Respectfully, as TBR is an opinion site, all are entitled.
Yet the notion that the Covid recovery will be V shaped is light years beyond preposterous.
Ignoring China for the moment, this was an act of Nature and in all such events, be they
earthquakes, hurricanes/tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, plagues, floods, among many;
Man is reminded by Nature who is superior.
As a cequence, beyond the loss of life, his psyche is damaged, leaving a residue of fear
producing anxiety, pause and reflection.
Manipulating various numbers is nothing by an exercise in arithmetic; telling us nothing
as to how Man will behave and react once this plague subsides.
Lot of flowery non-financial, non-technical, reasoning there saying why it won't be a "V" recovery. If you saw my orignal post, I said I am not 100% certain either. But I have been watching this stuff 40 years, and have done it long enough to watch how fundementals impact market movement. Calling an abrupt recovery preposterous, is tad out there to say the least.........
Base consumption numbers are spiking up, and that typically dominoes up the food chain. Then add the fact that the majority of investors are in for the lot haul. 30+ years. Yes, recent exuberance may be overstated, but one overiding fact remains..... If you box any 10 year period from the depression to today, there has beeb an increase in the DJIA. There is always anxiety in investing, but the years of burying or putting your nest egg in a matress is ancient history.
In fact your last sentence substantuates the fact, you have no idea where the market will go. Because, honestly....no one can predict the market past a few days anyway. It's just the nature of the beast, and subject as you stated to unforseen events.
Myself? 2 months ago, my money would have been on a "U", Now... I think it is the least likely. Watch for a "V", or if a second COVID-19 wave hits, a "W". Hey, but if an asteroid hits the earth......
I'd like to hear a little more on where you think the markets are trending. Sounds like you are a serious Bear.