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Author Topic: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL  (Read 639 times)

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Offline Elderberry

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TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« on: June 03, 2020, 02:37:45 am »
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Online libertybele

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2020, 03:22:30 am »
The last thing we all need to deal with is a hurricane on top of everything else this country is going through.  Praying that the hurricanes stay away from our coastlines.
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2020, 02:30:42 pm »
The latest I've heard was on the radio this morning.
Some long-range forecast guy, used by agriculture to monitor best harvest time, etc.
He says if it turns early, Texas coast, Corpus to Galveston.
If it turns late, Lake Charles to Mid Louisiana.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2020, 02:52:23 pm »
Quote from: GrouchoTex on June 03, 2020, 02:30:42 pm
The latest I've heard was on the radio this morning.
Some long-range forecast guy, used by agriculture to monitor best harvest time, etc.
He says if it turns early, Texas coast, Corpus to Galveston.
If it turns late, Lake Charles to Mid Louisiana.

Things will obviously change between now and early next week, but a 65 mph T.S. is managable. 

Biggest problem with these June T.S..'s  is flooding.  Projection map has it going pretty fast prior to landfall.  let's hope that trend continues.
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Online mountaineer

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2020, 06:10:15 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on June 03, 2020, 03:22:30 am
The last thing we all need to deal with is a hurricane on top of everything else this country is going through.  Praying that the hurricanes stay away from our coastlines.
From what I heard today on the Weather Channel, this one doesn't look like it will become a hurricane (thank goodness).
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2020, 09:42:24 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on June 03, 2020, 02:52:23 pm
Things will obviously change between now and early next week, but a 65 mph T.S. is managable. 

Biggest problem with these June T.S..'s  is flooding.  Projection map has it going pretty fast prior to landfall.  let's hope that trend continues.

Amen to that.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2020, 09:56:44 pm »
Quote from: GrouchoTex on June 03, 2020, 09:42:24 pm
Amen to that.

No real changes in forecast LT position  or strength in the 4 pm adivisory.

Only 3 Models (HWRF, GFS, and HWON) at least at WU have initialized the storm, and  (strangely all 3) have it coming ashore at a tad west of the offical track near Cameron.  So my guess is the next offical track might shift slightly west. 

Of course the center of a 65 MPH storm isn't near as impotant as one in a major hurricane.  Typically NE Quadrant location is the area where the heavist rain and flooding is expected.  Stay tuned.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2020, 04:06:09 am »
10 p.m. advisory has storm basically on same track as 4:00 p.m. Max expected winds are down to 60mph vs. 65 at 4:00 p.m.

Models have shifted back slightly east.  Thus no change in track.

Next advisory is at 4:00 a.m. CDT
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 04:24:43 am by catfish1957 »
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2020, 04:14:26 am »
I'm heading back to the Gulf on Monday.  Anything I need to worry about here?  Haven't been keeping track.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2020, 04:24:08 am »
Quote from: Hoodat on June 04, 2020, 04:14:26 am
I'm heading back to the Gulf on Monday.  Anything I need to worry about here?  Haven't been keeping track.

To the Gulf, you mean water?  If water, you might want to keep an ear on the weather radio for deteriorating conditons in just a few days.  Storms even relatively small ones, can have impact 100's of miles away. High winds and rough surf. 

If it is the coast, storm as advertised should be a nuisance wind wise.  June Tropical Storms can dump copious amounts of rain though, so if you are in the path, and it low areas watch for flooding.  If storm stays under hurricane strength, storm surge shouldn't be more than 3-5 foot.  Of course not a good day to be beachcombing. 

OTOH, as we all know, you never know what may come knocking early next week.   
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I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Hoodat

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2020, 04:31:42 am »
Thanks.
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If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.     -Dwight Eisenhower-

"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."     -Ayn Rand-

Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2020, 03:42:02 pm »
10 a.m. Update.  Really no changes in projected strength, or LT path from yesterday. 
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2020, 12:58:54 am »
7 pm ...  more of he same.  Pretty unusual for a storm to remain this true to strength/direction for a whole day.  NHC landfall still projected early Monday morning near Lafayette, LA with Cone in an area along the coast from Galveston to the Mouth of the Mississippi.

Here is the laterst comprehensive model run compliments of WU.



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I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2020, 03:18:48 am »
10 pm T.D. Cristobal advisory update.  Key points-

* NHC Landfall estimate has shifted about 20 miles east.  Just west of Morgan City
* No change in expected winds strength- 60 mph forecasted
* Timing of landfall is now late Sunday night
* Mid to upper level winds are howling.  This should signifiantly hinder any rapid development of the storm.
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I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline catfish1957

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2020, 09:39:11 am »
Friday 4:00 a.m. update on Cristobal    Key points-

* NHC landfall projection is still just west of Morgan City
* Still 60mph winds expected at landfall
* Present timiing late Sunday night, early Monday Morning
* Tropical Storm Watches likely will be issued later today.
* Again a reminder that storms of this nature are large rain makers, and the exact path of the storm is not as important as what areas get pummeled with rain bands and wind.

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I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Offline Elderberry

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Re: TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2020, 11:34:45 am »
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