Lower 48 Holds Enough DUCs to Extend Operations Deep into 2021

[IsailedawayfromFR]

A substantial inventory in the Lower 48 of drilled but uncompleted wells, aka DUCs, could sustain drilling — without adding more wells — long into the coming year, according to a new analysis.

“After DUCs run out, however, rig activity in the five key oil regions needs to be in the 280-300 range to maintain flat oil output,” according to a compilation by Rystad Energy.

As of last Friday (Sept. 4), the U.S. rig count stood at 256, putting the domestic tally on a modest uptrend over the past month, the latest data from Baker Hughes Co. showed. There were 898 domestic rigs running in the year-ago period.

The Permian Basin, which leads the onshore drilling recovery, may be able to “accommodate 13 months of activity at last month’s pace,” analysts noted. Using a “normal” DUC-to-hydraulic fracturing (fracking) ratio of around five months, Permian operators may be carrying an inventory equivalent to eight months of fracking at the current pace.

“Fracking activity for the rest of this year and early 2021 will be supported by the existing, abnormally high level of DUCs, though not all DUCs will be brought online quickly,” said Rystad’s Artem Abramov, head of Shale Research. “Large, well established operators will stay committed to capital discipline, only increasing their completion spend gradually in the current price environment.”
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/lower-48-holds-enough-ducs-to-extend-operations-deep-into-2021/#:~:text=Lower%2048%20Holds%20Enough%20DUCs%20to%20Extend%20Operations%20Deep%20into%202021,-By%20Carolyn%20Davis&text=A%20substantial%20inventory%20in%20the,according%20to%20a%20new%20analysis.

You might want to try your hand at becoming a completion engineer, @Smokin Joe

[Smokin Joe]

You might want to try your hand at becoming a completion engineer, @Smokin Joe

It's a mite late for that transition, considering my job was geology and steering them.
While I'd be willing to learn, few would be willing to teach a guy they'd only get four or five years out of when there are plenty of experienced folks around.

Consider between 1/4 and 1/3 of the production capacity up here is shut in at the moment, I think it will be a while before there's much need here.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

It's a mite late for that transition, considering my job was geology and steering them.
While I'd be willing to learn, few would be willing to teach a guy they'd only get four or five years out of when there are plenty of experienced folks around.

Consider between 1/4 and 1/3 of the production capacity up here is shut in at the moment, I think it will be a while before there's much need here.

Just trying to be helpful in case this becomes a prolonged situation of few rigs.

[Smokin Joe]

Just trying to be helpful in case this becomes a prolonged situation of few rigs.

That is appreciated, thanks. My only downhole tool background was during a brief tenure as a core hand. We were required to spend a week in the downhole shop tearing down mud motors, shock tools, and jars, which I found interesting, but never got to use beyond that. That was early in 1986...by April 15, I had been laid off.  It isn't that I could not learn, but from a manager's viewpoint, it might be more of a return on investment to teach someone with more years left in the workforce.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

That is appreciated, thanks. My only downhole tool background was during a brief tenure as a core hand. We were required to spend a week in the downhole shop tearing down mud motors, shock tools, and jars, which I found interesting, but never got to use beyond that. That was early in 1986...by April 15, I had been laid off.  It isn't that I could not learn, but from a manager's viewpoint, it might be more of a return on investment to teach someone with more years left in the workforce.

The insights with your background would be invaluable.

I learned during my Bakken days that a geoscientist must be joined at the hip to not just the drilling but also the completion guys to be successful in the hunt of good frac jobs.