The rivals on the right: Why the new election will be much tougher for NetanyahuThe PM managed to topple the government without handing Gantz his promised rotation, but Sa’ar and Bennett would never have trusted him, and their anti-Bibi camp is risingTimes of Israel, Dec 23, 2020
The Knesset dissolved at midnight, triggering automatic elections in exactly 90 days’ time, on March 23, 2021. It will be the fourth snap election in less than two years.
The general consensus is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has won the day. By enticing rival Benny Gantz into a unity government after three indecisive elections, Netanyahu shattered his opponent’s broad center-left alliance and then spent the months since wriggling his way out of their rotation agreement.
Gantz has emphatically lost. The once-powerful Blue and White alliance has dropped from 35 seats in April 2019 to scarcely six in this month’s polls. Once seen as the “most fitting†candidate for prime minister by some 40% of the country, Gantz couldn’t muster more than 4% in a Monday poll by Channel 12 that asked the same question.
But though Gantz has lost, that doesn’t mean Netanyahu has won. In a bitter irony for Netanyahu, his path to outright victory has only grown more difficult with Gantz’s collapse.
If one thinks of the four elections held between April 2019 and March 2021 not as four distinct political events but as a single, long-running contest, Netanyahu’s situation appears to have worsened this week.
Over the last three races, he led a Likud list that won between 32 and 36 seats at the ballot box. Likud now polls around 28.
Far more importantly, the diverse but vehemently anti-Netanyahu coalition once led by Gantz has struggled to clear the 61-seat threshold for a parliamentary majority. Over the past two weeks, by contrast, those parties that declare themselves opposed to Netanyahu’s continued rule are polling at close to 80 seats.
All the major news outlets conducted polls on Tuesday after it became clear that the 23rd Knesset would be dissolving by midnight. All found that an anti-Netanyahu majority, narrow but persistent, exists among centrist and rightist parties, without need for left-wing or Arab-majority factions.
That’s a dangerous seachange for Netanyahu.
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