There Is Now Only One Path to 355 Ships

[rangerrebew]

There Is Now Only One Path to 355 Ships

Even before the coronavirus pandemic, the chances that the Navy could spend its way to 355 ships were looking dim. Now the only way is to radically change its force structure plans.
By Harlan Ullman
April 2020
Proceedings
 
The 2018 National Defense Authorization Act decrees a 355-ship Navy. That the Navy has so far been unable to produce a viable plan in accordance with the law suggests that there are only two ways to obtain the number: spend more money or revolutionize the way the Navy plans for the future. 

Even before the Coronavirus pandemic caused great damage to our national economy and record levels of deficit spending, the prospects for future defense budgets were not bullish. Now, cuts in defense spending seem inevitable. And annual cost growth of about 5 percent for everything from people to precision weapons will force cuts to the size of the force unless addressed.

To get to 355 ships, the Navy will need a revolution. The last one occurred half a century ago in 1970 when then-Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Bud Zumwalt imposed Project 60 on the service. Those days were in some ways very different and yet familiar to today. 

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/april/there-now-only-one-path-355-ships

[Smokin Joe]

In the future, numbers will overwhelm both offense and defense. I can see where tactical drone 'motherships' may be more important to defense by providing low value targets to draw off fire by spoofing incoming ordinance, and where coordinated drone attack swarms could provide an advantage over even point defense weapons.

This is beyond mere bullets and bombs (and torpedos), and will require a little more science fiction in the rethink.

Smaller, faster, vessels with firepower multipliers will be essential, more stealthy, and easier to crew.