Where things stand in 13 battleground states
By Jonathan Easley - 06/27/20 12:21 PM EDT
Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is pulling away in four of the six core battlegrounds that represent each candidate’s likeliest path to the White House.
States that did not begin the cycle as competitive – Iowa and Ohio – are suddenly too close for comfort for Republicans. Trump and Biden are also running neck and neck in Texas and Georgia, two states that Democrats have long dreamed of turning blue.
The Trump campaign had hoped to flip a trio of states that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 – Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico – but there is no evidence to suggest that those states are competitive.
A lot could change with just over four months before Election Day. But at the moment, Biden has a wide path to the White House and polls indicate that Trump could potentially face a wipeout that would do significant harm to the GOP’s efforts to hold the Senate.
Here’s a look at the state of the race in 13 battlegrounds.
The six core battlegrounds
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls shows Biden leading Trump by 6 points or more in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The race is much closer in North Carolina and Arizona. Trump won all six in 2016.
There is almost no path to victory for Trump if he loses Florida. A Fox News survey released Thursday found Biden ahead there by 9 points. That’s a stunning margin for a state that rarely turns on more than a point or two.
Biden leads Trump by 20 points or more among women, independents and non-whites in Florida, while Trump is doing worse among his core group of supporters from 2016 – older voters, white people and those without a college degree.
The same is true in the “blue wall†states that Trump narrowly won in 2016.
When the cycle began, Democrats viewed Wisconsin, which is predominantly white, as the toughest of the bunch to win back. According to the RCP average, Biden now leads by 8 points in Wisconsin.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/504790-where-things-stand-in-13-battleground-states
