

Inside The Bayesian Priory
18 hours ago
Willis Eschenbach
 

Here are a few random quotes and thoughts about the paper called An observation-based scaling model for climate sensitivity estimates and global projections to 2100. This was the first statement that caught my eye:

    We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference which allows us to analytically calculate the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity as: 1.7+0.3−0.2  K and 2.4+1.3−0.6  K respectively (likely range).

I always get nervous when someone says that they are using “Bayesian inference”. The problem is not with the Bayesian theory, which is correct. It basically says that the probability of something happening depends in part on what went before, called the “Bayesian Priors”. And clearly, in many situations this is true.

The problem is in the choice of the priors. This depends on human judgement, plus some pre-existing theory as to what is going on … I’m sure you can see the problems with that. First, human judgment is … well … let me call it “not universally correct” and leave it at that. And next … just what pre-existing theory of climate are we supposed to use when we are investigating the theory of climate?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/26/inside-the-bayesian-priory/