July 26, 2020
Ignore the Battleground Polls
By Trevor Thomas
It seems that President Trump is trailing in the polls again. In other "shocking" news, it seems that only women menstruate; "green energy" is a massive scam; Trump-Russia collusion was a massive hoax; media leftists hate America; and on everything from masks to guns to lives that matter, liberals are hypocrites. Americans — especially Trump supporters — should pay little to no attention to the national polls on the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Such polls are usually not designed to inform us — as they should — but rather to form public opinion. This is true of the polls in the so-called "battleground" states as well. Twenty sixteen provides the valuable lesson here.
People define battleground states differently. For the purposes of this piece, I'll define a "battleground state" as a state that was won — by either Trump or Hillary — in 2016 by less than 5 percentage points. There were eleven such states in 2016. Six were won by President Trump (margin of victory in the parentheses): North Carolina (3.66%), Arizona (3.55%), Florida (1.20%), Wisconsin (0.77%), Pennsylvania (0.72%), and Michigan (0.23%). Five were won by Hillary: Colorado (4.91%), Maine (2.96%), Nevada (2.42%), Minnesota (1.52%), and New Hampshire (0.37%).
Going into the 2016 election, according to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in seven out of 11 battleground states (Hillary's RCP polling average lead in parentheses): WI (6.5%), PA (2.1%), MI (3.6%), CO (3.0%), ME (5.5%), MN (6.3%), and NH (0.3%). In other words, Donald Trump won three of the battleground states — WI, PA, and MI — where he (supposedly) trailed significantly in polls done just days prior to the election. Additionally, whether he won the state or not, Trump outperformed the RCP polling average in seven out of 11 battleground states. He did so by an average margin of 3.5%.
more
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/07/ignore_the_battleground_polls.html
