washingtonexaminer.com
Pollster Nate Silver: 'A Biden landslide is possible'
by Daniel Chaitin | June 22, 2020 07:53 AM
Polling guru Nate Silver sees "a lot of issues" with President Trump's quest for reelection in November.
So much so that a "landslide" for Joe Biden is possible.
Silver appeared on ABC over the weekend to share the "big news" that FiveThirtyEight released its presidential polling averages last week.
"Joe Biden leads by around 9 points in our national polling average, and that lead has been growing. Of course, national polls don't really matter. Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would have been president," he said. "But it's worth noting that such a large lead is unusual in politics these days. Clinton never led by more than 7 points, for example, and at this point in the 2008 race, Barack Obama led John McCain by around 6 points."
"So, Trump needs to make a comeback, and there is plenty of time for that, and maybe also get some help from the Electoral College," he added.
Silver stressed in his post on Thursday that Biden's lead in swing states is much smaller, giving Trump an opening to win the Electoral College if the race tightens.
Silver wrote that the former vice president leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states totaling 170 electoral votes. "So while a Biden landslide is possible if he wins all these swing states, so is a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on which way the race moves between now and November," he wrote.
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