Battle for the Senate Too Close to Call

[mystery-ak]

Battle for the Senate Too Close to Call
By Rick Moran Oct 25, 2020 9:51 AM ET

These last 10 days before the election will be a blur of frantic activity by candidates. Donald Trump and Joe Biden will race around the country and — if one of them doesn’t call a “lid” on campaigning for the day — they are likely to hit 3 or 4 states in a single day.

The dozen or so still competitive House races are being fought in the trenches and on the airwaves as candidates spend the last of their millions on ads. Republicans almost certainly have no chance to win back the lower chamber and it will become even harder after Democratic Party activists at the state level redraw district lines following the 2020 census should Democrats flip enough legislatures. The GOP better get used to minority status in the House for a while.

But statewide races have always been a different story and in modern times, with the nation cleaved into two by the partisan divide, they have become horribly expensive and very close. That’s why even though Republicans won’t take the House in 2020, they may very well hang on to the Senate in what is shaping up to be a very Democratic year.

For Democrats to flip the upper chamber, they are going to have to win a net of 4 seats to gain control. There are about a dozen competitive races nationwide. Some of the more vulnerable Republicans like Corey Gardner of Colorado have already been written off by the national party. But most of the other contested seats are well within reach and with a little luck, Republicans could scrape by.

The GOP has a couple of things going for it. There are at least two Senate seats held by Democrats that the Republicans have a good chance of winning. Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama appears to be toast against Republican Tommy Tuberville and GOP candidate John James is giving Democrat Gary Peters all he can handle in Michigan. If Republicans prevail, Democrats will have to win 6 races — about half the contested contests — to take control.

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https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2020/10/25/battle-for-the-senate-too-close-to-call-n1085494

[catfish1957]

I have been watching this pretty closely, especially in light that Trump might still lose.  Depending on November 3rd the senate can be anywhere + or - 5 for the winning party.  That many races are that close.

[skeeter]

I have been watching this pretty closely, especially in light that Trump might still lose.  Depending on November 3rd the senate can be anywhere + or - 5 for the winning party.  That many races are that close.

This is worrisome as we know close races will always fall to the rats.

[Lando Lincoln]

The glass-is-half-full part of me says the "Trump Surge" will pull the Senate on its coat tails.  The glass-is-half-empty part of me says we are doomed. 

[Idiot]

I'm thinking the Repubs will lose the Presidency, the Senate and the Dems will keep the House.  I think our country is that far gone.....  If the Repubs are able to capture ANY of these, I'll consider it a miracle.

[Jazzhead]

The one silver lining is that the Dems haven't been running on their socialist policy prescriptions but rather on simple opposition to Trump.   They will have no mandate for radicalism and if they act too aggressively the GOP may be roaring back in just two years.

[corbe]

Sheryl Crow & Steve Earle - "Time Has Come Today" - live - Chambers Brothers


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[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I'm thinking the Repubs will lose the Presidency, the Senate and the Dems will keep the House.  I think our country is that far gone.....  If the Repubs are able to capture ANY of these, I'll consider it a miracle.

Same. Hope I'm pleasantly surprised.

The 2012 election bit me hard.

[corbe]

   We'll pick up 2 in the Senate AND Trump but lose the House after making small inroads, there. 
   My predictions and I'm sticking with it.


*Sounds like a great Poll idea and thanks to whomever, I needed some inspiration.   

[Cyber Liberty]

Trump is having a Rally in my little town in AZ.  He'll win here, but I think the purpose of the rally is to shore up McSally.  She's in a tough race, and has no chance of winning if she doesn't carry Mohave County, where Rs outnumber the Ds 3:1.  She is not popular here, so he has something to sell in Mohave.  There's a reason for this Rally, and it isn't him.

[libertybele]

I'm thinking the Repubs will lose the Presidency, the Senate and the Dems will keep the House.  I think our country is that far gone.....  If the Repubs are able to capture ANY of these, I'll consider it a miracle.

   I agree ... in addition with all the leftists corruption there is no way we'll see a Trump victory or a GOP Senate majority.

[catfish1957]

Sheryl Crow & Steve Earle - "Time Has Come Today" - live - Chambers Brothers

Almost as much of a botch job as Celine Dion did with her AC DC cover. Ugh,,,

[Lando Lincoln]

  I agree ... in addition with all the leftists corruption there is no way we'll see a Trump victory or a GOP Senate majority.

C'mon 'bele!  I need hope!  I need optimism! 

[corbe]

[Right_in_Virginia]

I agree ... in addition with all the leftists corruption there is no way we'll see a Trump victory or a GOP Senate majority.

@libertybele Are you one of the people who are afraid predicting a victory will jinx it? 

[catfish1957]

C'mon 'bele!  I need hope!  I need optimism!

Check the Rasumussen Poll thread.  Trump up by 1.  I have said on several threads that Biden's debate comment on elimination of nearly 10M oil jobs may be his campaign's death blow.  And make no mistake about it.  Not only are his coat tails short, watch many in his party fleeing this position in the last days of the campaign. 2 weeks ago, I would have given us a 35-40% of retaining the senate.  Now?  50/50.

[libertybele]

C'mon 'bele!  I need hope!  I need optimism!

I wish I could spread some optimism, but I am a realist.  I am being realistic here.  Three things stick out in my mind; #1 The close race in '18 between Cruz and Beto in "conservative" TX, with Cruz winning by a narrow margin is concerning. People can spin that or give reason that bad blood remained because Cruz told people to vote their conscience, but that narrow win in TX to me was indicative of the changing demographics. #2 Biden has been reported hiding in his basement, etc.,, -- IF the DEMS were not absolutely confident in winning the WH, Harris and every DEM would be out there 24-7 campaigning for Biden ... that's not the case.  #3 DEM early voting ballots outnumber Republicans by 10,000,000.  This is reality.  I don't see a shred of optimism in any of these scenarios.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Check the Rasumussen Poll thread.  Trump up by 1.  I have said on several threads that Biden's debate comment on elimination of nearly 10M oil jobs may be his campaign's death blow.  And make no mistake about it.  Not only are his coat tails short, watch many in his party fleeing this position in the last days of the campaign. 2 weeks ago, I would have given us a 35-40% of retaining the senate.  Now?  50/50.

Trump's internal polling shows him up in all of the battleground states (some pretty big time).  BTW, I saw an earlier thread on fear in Texas ... rest assured, Texas will be in the Trump column.

You can tell POTUS is feeling pretty damn good today .... he's doing three rallies in PA -- in the rain -- and having a helluva great time.

Oh, and Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has POTUS at 52% approval. 

We are looking mighty good!! 

[libertybele]

@libertybele Are you one of the people who are afraid predicting a victory will jinx it?

No.  Not at all.  I am being realistic. 

[Right_in_Virginia]

I wish I could spread some optimism, but I am a realist.  I am being realistic here.  Three things stick out in my mind; #1 The close race in '18 between Cruz and Beto in "conservative" TX, with Cruz winning by a narrow margin is concerning. People can spin that or give reason that bad blood remained because Cruz told people to vote their conscience, but that narrow win in TX to me was indicative of the changing demographics.

Forget the Cruz anomaly @libertybele .   Current polling (real polling) has Texas safely in the President's column.  The Biden team knows this which explains why they're cancelling a massive TV buy in the state.

#2 Biden has been reported hiding in his basement, etc.,, -- IF the DEMS were not absolutely confident in winning the WH, Harris and every DEM would be out there 24-7 campaigning for Biden ... that's not the case. 

Fraud won't help them in Texas.  PA is the trouble spot ... which is why the President's spending so much time there playing Biden's promise to end fracking (and raise taxes) on jumbotrons during rallies all over the state. 

The Trump campaign is also going back to the Supreme Court asking for another ruling on late ballots in PA.

The Biden team is actually counting on ads working in lieu of a live candidate.  I'm guessing right about now they're beginning to see the error in their ways.   

#3 DEM early voting ballots outnumber Republicans by 10,000,000.  This is reality.  I don't see a shred of optimism in any of these scenarios.

To begin with there are more registered democrats than republicans. But the difference between R and D early votes cast this year  is less than in 2016 -- we're closing this gap---and this was unexpected.  It also doesn't capture who the democrats are voting for in the all important parts of the rust belt. 

And remember, Republicans don't do mail in voting en masse ... especially this year.  We're a vote in person kindda group. Even if we vote early, we stand in line and cast the vote ourselves.

[Right_in_Virginia]

No.  Not at all.  I am being realistic.

In all candor, methinks you're being a tad pessimistic.  (Take this as good news and not an insult)

[Right_in_Virginia]

[skeeter]

Check the Rasumussen Poll thread.  Trump up by 1.  I have said on several threads that Biden's debate comment on elimination of nearly 10M oil jobs may be his campaign's death blow.  And make no mistake about it.  Not only are his coat tails short, watch many in his party fleeing this position in the last days of the campaign. 2 weeks ago, I would have given us a 35-40% of retaining the senate.  Now?  50/50.

I don't get the negativity from some. These contests do not stay in one place - they wax and they wane. If the polls are IN ANY WAY accurate Trump is moving in the right direction and is exactly where he needs to be one week out.

[Cyber Liberty]

I don't get the negativity from some. These contests do not stay in one place - they wax and they wane. If the polls are IN ANY WAY accurate Trump is moving in the right direction and is exactly where he needs to be one week out.

The people who gather these numbers have dropped all pretense of not being on one side.  Usually they mask it some, but they've gone all-in like never before, in an attempt to depress the voters into giving up and not voting.