Study finds 42% of pandemic layoffs will become permanent job losses

[rangerrebew]

Study finds 42% of pandemic layoffs will become permanent job losses
by Mica Soellner
 | May 11, 2020 10:32 AM
 
Many of the coronavirus pandemic layoffs will become permanent job losses, according to a new study with alarming implications for the future of the economy.

Forty-two percent of workers experiencing recent layoffs will suffer permanent job losses, according to a paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The finding is especially grim news because officials are hoping that most of the workers sent home during the pandemic will return quickly to their old jobs. The vast majority of the massive layoffs in response to the pandemic have been on a temporary basis: In April, 18 million of the 20.6 million people who lost work said that their job losses were "temporary," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/new-study-finds-42-of-pandemic-layoffs-will-become-permanent-job-losses

[catfish1957]

Study finds 42% of pandemic layoffs will become permanent job losses
by Mica Soellner
 | May 11, 2020 10:32 AM
 
Many of the coronavirus pandemic layoffs will become permanent job losses, according to a new study with alarming implications for the future of the economy.

Forty-two percent of workers experiencing recent layoffs will suffer permanent job losses, according to a paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The finding is especially grim news because officials are hoping that most of the workers sent home during the pandemic will return quickly to their old jobs. The vast majority of the massive layoffs in response to the pandemic have been on a temporary basis: In April, 18 million of the 20.6 million people who lost work said that their job losses were "temporary," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/new-study-finds-42-of-pandemic-layoffs-will-become-permanent-job-losses

We are really are in uncharted territory.  I am a little bit more optmistic based on whether we can maximize the "temporary" aspects of this crisis.  The quicker we can return to some level of normalcy, the less impact we will see.

[Cyber Liberty]

We are really are in uncharted territory.  I am a little bit more optmistic based on whether we can maximize the "temporary" aspects of this crisis.  The quicker we can return to some level of normalcy, the less impact we will see.

It seems intuitive to me that the longer a company is shut down, the less likely it is to survive.  We may even lose some of the Bigs.  A lot of the Smalls are already dead.

This is why the Dems are delighted every day States stay locked down, and they cheer every business that fails.  The more pain in the economy, the better chances they have of toppling Trump, taking over the Senate and retaining the House.  They see an opportunity for a win-win-win, so they're playing this for all it's worth, warning of massive death in the streets we already know isn't going to happen.  They must use their media to convince us to let it happen.

This is why we see the Rats acting the way they are.  It's strategery.

[catfish1957]

It seems intuitive to me that the longer a company is shut down, the less likely it is to survive.  We may even lose some of the Bigs.  A lot of the Smalls are already dead.

This is why the Dems are delighted every day States stay locked down, and they cheer every business that fails.  The more pain in the economy, the better chances they have of toppling Trump, taking over the Senate and retaining the House.  They see an opportunity for a win-win-win, so they're playing this for all it's worth, warning of massive death in the streets we already know isn't going to happen.  They must use their media to convince us to let it happen.

This is why we see the Rats acting the way they are.  It's strategery.

No disagreement on the short term pain, , but some of the doom and gloomers are claiming that it will take job market 10+ years to recover.  I think our society is a little more innovative, flexible and resilient than that.

Supply/Demand is a funny thing.  There's always somone who can figure it out. 

[Bigun]

No disagreement on the short term pain, , but some of the doom and gloomers are claiming that it will take job market 10+ years to recover.  I think our society is a little more innovative, flexible and resilient than that.

Supply/Demand is a funny thing.  There's always somone who can figure it out.

I don't know about ten years but it is going to take some time even if the actions taken to remedy it are good. If they are bad ten years or more is a real possibility.

[Cyber Liberty]

If the Rats succeed in staying the course through the election, 10 years won't be nearly enough to get things back to the way they were.  They know this, they aren't all as illiterate in economics as AOC.  They just don't care about suffering, as it promises to deliver more power into their hands.

The Democrats are behaving exactly as we already knew they would.  They are strong advocates of the egg-breaking school of omelet making.

[libertybele]

If the Rats succeed in staying the course through the election, 10 years won't be nearly enough to get things back to the way they were.  They know this, they aren't all as illiterate in economics as AOC.  They just don't care about suffering, as it promises to deliver more power into their hands.

The Democrats are behaving exactly as we already knew they would.  They are strong advocates of the egg-breaking school of omelet making.

You are absolutely correct;(and I still have the notion in my mind that Biden and company orchestrated this mess).  That is why it is so imperative that Biden isn't seated in the WH and we hang on to the Senate.  They know that their chances of winning have widened with this virus and economic downfall, but not enough to win.  That's why now they are promoting mail-in ballots and every liberal mental midget (including Fauci) is saying that it's too soon to reopen....blah...blah....  Just my humble opinion here.

[truth_seeker]

We are really are in uncharted territory.  I am a little bit more optmistic based on whether we can maximize the "temporary" aspects of this crisis.  The quicker we can return to some level of normalcy, the less impact we will see.

Trump is the right guy, to "talk-up" the economy from the "bully-pulpit."

[PeteS in CA]

Another computer model? GIGO is the new Murphy's Law.

Will jobs return instantaneously? Obviously not. Will businesses and jobs rebuild over a year or three? Similarly obviously. I think Americans will out-think and -perform the GI-filled computer models, again.

[jmyrlefuller]

"I don't believe them. Haha." —Anthony Fauci

[Absalom]

A reflection.
As Nature deals in the trans-formative not the trivial; the notion
that any recovery will be V shaped, is too stupid for words.
Suggest key questions include:
* what industries have been crippled and will disappear?
* what industries will be created from this event?
and perhaps most importantly:
* to what degree will the attitude and behavior of plain people change?

[Fishrrman]

Bigun observed:
"I don't know about ten years but it is going to take some time even if the actions taken to remedy it are good. If they are bad ten years or more is a real possibility."

The democrat-communists don't need ten years.
They don't need five years.
All they need... is until November.

This is gonna be a tough one.
I wish I could be more optimistic...

[IsailedawayfromFR]

This is chicanery.

Of course job losses will occur.  How many social cruise directors of ship will now be needed now?

Instead there will be a plethora of new jobs out there replacing them.

[Smokin Joe]

Well, I guess it depends on which job losses are attributed to COVID-19.

The Oil Patch was already on the ropes because of the shenanigans the Russians and Saudis pulled. THose jobs aren't gone over COVID-19, but over low oil prices (that' would have caused massive layoffs in the drilling end of the business, and every drilling rig that shuts down means a slew of other jobs are in peril, for every four or five, expect jobs to be lost. Not only are the drilling company employees laid off, supervisory staff, geological and directional personnel, Drilling fluid engineers, truckers, water haulers, the people who rent out site housing and maintain it, earthwork contractors, feeder pipeline companies, etc., the list goes on. All the people who worked in the industries which supply the drilling operations lose jobs, and so forth. Those jobs won't be coming back for a while, not until the current surplus is used up, not until demand is back, and the price increases. Some will perhaps be back in a year. (perhaps).
Completions will likely lag as well, because there is no sense in spending the money to complete a well (fraccing, surface equipment, downhole production equipment) when the product will sell for less than it cost. Time easements have been given to permit oil companies to wait to complete DUC (Drilled but UnCompleted) wells.

Companies involved in doing completions will suffer some. Some will be involved in slowing production or shutting wells in for a while.

In the midstream, transportation/storage will go on, and staff will likely be mostly retained.
In the refining end, there have been slowdowns, and there may be furloughs there as well.

Those jobs affect other jobs, indirectly, but some of those jobs are also affected by COVID restrictions.

Just pointing out that not every job dies of the Coronavirus, just like not every patient. Expect some book cooking there, too.