Trump’s Base Remains Solid As Political Tide Turns
J.T. Young
June 22, 2020
November. National polls have recently shown a widening Biden lead; considering the current political environment, this is not surprising. What is surprising is how well Trump has held up, and how well it positions him as political tides turn.
The current Real Clear Politics average of national presidential polling gives Biden a 50.1% to 41.3% lead less than five months from November’s election. This fits conventional expectations that 2020’s rough first half is damaging the president’s re-election chances. However, looking inside these national polls reveals a crucial shortcoming: They are not polling those most likely to vote.
Of the eleven national polls making up RCP’s average, ten sampled “registered†voters, not “likely†voters. Registered voter polls are historically less accurate and over-represent Democrats in their results.
One likely voter poll not included in RCP’s average is Zogby’s recent one (conducted 6/1-6/2 of 1,007 likely voters) which has Trump and Biden deadlocked at 46% apiece. Everything in Zogby’s was not perfect for the president; his approval/disapproval rating was negative — 48% approve/51% disapprove. However, as Zogby noted: “During this almost exact moment at the end of Barack Obama’s first term, his job approval numbers were very similar…48% approve/50% disapprove.â€
One poll is not an election. However, “registered†are not “likely†voters either, and the only ones who count will be November voters. Zogby’s poll does indicate that Trump’s base will figure prominently among them. The surest sign they will is that they are sticking with him during the most difficult moment of his presidency.
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https://issuesinsights.com/2020/06/22/trumps-base-remains-solid-as-political-tide-turns/
