Analysis: Why Was Turnout So Underwhelming at Trump's Much-Anticipated 'Comeback' Rally?

[mystery-ak]

Analysis: Why Was Turnout So Underwhelming at Trump's Much-Anticipated 'Comeback' Rally?
Guy Benson

Posted: Jun 22, 2020 10:35 AM

As the afternoon faded into early evening on Saturday, anti-Trump Twitter was abuzz. Turnout for the president's re-election rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma was looking underwhelming, and his critics were having a field day.  Team Trump had been publicly boasting about receiving more than one million RSVP's for the event, causing them to set up a massive overflow area outside of the arena, where both the President and Vice President were scheduled to make appearances to address and energize the throngs who couldn't fit inside the 19,000 seat arena.  But as showtime approached, the 'overflow' crowd was so sparse that the outdoor portion of the program was hastily scrapped altogether, and the stage dismantled:

Will Steakin
✔
@wsteaks

President Trump will no longer deliver a planned address to the overflow crowd outside the BOK Center at his Tulsa rally, a Trump campaign source tells @ABC News.

Inside, the crowd was large and fired up, but thousands of empty blue seats were visible throughout the BOK Center's upper deck, in addition to the conspicuously non-crowded arena floor.  For an average political rally, the turnout was strong.  But for a Trump rally, especially one that was hyped and debated for weeks, it was a flop.  And the president knows it:

Rick Klein
✔
@rickklein

Trump was “livid - extremely irritated” by the turnout last night at the rally, @CeciliaVega reports #thisweek
353
8:45 AM - Jun 21, 2020

How did this happen?  Four factors, as far as I can tell.  First, Coronavirus.  In spite of all the rhetoric, it's clear that a great many Americans -- including scores of Trump supporters who would have swarmed into Tulsa under different circumstances -- just didn't want to roll the dice by attending a large indoor gathering, when push came to shove.  The campaign had said that anyone who felt uncomfortable or potentially unwell shouldn't show up, and it appears as though quite a few people decided to err on the side of caution.  Members of the president's own COVID task force, including Doctors Fauci and Birx, reportedly advised against holding a rally under the circumstances (indoors, no distancing, etc).  The campaign pressed forward anyway, but the people voted with their feet.  In a state with surging infections, a statistic that requires some context and nuance, many simply were not prepared to take the risk.

excerpt:
So if this was intended to be a morale booster for the principal, as well as a means of generating quasi-convincing talking points about robust enthusiasm in spite of flagging polling numbers, the rally must be viewed as an embarrassment. We'll see if anyone gets the axe because of it, or if millions of online and TV viewers might salvage things a bit.  Regardless, it really looks and feels like Trump is in trouble right now, as the campaign enters the summer slog.  I'll leave you with two clips from Trump's speech, including an ill-advised 'joke' (this piece is worth reading, since we're back on the subject of COVID testing) that the Biden campaign is already seizing on:

more
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2020/06/22/analysis-why-was-turnout-so-low-at-trumps-muchanticipated-comeback-rally-n2571024

[libertybele]

I stated this another thread; COVID was one reason, but another reason that wasn't mentioned is BLM blocking entry and AOC buying up tickets.

Trump isn't in trouble -- yet -- he does need to truly assess the situation and realize that if BLM is blocking entry into one of his rallies they will find a way to block people from voting for him.  I think that is pretty obvious.

I'm sure AOC and the DEMS are working on a way to manipulate voting.

Something needs to be done.

IMHO I think we all have reason to be concerned and even frightened at this point.

[PeteS in CA]

Second, there were concerns about counter-protests that could conceivably get ugly.

It didn't get super ugly, but "protesters" did obstruct some entrances and a metal detector bottleneck. So the perception of a possible threat was quite realistic.

Third, ironically, the campaign's loud bragging about sky-high RSVP numbers almost certainly contributed to 'eh, maybe not this time' decisions from on-the-fence supporters ...

Yeah, I doubt this was a significant factor. Maybe non-zero, but not significant.

And fourth, there's the teenage prank story line, hints of which started to bubble up in the days leading up to the event.

AOC didn't organize or carry this out, but she did praise them. Since it's well known that walk-ups are let in after a certain point in time is reached to fill in apparent no-shows, I doubt this had significant effect.

[mystery-ak]

From a post on FB who was actually at the Tulsa Rally

Glenda Smith Alan Eason

""Here is how a corrupt convention center management team kills attendance at a Trump Rally. I was there and saw most of it first hand, followed by others tonight that never got past the temperature screeners."

No teenagers purchased thousands of seats!!

I hope this truth comes out to the world !!!

This is about as evil and corrupt as it gets, and I've read this from multiple sources of people who were there and turned away, even turned away from the jumbotron.

🗣Here's another report that just came in from another Trump Rally attendee. Via Melissa A Smith-Shepherd

😡THE PLOT THICKENS

🗣

1. BOK Center holds at least 19,000. The area outside the convention center set up by the Secret Service and Tulsa PD had a U-shaped squeeze shoot to funnel the crowd down to an area about. 50 feet wide and 600 feet long with an outdoor stage adjacent to the BOK entrance.Trump was supposed to be able to speak to the overflow group from this stage.

2. Entry to the “Secure Area” NOT the BOK center was about 5 blocks away where you had to pass “screeners” who took your temperature, made you put on a face mask and gave you a green band to proceed to Secret Service Security.

😡3. If the temperature screeners left their post- the entire entry to the BOK Trump rally was shut down.

4. And that is EXACTLY what happened today about an hour after we got through security.

😡5. The BOK center just before the doors opened had block off every other seat in the arena so the arena could only hold about 9500 people.

6. After continued back and forth with the trump campaign, something happened to allow more people in (in groups of just 100 at a time). We had to wait about 30 minutes each time for them to let just 100 of us trickle into the building. I am not talking about their security- we had already passed through metal detectors and everything. You could actually run into the building each time they would let just 100 of us in at a time, but that was just just wrong and corrupt on BOK management’s part. 😡They removed the stickers/rule on every other seat - that is true, but only after they shut down all entry to the “event location”.

7. 😳I looked over at the screening area and told my wife- something fishy is gong on- 😡2 hours before the rally - the screeners have left. I told her- no one can get to the stage/overflow area or the BOK center with the “temperature screeners” gone. It is like the people that collect tickets say- I am done we are leaving.

8. 😡They left their posts and from what I am learning- thousands could not get in to the first checkpoint because the temperature screeners had to put green wrist band on you to gain access to the Secret Service security checkpoint. No green band— no entry to the security check point.

9. 😡I think the BOK management told the screeners - we have reached the capacity for what we are letting into the BOK center, so shut down- do not allow the other Trump supporters to get a temperature check and no more green wrist bands. Do not issue green wrist bands so they can get into the holding area to see the stage for the outdoor Trump Rally.

10. 😡It was all a setup to make it look like the crowds did not show up. 😡👍🏼The crowds DID show up and after 5pm,- 2 hours before the event- no one was there to let them get to security.

11. With only about 3/4 of the building full, and no overflow crowd-then. CNN boasts that the rally was a flop. 😡The only thing that was a flop was BOK temperature screeners turned away thousands of attendees that never got to be near the rally.

😡This is pure political corruption at it’s finest. I was there- the super high energy crowd was there. 😡they need to fire the BOK manager that oversaw this disaster. President Trump- we as the crowed tried, but with corrupt BOK management your crowd was downsized. We need a re-do without a crooked BOK building manager. On top of all that, even Uber was not accepting payments for any rides to the downtown area for the event. I hope this backfires on all the crooks.😡

(Thank you James Llewellyn Turney!)

Please COPY AND PASTE to ALL your friends!!

[aligncare]

What parent would want to risk bringing their kids to a political rally when CNN et al is blaring 24/7 news of mobs and deranged individuals threatening violence and mayhem? After all, the national guard was present outside at the rally in case of violence. I think fear of the mob is the primary reason for low turnout. That, and manufactured fear of covid.

[Absalom]

When a colleague or friend overstays their welcome, w/relenthless yapping and
other boorish behavior, he is rarely if ever invited back.
Trump was unfamiliar to average people before 2016, so they invited him in,
whereupon he behaved just as he always has, despite the fact that he was POTUS.
Now average people want him gone and he will be in Nov, ranting and raving on
his way out the door, while cursing everyone else for not appreciating his 'genius'.
We are engulfed in anxiety, dread, foreboding and malaise; a time period requiring
wise yet assertive leadership.
As he has demonstrated endlessly, Trump is the very last person on the Planet
capable of meeting the needs of the USA and average Americans.

[mystery-ak]

Lewandowski takes swipe at Trump campaign over Tulsa rally crowd size

"I think a fundamental mistake was made. Over promising and under-delivering is the biggest mistake you can make in politics,” said Corey Lewandowski, who managed Trump’s first presidential campaign from its inception in 2015 until June of 2016 and who remains a close outside political counsel to the president.

more
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lewandowski-takes-swipe-at-trump-campaign-over-rally-crowd-size

[mountaineer]

When a colleague or friend overstays their welcome, w/relenthless yapping and
other boorish behavior, he is rarely if ever invited back.
Trump was unfamiliar to average people before 2016, so they invited him in,
whereupon he behaved just as he always has, despite the fact that he was POTUS.
Now average people want him gone and he will be in Nov, ranting and raving on
his way out the door, while cursing everyone else for not appreciating his 'genius'.
We are engulfed in anxiety, dread, foreboding and malaise; a time period requiring
wise yet assertive leadership.
As he has demonstrated endlessly, Trump is the very last person on the Planet
capable of meeting the needs of the USA and average Americans.

It doesn't appear you've read any of the posts. I'll summarize: The BOK center authorities screwed up vis-a-vis the temperature screeners. Some of the tickets may have gone to actual hostiles (the AOC crowd), instead of people who wanted to attend in support of the president. Protesters harassed attendees. People were still nervous about Covid-19, after all the media hype.

There's no evidence to support your assertions as an explanation for a less than full house. In fact, your comment doesn't even address the subject of the thread.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Seems like a bunch of excuses are being thrown about. Trump speech itself, what I saw of it, was good (except for the "slow down testing" stuff, wtf?).

Stop looking to blame everyone else and blame those in charge.

[mountaineer]

Larry Schweikart  @LarrySchweikart
2h

1) Trump's rally was a pre-season game.

2) I'm not a conspiracy guy, so I don't think @parscale
 knew he was being played in the Tik Tok game. However,

3) He is a quick learner. This was a vital dry run for all future rallies, with or without the China Virus or fascist antifa.
Larry Schweikart

4) I think what Team Trump learned was that something that is free may have a lot of liars get involved. (I.e., polls as well).

5) Team Trump will make adjustments--don't know what they are, but they are coming.

6) At the same time, they got a good idea of Trump's incredible video appeal--millions. By one count, 10 million. This would dwarf Tucker Carlson or any other tv news related show.

7) At the same time, Trump has aggressively come out against vote by mail, while exposing the TikTok Chicom involvement in our election.   ...

More at Twitter

[aligncare]

Seems like a bunch of excuses are being thrown about. Trump speech itself, what I saw of it, was good (except for the "slow down testing" stuff, wtf?).

Stop looking to blame everyone else and blame those in charge.

I didn’t get a chance to see the rally on Saturday night. All I read since were the reactions and mocking criticisms of him, here and elsewhere. This morning I heard Trump’s speech on FOX radio and I must say, he was typical Trump; conversational, funny, uplifting and excellent!

[libertybele]

I didn’t get a chance to see the rally on Saturday night. All I read since were the reactions and mocking criticisms of him, here and elsewhere. This morning I heard Trump’s speech on FOX radio and I must say, he was typical Trump; conversational, funny, uplifting and excellent!

@Right_in_Virginia posted the entire really.  It was a good rally, he definitely can capture a crowd with his stories -- funniest I've ever seen him.

[Absalom]

It doesn't appear you've read any of the posts. I'll summarize: The BOK center authorities screwed up vis-a-vis the temperature screeners. Some of the tickets may have gone to actual hostiles (the AOC crowd), instead of people who wanted to attend in support of the president. Protesters harassed attendees. People were still nervous about Covid-19, after all the media hype.
There's no evidence to support your assertions as an explanation for a less than full house. In fact, your comment doesn't even address the subject of the thread.

--------------------------------
Respectfully, I was drawing a much larger picture.
Average people have heard/seen Trump doing his full frontal since Jan, 2017;
as such his 4 hour Tulsa snap-shot is trivial.
Excuses aside, increasingly they have made up their minds and decided Trump
is the answer to absolutely nothing that truly matters.

[libertybele]

--------------------------------
Respectfully, I was drawing a much larger picture.
Average people have heard/seen Trump doing his full frontal since Jan, 2017; as such his 4 hour Tulsa snap-shot is trivial.
Excuses aside, increasingly they have made up  their minds and decided Trump is the answer to absolutely nothing that truly matters.

Did you actually watch the rally last night?  I thought it was great. It was good to see Trump connecting with his supporters again and his supporters so energized.

In case you missed it @Right_in_Virginia posted it:

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,405995.msg2234631.html#msg2234631

[Absalom]

Did you actually watch the rally last night?  I thought it was great. It was good to see Trump connecting with his supporters again and his supporters so energized. In case you missed it Right_in_Virginia[/member] poste

-----------------------------
Trump connecting w/his Fan Club will get him at best, 1 of 3 votes !!!
Try getting real.
 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Trump isn't in trouble

Eh, I disagree with that one, his polling is atrocious. Polls aren't everything but to stick your head in the sand is dumb IMO.

[aligncare]

Eh, I disagree with that one, his polling is atrocious. Polls aren't everything but to stick your head in the sand is dumb IMO.

Yeah, Trump should have withdrawn from the race on June 6, 2016 when polls showed Hillary’s lead grew to +12 points.

[LMAO]

Eh, I disagree with that one, his polling is atrocious. Polls aren't everything but to stick your head in the sand is dumb IMO.

Donald Trump is in very big trouble and if the election was held right now Biden would win


But the election isn’t until November and Biden can’t hide forever

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Yeah, Trump should have withdrawn from the race on June 6, 2016 when polls showed Hillary’s lead grew to +12 points.

  YOu and I can ignore polls, fine, but I sure as hell hope Trump and his team aren't.

[Cyber Liberty]

--------------------------------
Respectfully, I was drawing a much larger picture.
Average people have heard/seen Trump doing his full frontal since Jan, 2017;
as such his 4 hour Tulsa snap-shot is trivial.
Excuses aside, increasingly they have made up their minds and decided Trump
is the answer to absolutely nothing that truly matters.

What you call "drawing a much larger picture," I call "Hijacking a thread."