For Someone With A 10-Point Lead, Why Is Biden Playing 'Catch-Up?'
Kevin McCullough
Posted: Sep 06, 2020 9:41 AM
First off he doesn’t have—and never really did have—a 10-point lead.
Last week New York magazine attempted to explain how Biden’s 10-point lead, which by their admission was only a touch over seven points had not been impacted by the conventions. They then cited the “polling averages†of Real Clear Politics and Nate Silver’s operations as proof that the just under seven-point lead Biden had post conventions did not represent a Trump bump.
Despite the fact that six recent national polls show the president closing the gap to within two to five points, that his average in recent polls show him garnering record African American and Latino voters, and that nearly all polls where Biden leads are amongst registered voters, the left continues to pretend that Biden is pulling away.
The only problem is everyone on team Biden knows he’s not.
Most national polls present data badly misaligned with likely voters. They poll register voters and manipulate the weighting of the polls to reflect nothing of what final turnout will resemble.
If you know that every election cycle going back three decades is 33 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 34 percent Independents on average, then you also know you’re spiking results with polls that weight 38 percent Democrats and 19 percent Republicans.
You also have a clear understanding of what it means if the favored candidate in such polling dips under 10 percent. You’re losing. Bigly.
Pro tip here: Don’t go by polling averages. Dig into the minutia of the polls themselves and you find a different story. Look for “likely voter polls†instead of “registered.†Look for polls that reflect a more even divide. Those polls tell a different—far more accurate—story.
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https://townhall.com/columnists/kevinmccullough/2020/09/06/for-someone-with-a-10point-lead-why-is-biden-playing-catchup-n2575735
