Trafalgar Group Pollster Issues Voter Fraud Red Flag in Pennsylvania
Oct 19, 2020
RUSH: So, ladies and gentlemen, why are the Democrats trying to extend the deadline for absentee and mail-in ballots to be considered valid after Election Day? Why is Pelosi running around fiddling with the 25th Amendment? I think that actually is a dry run. That’s a trial run to see how easily they’re gonna be able to get rid of Plugs if Plugs wins the presidency.
Point is, these clowns are engaging in all kinds of behavior that belies the so-called confidence they all have in their double-digit lead and insurmountable lead leading to undeniable victory.
Another story. Pollster who called the Trump win in 2016 — that is, the Trafalgar Group — they’re back with their 2020 call, and they’ve issued a big red flag in Pennsylvania. “The latest state polling by the Trafalgar Group predicts another win for Trump in the upper 270s to low 280s in the Electoral College.†But the CEO, Robert Cahaly, highlights a couple of big cautions for Republicans.
He appeared in a lengthy interview with the editors, podcast, National Review. And Robert Cahaly told Rich Lowry that he predicts Trump’s gonna win battleground states — Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Texas. “He said things are tighter in Wisconsin and Arizona, though Cahaly says Trump has the lead and will ‘probably win’ in Arizona. In Michigan, where Senatorial candidate John James has a slight lead, Cahaly says that a combination of James’s strength, hatred for Governor Whitmer’s COVID response and her job killing Green New Deal, and the Trump economy will propel the president to a win there.â€
The red flag, Mr. Cahaly of Trafalgar says, is Pennsylvania. He predicts a Trump win, but he said the state is ripe for voter fraud. Quote, “I believe Pennsylvania to be the number one state that Trump could win and have stolen from him through voter fraud. Pennsylvania has had a lot of voter fraud over the years and giving people unsolicited absentee ballots is literally like giving voter fraud operations steroids. I think it’s the state he’s most likely to win and not get the votes from.â€
Well, there are plenty of times since he’s issued his warning here. October 17th, 18th. There’s time to take action here. He also “said that the built-in ‘social desirability bias’ – telling pollsters the politically correct answer – is at work as usual but believes it may be responsible for as many as a five to eight points difference in the actual polling numbers. That’s a huge gap that many pollsters, he claims, don’t attempt to mitigate in their sampling. He said his short polls, taken by text, email, phone and by other digital means, take into consideration such questions (that other pollsters have stolen) as ‘who is your neighbor voting for’ and ‘do you own a hunting or fishing license’?†That kind of thing. Those kinds of questions Cahaly asked.
The question, who’s your neighbor voting for? That, as you know, Gallup tried that, and they showed that people think, voters believe by 56% that Trump is gonna win, even though they may not say that to pollsters.
So this gap, the social desirability bias, telling pollsters the politically correct answer instead of what you really are gonna do, may be responsible for as many as a five- to eight-point difference in the actually polling number, meaning it could show Biden five to eight points stronger than he actually is in Pennsylvania.
So Cahaly that says most pollsters will look at that and say that’s too big. I’m not even gonna mess with trying to figure that out, and then they just report it. Voter fraud, Pennsylvania. That’s the red flag warning from Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: And yet another story from the Biden campaign. The source here — I think this was from Hot Air — it’s a blog post. “Memo from Biden campaign manager: Our polling shows Trump is neck-and-neck with us in the battlegrounds. This race is far closer than some of the punditry we are seeing on Twitter and on TV would suggest.†So put that in your back pocket and sit on it.
