They lost me at "devastating pandemic". The only factor that affects the shale oil industry (or any industry for that matter) is price. And the reason oil prices are so volatile is because there is such a wide variance in production costs.
THere were two steps in the spring price drop.
First, the Russians and Saudis had their walkout at OPEC+. That announcement was throughout the trades, and meant there would be a surplus. The effect was dropping WTI to about $20/barrel. Prior to that, the company I was geosteering wells for was looking at increasing CAPEX in the region I have done most of my wells in, and increasing their rig count from 9 to 11. The future was so bright, I had to wear shades.
Overnight, that increase went on hold, pending an agreement in production quotas between the Saudis and Russians, something expected to take a couple of weeks.
Then, the announcement of COVID's effects on the industry (Well, not COVID, but the reaction to it, flattening the curve, lockdowns, shuttered businesses, working from home, etc.) sent prices into a death spiral to zero, and as futures contracts matured with no storage nor demand, dove into negative territory for the first time in my lifetime as panicked investors and others realized they had to take delivery on contracts when there was no demand for that oil, and no place to put it.
Trump opened the SPR for storage, causing the market to recover back into positive territory, at the same time, adding oil to the SPR for rent for that space, effectively putting oil in the SPR for less than any president since the SPR was formed. A masterful business solution that was truly a win-win for the industry and the American people.
In short order, prices were stabilized more by reducing production domestically, an action some companies could absorb better than others. Yep there were a few bankruptcies, more in some basins than others.
But as you say, the deciding factor will be price, a result of demand, and the ability to transport that oil to markets hungry for it. Wells restarted in the Bakken have suffered far less damage than anticipated, and there is a roughly 400,000 BOPD capacity waiting in the wings for a return to business as usual. Something which may not happen as quickly as we'd like because of the damage done to the small business sector, which the oil industry will not be able to lift like it did during the boom.