Poll

2020 Electoral College Predictions

Trump wins by less than 5 EV
3 (15.8%)
Trump wins by greater than 10 EV
3 (15.8%)
Trump wins by a Landslide, greater than 40 EV
6 (31.6%)
The dems steal a squeaker
7 (36.8%)

Total Members Voted: 19

Voting closed: November 11, 2020, 05:50:21 pm

Author Topic: 2020 Electoral College Predictions  (Read 2791 times)

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Offline Hoodat

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2020 Electoral College Predictions
« on: October 31, 2020, 05:24:19 pm »
With the polls opening in less than 72 hours, all eyes will be on the Electoral Map.  As each State reports its numbers, calculators will be busy tallying up to that magical 270 vote number.

What say you, fellow Briefers?  How do you predict the tally will go?  Let's see everyone's predictions on how many electoral votes Trump will end up with.

268 or less - Biden wins
269 - Riots in the House
270 or more - TRUUUUUUUUUUUUUMP!

There is an interactive map at this link:  https://www.270towin.com/

(Note:  Mr. Corbe could add a poll with choices like 'Trump by <5', 'Trump by >10', Biden by >250', etc.)
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

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"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

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Offline Hoodat

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2020, 05:28:24 pm »
Trump - 310
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

-Dwight Eisenhower-


"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

-Ayn Rand-

Offline libertybele

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2020, 05:41:39 pm »
Trump - 310

I'm close to that as well --- I calculated around 320.  Hoping he'll take MI, MN, PA, WI, FL, TX   He wins those in addition to the expected GOP wins, he's got it.  He loses FL or TX (which I'm concerned), he's lost.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 05:43:30 pm by libertybele »
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline libertybele

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2020, 06:58:54 pm »
Anyone else?  I'd love to see what numbers other Briefers come up with.
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline The_Reader_David

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2020, 09:25:50 pm »
I'm going with Trump 302, unless massive vote fraud in PA gives it to Biden, in which case Trump 282.
And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know what this was all about.

Offline libertybele

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2020, 09:27:24 pm »
I'm going with Trump 302, unless massive vote fraud in PA gives it to Biden, in which case Trump 282.

Count on massive voter fraud which is why I am hoping that Trump wins by an undeniable, uncontestable, landslide.
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline Fishrrman

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 12:42:37 am »
I was just thinking about this earlier.

I had earlier predicted that Mr. Trump would win with between 270 and 284 electoral votes.
But I'm revising that downward.
I'm guessing he'll get either 270 or 271.

He'll win all the Southern states with the exception of Virginia.
He'll win the midwest with the exception of Illiniois

States he must win (to reach 270):
Iowa
Arizona
Michigan
Pennsylvania
If he wins that separate congressional district in Maine that went for him last time, he'll reach 271.

States I predict he WON'T win this time:
Wisconsin
Minnesota (both of these will be close)
New Mexico
Nevada
Of course the West Coast and Colorado
New England (except for that possible district in Maine)
New Hampshire -might- come into play
New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware

There will be no clear winner on election night, possibly not for days or weeks afterwards. I'm sensing there's going to be all kinds of trouble in Pennsylvania, probably will end up in the Supreme Court.

I'd enjoy being proven completely wrong.
But that's how I see it this time.

Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 12:55:43 am »
Over 300, and man if he could win that popiular vote...
The Republic is lost.

Offline montanajoe

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 01:08:23 am »
Biden...340... :shrug:

Offline Absalom

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 01:52:29 am »
With the polls opening in less than 72 hours, all eyes will be on the Electoral Map.  As each State reports its numbers, calculators will be busy tallying up to that magical 270 vote number.
What say you, fellow Briefers?  How do you predict the tally will go?  Let's see everyone's predictions on how many electoral votes Trump will end up with.
268 or less - Biden wins
269 - Riots in the House
270 or more - TRUUUUUUUUUUUUUMP!
-----------------------------
Fair enough.
A contrary EC Vote today, from Rasmussen is:
Biden 350 and Trump 158.

i

Offline Bigun

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 03:20:43 am »
Trump 320
"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline roamer_1

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 06:15:04 am »
Tumpy... Under 300, likely under 290, probably in the 280's ... With the popular vote near a tie, with a slight lean toward Tumpy taking that too.

Offline jafo2010

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 07:38:15 am »
Trump with 302 to 318 if PA does not reek of voter fraud.  If PA goes all out with voter fraud, then that number reduces to 282 to 302.

In any case, Trump wins.  We will all know if PA stinks to the high heavens with voter fraud, and we will know if it is the case, and I am fearful that will be the case.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 11:29:05 am »
Trump with 302 to 318 if PA does not reek of voter fraud.  If PA goes all out with voter fraud, then that number reduces to 282 to 302.

In any case, Trump wins.  We will all know if PA stinks to the high heavens with voter fraud, and we will know if it is the case, and I am fearful that will be the case.
I think the voter fraud will be there, on an unprecedented scale.

The "polls" have been setting the point spread for the fraudsters, ballot harvesters, and corrupt vote counts for months, just so people wouldn't cry 'Foul!".
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline cato potatoe

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 12:32:46 pm »
Biden - 334

Biden flips NC or GA, FL, PA, WI, MI, AZ, and one of the congressional districts in ME or NE.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 03:40:27 pm by cato potatoe »

Offline catfish1957

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 01:03:22 pm »
Based on my RCP build your own map, I have it :

Biden 280
Trump 258

PA vote fraud decides it.

He loses five several close votes in PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ.    Basically throws snake eyes on all 5.

Popular vote very close too.  Biden 49-47
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 01:07:36 pm by catfish1957 »
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 01:39:59 pm »
Anyone else?  I'd love to see what numbers other Briefers come up with.
@libertybele

The polls are showing not many points between Trump and Biden.  Subtract a million mail ballots being not counted due to voter error, and Trump gets more electors.

Polls put Texas in color pink, meaning it could go either way.  Then, last night saw/read Republicans in Texas have gone to court to toss out 1,500 ballots that were dropped off by voters in their car at a polling location.  They drive there, stay in their car, are given a ballot after proving who they are, they vote the ballot, come back through the line and give it to an official.  This was said fairly fast and I don't know the location where this is happening, however, it is likely Harris County (Houston area).

There will likely be more information on this today, and that is a lot of ballots in a tight election.

Different states choose electors in different ways.  To know how your state does it, put your state's name in search, followed by "Electors".  That will bring up your state's laws/rules about choosing electors. 

Before this election, I knew Texas Republican electors would be the ones to vote for our president as Texas elections always went majority Republican.  Since Texas is now "pink", I do not know if Democrats will be on top and their electors, of course, will vote for Biden.

I wish I could say it will be Republican electors across the nation, but I can't.

Offline Hoodat

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 02:08:11 pm »
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

-Dwight Eisenhower-


"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

-Ayn Rand-

Offline XenaLee

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 03:08:44 pm »
I'm close to that as well --- I calculated around 320.  Hoping he'll take MI, MN, PA, WI, FL, TX   He wins those in addition to the expected GOP wins, he's got it. He loses FL or TX (which I'm concerned), he's lost.

He won't lose.

He was an unknown quantity in 2016... with the cloud of scandal surrounding him.   It's different now.  Intelligent Americans know his record and know his abilities.... as well as how the Democrats lied and distorted his loyalties.   Trump will win and win big (bigger) this time.
No quarter given to the enemy within...ever.

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 03:12:38 pm »
He loses FL or TX (which I'm concerned), he's lost.

In the last debate Biden handed out pink slips to one million TX oil workers, and 2 million workers in ancillary or other jobs and industries dependant and supportive of the oil industry.

I guarantee Biden loses Texas
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Victoria33

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 03:43:17 pm »
Anyone else?  I'd love to see what numbers other Briefers come up with.
@libertybele
@mystery-ak
@Cyber Liberty

127,000 Ballots
I mentioned some Republicans were trying to get drive-through ballots rejected.  It is in Harris County (Houston area).

Just saw the details of that in the Dallas Morning News.  This is the actual number of ballots - 127,000.  Paper says the case is brought by a wealthy conservative activist, a Republican state representative and two GOP candidates".  Hmm, their names are further down in the article:
Activist Steven Hotze
State Rep. Steve Toth of The Woodlands (in Montgomery County, where I have property).
Congressional candidate Wendell Champion.
Judicial candidate Sharon Hemphill.

There are ten drive-through voting places throughout Harris county.  These Republicans say drive-through voting locations are illegal.  Harris county did that during the last Primary, and no one said anything.  The Texas Secretary of State, whose job it is to hold elections, had approved the drive-though voting locations before they were used in the Primary.

It also says the State Republican leadership has stayed silent on the issue.  That is the  only thing they can do until a Judge rules tomorrow, Monday.
127,000 ballots - count them or dump them.???
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 03:48:54 pm by Victoria33 »

Offline catfish1957

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2020, 03:47:59 pm »
@libertybele
@mystery-ak
@Cyber Liberty

127,000 Ballots
I mentioned some Republicans were trying to get drive-through ballots rejected.  It is in Harris County (Houston area).

Just saw the details of that in the Dallas Morning News.  This is the actual number of ballots - 127,000.  Paper says the case is brought by a wealthy conservative activist, a Republican state representative and two GOP candidates".  Hmm, their names are further down in the article:
Activist Steven Hotze
State Rep. Steve Toth of The Woodlands (in Montgomery County, where I have property).
Congressional candidate Wendell Champion.
Judicial candidate Sharon Hemphill.

There are ten drive-through voting places throughout the county.  These Republicans say drive-through voting locations are illegal.  Harris county did that during the last Primary, and no one said anything.  The Texas Secretary of State, whose job it is to hold elections, had approved the drive-though voting locations before they were used in the Primary.

It also says the State Republican leadership has stayed silent on the issue.  That is the  only thing they can do until a Judge rules tomorrow, Monday.
127,000 ballots - count them or dump them.???

Drive Through ballots breaks all traditional elements of chain of custody requirements.  Process will be wrought with fraud.
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline sneakypete

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2020, 05:05:11 pm »
I was just thinking about this earlier.

I had earlier predicted that Mr. Trump would win with between 270 and 284 electoral votes.
But I'm revising that downward.
I'm guessing he'll get either 270 or 271.

Quote
He'll win all the Southern states with the exception of Virginia.

@Fishrrman

To be fair to the south,Virginia is no longer a southern state. It is a suburb of DC.

He'll win the midwest with the exception of Illiniois

States he must win (to reach 270):
Iowa
Arizona
Michigan
Pennsylvania
If he wins that separate congressional district in Maine that went for him last time, he'll reach 271.

States I predict he WON'T win this time:
Wisconsin
Minnesota (both of these will be close)
New Mexico
Nevada
Of course the West Coast and Colorado
New England (except for that possible district in Maine)
New Hampshire -might- come into play
New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware

There will be no clear winner on election night, possibly not for days or weeks afterwards. I'm sensing there's going to be all kinds of trouble in Pennsylvania, probably will end up in the Supreme Court.

I'd enjoy being proven completely wrong.
But that's how I see it this time.
Anyone who isn't paranoid in 2021 just isn't thinking clearly!

Offline sneakypete

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2020, 05:06:25 pm »
-----------------------------
Fair enough.
A contrary EC Vote today, from Rasmussen is:
Biden 350 and Trump 158.

i

@Absalom

In your dreams. Granted,there are a LOT of fools in this country,but not that many.
Anyone who isn't paranoid in 2021 just isn't thinking clearly!

Offline Absalom

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Re: 2020 Electoral College Predictions
« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2020, 05:15:15 pm »
@Absalom
In your dreams. Granted, there are a LOT of fools in this country, but not that many.
----------------------------------
A demurral.
We are in our quagmire because we are overwhelmed by buffoons who
believe any/all politics/politicians are the solution to anything/everything!!!