Is Joe Really Up by 10 Points over Trump?

[mystery-ak]

September 8, 2020
Is Joe Really Up by 10 Points over Trump?
By John Kudla

It has been said that numbers never lie, but statistics do.  A political poll is a relative handful of numbers statistically analyzed and adjusted to yield, hopefully, simple results.  On their best days, polls are educated guesses.  On bad days, polls are outright lies.  The Real Clear Politics National Poll Average has both.

For a poll to be reasonably accurate, it needs a relatively large sample size, a good model reflective of the electorate, and it should include only those people likely to vote, AKA likely voters.  The voter model is much more important than either of the other two issues.  Get this wrong, and you can get a really skewed result.

One of the basic elements of a voter model is party affiliation.  This Gallup party affiliation poll shows that most voters claim to be independents, and those claiming to be either Republicans or Democrats are pretty evenly split.  If you average the numbers for 2020, you find that 28.5% claim to be Republicans and 29.7% are Democrats, a gap of just over 1 percentage point.  In June 2020, a Pew Research survey found party affiliation at 33% Democrat, 29% Republican, with 34% identifying as independents.  There are many other things involved in a voter model, such as age, sex, ethnicity, turnout, etc., but the point is, no national voter model should have a gap in party affiliation between Republicans and Democrats greater than about 3–4% and probably less.

Now let's look at the oft cited Real Clear Politics National Poll Average, shown below, which has Joe Biden at 7.1 percentage points over Donald Trump.  Is this an accurate reflection of the presidential race?  Probably not.

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https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/09/is_joe_really_up_by_10_points_over_trump.html

[EdinVA]

Is Joe Really Up by 10 Points over Trump?  Yes, just like we have peaceful protests..

[Gefn]

Just remember with polls, they can and do change a lot before Nov 3.

I personally think at this point no one knows who will win the election because no one has ever had to factor COVID before.

Seriously, we may not know the actual winner til Thanksgiving
 

[aligncare]

 

Biden’s campaign is a sham. If his lips are moving, he’s dissembling. He’s the most inauthentic candidate since Obama, and that’s saying a lot.

Whatever else he is, Trump at least is authentic.

[jafo2010]

In Joe Clueless' dreams! 

The TRUMP TSUNAMI is coming in November!

[libertybele]

Just remember with polls, they can and do change a lot before Nov 3..

I personally think at this point no one knows who will win the election because no one has ever had to factor COVID before.

Seriously, we may not know the actual winner til Thanksgiving
 

All the election predicting gurus are pointing to a Biden win.  I don't even think COVID is even a factor anymore except for those who are under the illusion he could have stopped the virus.  Riots are going to be more of a determining factor.

[skeeter]

Biden’s campaign is a sham. If his lips are moving, he’s dissembling. He’s the most inauthentic candidate since Obama, and that’s saying a lot.

Whatever else he is, Trump at least is authentic.

I experienced a kind of epiphany today... the left isn't trying to win this election - they are using this election as cover for their overthrow of the republic.

Of course winning, in the conventional sense, would be the easiest route but as they've said (and they've already demonstrated) they do not intend to accept anything but a victory for themselves. This is not an election.

So, its already on. To them elections are meaningless, except that not "winning" in the eyes of American public robs their movement of legitimacy. They still intend to take the benefits of winning control, they'll just have to do it the hard way.

For us not winning is unthinkable. It is our only chance.

Am I the last one to get this?

[jafo2010]

2020 is no different than 2016.  In 2016, the Democommies thought it would be a slam dunk.  Again, polls say Joe Clueless is ahead.  8 or 9 % in some states that are up for grabs.  NO WAY!

It will be a TRUMP TSUNAMI in November.

It just will not matter, no matter how many stinking lawyers are involved.  It will be a decisive victory for DJ TRUMP!!!  A 40 state Electoral College victory.

Biden will be road kill.

[Free Vulcan]

Electorally I'm not seeing it. The individual state polls in the big swing states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc. don't reflect that. Even more blue states like Minnesota and Wisconsin aren't even double digits, even New Jersey is just over 10%.

I think this thing is tied, at best for Biden, and electorally he might be behind.

[Hoodat]

Is Joe Really Up by 10 Points over Trump?

[sneakypete]

I experienced a kind of epiphany today... the left isn't trying to win this election - they are using this election as cover for their overthrow of the republic.

@skeeter

Of course. I have been saying that in various ways ever since Biden "won" the nomination.

Of course winning, in the conventional sense, would be the easiest route but as they've said (and they've already demonstrated) they do not intend to accept anything but a victory for themselves. This is not an election.

Correct. It is a prelude to a revolution/civil war.

So, its already on. To them elections are meaningless, except that not "winning" in the eyes of American public robs their movement of legitimacy. They still intend to take the benefits of winning control, they'll just have to do it the hard way.

For us not winning is unthinkable. It is our only chance.

Am I the last one to get this?

I think the whole idea is so unacceptable to most people that they would argue with you that "This is America,and that just isn't possible in America!"

Those people are going to take some waking up before they start to pay attention.

[skeeter]

@skeeter

Of course. I have been saying that in various ways ever since Biden "won" the nomination.

Correct. It is a prelude to a revolution/civil war.

I think the whole idea is so unacceptable to most people that they would argue with you that "This is America,and that just isn't possible in America!"

Those people are going to take some waking up before they start to pay attention.

It is hard to shake the impression that this is just another election and we have a chance of changing the trajectory of the nation if we win and if we lose, oh well we'll get em next time.

Of course we HAVE to win this election, if we win and the rats pull their sh*t we have a chance of prevailing in the coming CW because America will have clarity of purpose. If we lose the left will have the cover they need to consolidate their grip.

[AL]

Hard to factor in the Big Cheat with the mail in fraud, so polls don't really mean anything.