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Author Topic: Primary Model That Predicted Trump Victory in 2016 Gives Him 91% Chance to Win in 2020  (Read 197 times)

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Offline libertybele

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Primary Model That Predicted Trump Victory in 2016 Gives Him 91% Chance to Win in 2020
« on: July 13, 2020, 06:40:02 pm »
Primary Model That Predicted Trump Victory in 2016 Gives Him 91% Chance to Win in 2020

The Primary Model, invented by Stony Brook University Prof. Helmut Norputh, a political scientist, accurately predicted a Donald Trump win in 2016 and now the model says Trump has a 91% chance of winning in 2020.

The model, which (retroactively) has been accurate in 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, states that Trump will likely gather 362 electoral votes and Joe Biden, the presumed Democrat nominee, will earn 176 votes. The model gives Biden a 9% chance of winning the election.

Norputh designed the Primary Model in 1996. Since then, it has correctly predicted all but one out of the six presidential elections that occurred -- George W. Bush in 2000.........

https://www.cnsnews.com/index.php/article/washington/bailey-duran/primary-model-predicted-trump-victory-2016-gives-him-91-chance-win
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Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Primary Model That Predicted Trump Victory in 2016 Gives Him 91% Chance to Win in 2020
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 08:08:50 pm »
If I owned such a tool, I would not publicly release the datapoints and the algorythm.

A candidate could tailor their campaign to push certain buttons and messages.

I would however sell it dearly.

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