Hurricane Delta forms, expected to make landfall in Louisiana

[Elderberry]

NOLA BY CARLIE KOLLATH WELLS 10/5/2020

Tropical Storm Delta formed Monday morning and is expected to make landfall in Louisiana, forecasters said.

The current track from the National Hurricane Center has Delta making landfall Friday as a Category 2 hurricane in southeast Louisiana, but the track has an average error of 160 to 200 miles this far out.

Heavy rain, dangerous storm surge and gusty winds are all possible, depending on the track and intensity of the system, along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle, forecasters said. Now is the time for residents to make plans and prepare.

Forecasters also are watching Tropical Storm Gamma, which is weakening in the Gulf of Mexico. It is near the Yucatan peninsula and is not expected to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Here's what to know about the tropics as of Monday morning.

Tropical Storm Delta forms in the Caribbean

As of 7 a.m., Tropical Storm Delta was about 130 miles south of Negril, Jamaica, and about 270 miles southeast of Grand Cayman.

More: https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_a43baedc-06fb-11eb-b3ec-37186d000afd.html

[Victoria33]

@Elderberry

Thanks for posting this - will have to keep up with this as the map shows it missing Texas by a tiny bit - a tiny bit to the west and it is in Texas.

[Elderberry]

Delta explodes into Cat 4 storm, could be stronger as it charges Gulf Coast

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist 10/6/2020

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/delta-forecast-to-strike-us-as-major-hurricane/824981

AccuWeather meteorologists have put the Gulf Coast of the United States on high alert for what could be a disastrous strike later this week by a very dangerous hurricane. Overnight and through early Tuesday morning, Hurricane Delta escalated quickly into a Category 4 storm and forecasters warn it could strengthen even more before it strikes the Yucatan Peninsula. After that, forecasters expect Delta to emerge over the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it could undergo even further strengthening. 

The hurricane’s winds had increased to 130 mph by 11:20 a.m. EDT Tuesday just over 24 hours after it became the 25th tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Delta is the first major hurricane to churn across the Atlantic during the month of October since Hurricane Michael in 2018. Delta's intensification was the most extreme in 15 years for an October hurricane. The storm's maximum sustained winds increased by a whopping 70 mph — from 40 mph to 110 mph — in its first 24 hours as a named storm. Only Hurricane Wilma in 2005 exploded in a more significant fashion over that same 24-hour period.

Delta was chugging along west-northwest at 16 mph and was located about 315 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, on Tuesday morning.   

Satellite images showed that Delta was an incredibly compact hurricane on Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extended outward only up to 25 miles from the storm’s center, but a small eye about 6 miles across had developed, a sign that forecasters said signified rapid strengthening.   

More at link.

[catfish1957]

@Elderberry

Thanks for posting this - will have to keep up with this as the map shows it missing Texas by a tiny bit - a tiny bit to the west and it is in Texas.

10 am advisory has shifted it westward.  Cone is now from Galveston to AL/FL border.  Projected path, just east of Pecan Island.

One bit of interest though....   Since 1851, there has never been a major hurricane Cat 3 or larger hit the Texas Coast after October 1.  Not saying it can't happen, but that is the climatological history.

[Wingnut]

Gulf water close to the coast of TX, LA and Panhandle FL is cooler than normal.  In the low 70's.   Storm expected to weaken before it hit land.  So that is a good thing....sort of.

[catfish1957]

Gulf water close to the coast of TX, LA and Panhandle FL is cooler than normal.  In the low 70's.   Storm expected to weaken before it hit land.  So that is a good thing....sort of.

Very true.  OTOH, a Cat 4 hitting those cool water?   Might not be much weakening

[Wingnut]

Very true.  OTOH, a Cat 4 hitting those cool water?   Might not be much weakening

The 4 am report said it will weaken to a 3 then a 2 before it hits.    Still conjecture.  The modles suck as it isn't evn in the GOM as of yet.

[catfish1957]

The 4 am report said it will weaken to a 3 then a 2 before it hits.    Still conjecture.  The modles suck as it isn't evn in the GOM as of yet.

If the storm slows on its approach the cooler water could have substantially more weakening influence.  But if you look at the track, it appears this thing will be zipping along.  Fast hurricanes are impacted less by ocean latent heat.  But like you said it is all conjecture, and anything coming from the NHC (past 72 hrs.) is pretty much a guess, and trying to extract a consensus on models.

[Wingnut]

If the storm slows on its approach the cooler water could have substantially more weakening influence.  But if you look at the track, it appears this thing will be zipping along.  Fast hurricanes are impacted less by ocean latent heat.  But like you said it is all conjecture, and anything coming from the NHC is pretty much a guess, and trying to extract a consensus on models.

 

[GrouchoTex]

10 am advisory has shifted it westward.  Cone is now from Galveston to AL/FL border.  Projected path, just east of Pecan Island.

One bit of interest though....   Since 1851, there has never been a major hurricane Cat 3 or larger hit the Texas Coast after October 1.  Not saying it can't happen, but that is the climatological history.

That kinda sucks, not to wish ill will on our neighbors to the east, of course.

[catfish1957]

That kinda sucks, not to wish ill will on our neighbors to the east, of course.

A direct hit on SW Louisana would be beyond cruel at this point.

[GrouchoTex]

A direct hit on SW Louisana would be beyond cruel at this point.

Agree 100%

[GtHawk]

Hoping everyone impacted weathers the storm and no lives are lost, things can always be replaced.



That being said I can't help but imagine that Biden's people are brainstorming, Joe can't help because he can only brainfart, how to find a way to blame Trump for this. No one has been buying the line that weather happens because Trump doesn't buy into the Globull Warming/ Climate Change malarkey.

[catfish1957]

Link and graphic to the most up to date model data on Hurricane Delta,,,,

[catfish1957]

Latest on Hurricane Delta prior to the 10 am CDT advisory

Storm is interacting with Yucatan Penn. and convection is spreading further from center.  So some short term weakening is expected.  At the 4 Am advisory the storm was moving NW at 17 mph, pretty quick, and looking at projections forward speed will apparently sustain.

Looking at latest model runs, there is a very very slight movement west, with 13 of the 15 models clustering at a landfall near New Iberia, with the other 2 near Cameron.  (see above, apparently link updates)  OTOH, looking at the very latest radar loop, the land interaction has made the storm center to appear to relocate more northward.  I am guessing both should affect the offical NHC track coming out in about 45 minutes.

At least for the 4 am advisory, the cone of uncertainty now from Sabine Pass to Morgan City Friday.  Again hitting as a Cat 3. 

[Gefn]

Prayers for anyone in this hurricanes path

[catfish1957]

10 AM update.

Hurricane watches now posted from High Island TX to Grand Isle, LA  Storm is over the northern coast of Yucatan Penn. with sustained winds of 105 mph, moving NW @15 mph.  Present course has landfall Friday near White Lake, LA.  Forcasted wind speed at landfall- 120 mph. 

This course is just east of what the poor people of SW Louisana experienced with the Max Cat 4 storm Laura late in August.

With interaction with land, I am seeing quite a bit of wobbling with the COC.  How it positions itself, as it enters the gulf will be huge as far as where landfall will be.

[catfish1957]

Pre-  4pm update and observations.  As you can see, all 15 models have now tightly clustered around  New Iberia.

However,  Not sure I am reading it wrong, but the past 4 hours on radar have appeared to be showing it with a  W or a WSW movement. Maybe an extended wobble, but in any case, it does bear well for the west side of the cone.

[catfish1957]

At 4 pm no significant change in track.  NHC has dropped the forecasted strength at landfall to 100 mph, and 11 ft. storm surge.

[Victoria33]

@catfish1957

Story:
One Christmas, I gave each family kin to my husband, an oil lamp with lamp oil.  As they opened these gifts, they looked puzzled and wanted to know why I gave each family this strange gift.  They all lived in Corpus Christi, Texas, flat land/beaches next to the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes come in there.  I explained how the lamps worked in case their power was cut off.

Then, the year the hurricane Ike came in, it was going to Corpus Christi.  I got an email from each family telling me they were looking for their lamp and the oil.  Some discussed leaving Corpus and coming to our house north of Houston.

There is more to this story:  Ike changed course and came up from Galveston to our house.  I was the one who needed lamps that time and I had them.

No matter where the experts say a hurricane is going, if you have ever had one in your area, prepare every time for the one out there coming to your house.

So, I am thinking Delta is coming to my house no matter where they say it is right now.

[catfish1957]

10pm advisory.

Delta is now about 80 miles NW of the Northwestern Yucatan Penn. coast.  Storm has sustained winds of 90 mph moving WNW at 17 mph.  Storm is expected to bend NW, N, and then NNE as it approaches the upper Gulf Coast.  Cone and subsequent Hurricane Warnings have been issued from High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA.  Models are very very very clustered towards a New Iberia landfall Friday Evening.

Storm is expected to strengthen to Cat 3, until it approaches the coast, where it is expected to weaken to Cat 2 (app. 100 mph) at landfall.

[Wingnut]

10pm advisory.

Storm is expected to strengthen to Cat 3, until it approaches the coast, where it is expected to weaken to Cat 2 (app. 100 mph) at landfall.

Still a bitch of a storm but those cold waters will zap it.

[catfish1957]

Still a bitch of a storm but those cold waters will zap it.

Did you see the model run?  13 of them are within 20 miles of each other at landfall.  Rarely do you see that level of agreement.

[Wingnut]

Did you see the model run?  13 of them are within 20 miles of each other at landfall.  Rarely do you see that level of agreement.

I did not look at that Fish.   I was checking to see if I needed to buy more beer!   lol

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957

Story:
One Christmas, I gave each family kin to my husband, an oil lamp with lamp oil.  As they opened these gifts, they looked puzzled and wanted to know why I gave each family this strange gift.  They all lived in Corpus Christi, Texas, flat land/beaches next to the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes come in there.  I explained how the lamps worked in case their power was cut off.

Then, the year the hurricane Ike came in, it was going to Corpus Christi.  I got an email from each family telling me they were looking for their lamp and the oil.  Some discussed leaving Corpus and coming to our house north of Houston.

There is more to this story:  Ike changed course and came up from Galveston to our house.  I was the one who needed lamps that time and I had them.

No matter where the experts say a hurricane is going, if you have ever had one in your area, prepare every time for the one out there coming to your house.

So, I am thinking Delta is coming to my house no matter where they say it is right now.

@Victoria33

Though your area is not 100% out of the woods, I'll remind you that since 1851, there have been zero Major Hurricane Strikes on the Texas Gulf Coast after Ocotber 1st.  Climatogically that is, because of numerous troughs and fronts that typically almost always pull Gulf storms north, then north east

The latest model run confirms a tightly clustered location of landfall between Cameron and New Iberia.

FYI latest wind probablilty for Galveston on the last advisory.

Percent chance of seeing at least tropical storm force winds >39 mph- 69%
Percent chance of seeing at least 58 mph winds- 24%
Percent chance of seeing hurricane force winds- 9%

I really feel so badly for the folks in SW Louisana.  Late August, they got whacked with a Max Cat 4 storm, Laura, and now may be dealing with Cat 2 or 3 storm.  In fact, there have been evacuation notices issues, for the only fact that so many other structures were comprismised in the first storm, that they may not survive  another.

One more update....  Noticed on radar loop, a strange looking due north 50 mile COC relocation, (wobble?).