“Lock-downs just mean that the same number of susceptible people will die, only later in the pandem

[rangerrebew]

“Lock-downs just mean that the same number of susceptible people will die, only later in the pandemic,” says MD
August 31, 2020 by Robert

“Barring a major breakthrough, the pandemic will infect and kill about the same number of people whether a lock-down is in place or not.”
– Robin Willcourt MD
_____________
Lock-downs just mean that the same number of susceptible people will die, only later in the pandemic

Robin Willcourt MD

We cannot ‘legislate’ against a virus and lockdowns cannot be 100% enforced. That is because essential workers, among others, are required to go to work, leave their homes and safe places and continue to function amid pandemics –and guess what? Many essential workers are healthcare providers.

Many of these people are going to become infected no matter how expertly PPEs and other means are used, simply because these people are human and some will inadvertently break the barrier through misuse, or, through neglect in applying their gear properly. This is how ‘leaks’ in the system so often occur.

https://www.iceagenow.info/lock-downs-just-mean-that-the-same-number-of-susceptible-people-will-die-only-later-in-the-pandemic-says-md/

[dfwgator]

Duh!

[PeteS in CA]

The precision of that statement can be quibbled, reasonably, IMO. A shutdown that prevented hospitals from being overwhelmed would mean the patients the hospitals did receive would be cared for better, with fewer deaths than if the hospitals had been allowed to be overwhelmed. And that was the original reason given for the shutdowns. But then the goalposts got moved. Another quibble of the precision of the claim is that much was learned about proper treatment, so that delaying people getting infected would mean that when they did, hospitals would know better how to treat them, again, saving some lives.

On the other hand, if a somewhat broader brush is used, long-term shutdowns basically delay the process of herd immunity development, in particular the % that would be developed before a vaccine was approved and became available. So the statement is imprecise, IMO, but still largely true.

[Hoodat]

“Lock-downs just mean that the same number of susceptible people will die, only later in the pandemic,” says MD
August 31, 2020 by Robert

People on this forum have been saying that since March.

[Bigun]

People on this forum have been saying that since March.

    

[DB]

The precision of that statement can be quibbled, reasonably, IMO. A shutdown that prevented hospitals from being overwhelmed would mean the patients the hospitals did receive would be cared for better, with fewer deaths than if the hospitals had been allowed to be overwhelmed. And that was the original reason given for the shutdowns. But then the goalposts got moved. Another quibble of the precision of the claim is that much was learned about proper treatment, so that delaying people getting infected would mean that when they did, hospitals would know better how to treat them, again, saving some lives.

On the other hand, if a somewhat broader brush is used, long-term shutdowns basically delay the process of herd immunity development, in particular the % that would be developed before a vaccine was approved and became available. So the statement is imprecise, IMO, but still largely true.

Agree. Been saying that for some time now.

[PeteS in CA]

Agree. Been saying that for some time now.

I'm slow.

[libertybele]

I'm slow.

One thing that Gov. DeSantis (FL) did promise is that there will be NO more shutdowns.  He is in the process of allowing visitors into nursing homes and opening bars. 

[cato potatoe]

This week, the United States will surpass Sweden for covid deaths per capita.  Death rates are still highest in the lockdown states.  This can never be allowed to happen again.

[DB]

This week, the United States will surpass Sweden for covid deaths per capita.  Death rates are still highest in the lockdown states.  This can never be allowed to happen again.

The truth is death rates can only be meaningful after Covid has completely passed through. There's little difference between a country that had lots of deaths early on verses lots of deaths later on if the totals are similar per capita after it has completed doing its damage.

[Hoodat]

The truth is death rates can only be meaningful after Covid has completely passed through. There's little difference between a country that had lots of deaths early on verses lots of deaths later on if the totals are similar per capita after it has completed doing its damage.

There does seem to be a great deal of difference in death rates between States who ordered their nursing home facilities to admit infected Covid patients and States who did not.

There also seems to be a considerable difference in death rates between countries where hydroxychloroquine is sold over the counter and countries who ban it's use for treating Covid.

[DB]

There does seem to be a great deal of difference in death rates between States who ordered their nursing home facilities to admit infected Covid patients and States who did not.

There also seems to be a considerable difference in death rates between countries where hydroxychloroquine is sold over the counter and countries who ban it's use for treating Covid.

No argument there.