Author Topic: The coronavirus modellers are saying even North Dakota needs to stay locked down until July? (Read 1059 times)

mystery-ak · « **on:** April 25, 2020, 02:12:05 pm »

April 25, 2020
The coronavirus modellers are saying even North Dakota needs to stay locked down until July?
By Jack Hellner
The University of Washington's all-important Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE), which is those people who are bringing us all of these garbage-in-garbage-out coronavirus "models" that are killing our economy, is now saying the new safe opening date for North Dakota is July.

According to the latest statistics I can find, North Dakota has had 15 deaths attributed to COVID 19 in the last two months, based on state data.

North Dakota is a remote, sparsely populated, spread out state, well beyond the heavy urban centers where the coronavirus has exacted a heavy toll.

I found that around 6,000 people die in North Dakota every year or 500 per month.

So this group of supposed experts that wants to destroy the lives, wealth and income of tens of million of Americans, wants to keep North Dakota closed because of fifteen deaths (1.5% of total deaths) and most of those deaths are older people who have multiple morbidity risks.

more
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/the_coronavirus_modellers_are_saying_even_north_dakota_needs_to_stay_locked_down_until_july.html

PeteS in CA · « **Reply #1 on:** April 25, 2020, 02:21:27 pm »

The credibility of GIGO Inc, has suffered of late.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #2 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:07:36 pm »

Quote from: PeteS in CA on April 25, 2020, 02:21:27 pm

The credibility of GIGO Inc, has suffered of late.

A trend we need to propagate. This "modeling" is why the Left has been running around like a chicken with the head cut off for decades over Global Warming. This is serving as a real-time observation that their Models are FOS, and GIGO.

libertybele · « **Reply #3 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:25:15 pm »

The DEMS want mail-in voting. It's a simple as that. If they can manipulate the situation to where sparsely populated ND that has been pretty much untouched by this virus, then they can also manipulate more populated states to stay locked down far longer than July -- up till right around election time.

jmyrlefuller · « **Reply #4 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:29:33 pm »

It's not just garbage-in, garbage out; it's also sample size.

The IHME works great in New York, where you have a huge sample size, high density and lots of hospitalizations. But the smaller the populace, the more that statistical noise gets baked in. You have less density, less person-to-person contact, smaller social circles and thus a smaller R₀.

Since North Dakota isn't tracking recoveries, I'll use South Dakota as an example. South Dakota has 66 counties. A majority of themâ€”I counted 44, but I might have missed or double-counted while scrollingâ€”either no longer have any active cases or never have had any to begin with. But that Sioux Falls meat-packing plant outbreak skews the results for the whole state. Those 44 counties have no reason to be locked down.

I will also note that the IHME also projects no shortage in hospital or ICU beds for either North Dakota or South Dakota, so in those cases there is arguably no need for lockdown there.

libertybele · « **Reply #5 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:33:53 pm »

Quote from: jmyrlefuller on April 25, 2020, 06:29:33 pm

It's not just garbage-in, garbage out; it's also sample size.

The IHME works great in New York, where you have a huge sample size, high density and lots of hospitalizations. But the smaller the populace, the more that statistical noise gets baked in. You have less density, less person-to-person contact, smaller social circles and thus a smaller R₀.

Since North Dakota isn't tracking recoveries, I'll use South Dakota as an example. South Dakota has 66 counties. A majority of themâ€”I counted 44, but I might have missed or double-counted while scrollingâ€”either no longer have any active cases or never have had any to begin with. But that Sioux Falls meat-packing plant outbreak skews the results for the whole state. Those 44 counties have no reason to be locked down.

I will also note that the IHME also projects no shortage in hospital or ICU beds for either North Dakota or South Dakota, so in those cases there is arguably no need for lockdown there.

Several states have considerable "hot spots" in them. It would be prudent to keep these areas in lock down and let the rest of the states get on with their lives.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #6 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:42:05 pm »

Quote from: libertybele on April 25, 2020, 06:33:53 pm

Several states have considerable "hot spots" in them. It would be prudent to keep these areas in lock down and let the rest of the states get on with their lives.

I'll be looking at that when my governor gets around to issuing an Order. Let my County do it's thing, and let Maricopa County do theirs. The Rurals want restrictions lifted immediately and the Urbans don't want them lifted yet, but also don't want the Rurals to lift them, either. The restrictions were imposed statewide because the mayors of the 5 largest cities demanded it.

LegalAmerican · « **Reply #7 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:48:22 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 25, 2020, 06:07:36 pm

A trend we need to propagate. This "modeling" is why the Left has been running around like a chicken with the head cut off for decades over Global Warming. This is serving as a real-time observation that their Models are FOS, and GIGO.

Time to rebel. People die all the time.

TWILIGHT ZONE; 'TO SERVE MAN'. IT'S A COOK BOOK!

LegalAmerican · « **Reply #8 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:51:24 pm »

Quote from: libertybele on April 25, 2020, 06:25:15 pm

The DEMS want mail-in voting. It's a simple as that. If they can manipulate the situation to where sparsely populated ND that has been pretty much untouched by this virus, then they can also manipulate more populated states to stay locked down far longer than July -- up till right around election time.

My STATE already has that. DEMON-RAT RUN. NEVADA.

These people are control freaks. We are being "blackmailed'. SEE DR. KAUFMAN.

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conservativevoter · « **Reply #9 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:52:26 pm »

Dr. Fauci is considered in giving his opinions on the Chinese virus? He is with the NIH, correct? â€¦. And how much money did the NIH hand over to the Chicoms? Don't know much about Dr. Birx, but am not impressed. It just seems as though these two (especially) are good at diagnosing the Chinese virus, but not much for logistics like...â€¦ how many hospitals, respiractors, face masks, deaths, and the economy of the nations. It seems like they are suggesting by their actions that we should stay indoors and die.

Do we need them, or just people with common sense?

PeteS in CA · « **Reply #10 on:** April 25, 2020, 06:59:38 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 25, 2020, 06:07:36 pm

A trend we need to propagate. This "modeling" is why the Left has been running around like a chicken with the head cut off for decades over Global Warming. This is serving as a real-time observation that their Models are FOS, and GIGO.

Computer models can be useful tools, but cannot be substitutes for real observations. In electronics, this has been axiomatic for decades, and electronic device models have many fewer unknowns than for diseases in human populations.

The CDC/FDA/NIH/etc. made a huge mistake in thinking imperfect somethings - complex computer models with many unknowns - were better than nothing. And then there's the false "knowns" from China and WHO ...

LegalAmerican · « **Reply #11 on:** April 25, 2020, 07:09:00 pm »

This lady has some facts on both doctors. This is her latest on all things going on. PEPFAR

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LegalAmerican · « **Reply #12 on:** April 25, 2020, 07:18:50 pm »

If any of you want.....just hit YouTube on any of her video's. She has info on FAUCI & BRIX....I say if POTUS does not go along...MORE PEOPLE will die. THAT IS THE THREAT BY NWO GLOBALISTS. THEY WILL RELEASE EBOLA...like Obama did not stop planes from those infected country's in his term. THIS POTUS IS TRYING TO SAVE LIVES EVERYWHERE.

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LegalAmerican · « **Reply #13 on:** April 25, 2020, 07:21:42 pm »

Quote from: mystery-ak on April 25, 2020, 02:12:05 pm

April 25, 2020
The coronavirus modellers are saying even North Dakota needs to stay locked down until July?
By Jack Hellner
The University of Washington's all-important Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE), which is those people who are bringing us all of these garbage-in-garbage-out coronavirus "models" that are killing our economy, is now saying the new safe opening date for North Dakota is July.

According to the latest statistics I can find, North Dakota has had 15 deaths attributed to COVID 19 in the last two months, based on state data.

North Dakota is a remote, sparsely populated, spread out state, well beyond the heavy urban centers where the coronavirus has exacted a heavy toll.

I found that around 6,000 people die in North Dakota every year or 500 per month.

So this group of supposed experts that wants to destroy the lives, wealth and income of tens of million of Americans, wants to keep North Dakota closed because of fifteen deaths (1.5% of total deaths) and most of those deaths are older people who have multiple morbidity risks.

more
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/the_coronavirus_modellers_are_saying_even_north_dakota_needs_to_stay_locked_down_until_july.html

Just a side. Notice Amazing Polly's, our left..picture of Templer Knight?

PeteS in CA · « **Reply #14 on:** April 25, 2020, 07:24:01 pm »

@LegalAmerican, could you give the time markers for the video where she makes her points about Drs. Fauci and Birx?

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #15 on:** April 25, 2020, 07:41:11 pm »

Quote from: PeteS in CA on April 25, 2020, 06:59:38 pm

Computer models can be useful tools, but cannot be substitutes for real observations. In electronics, this has been axiomatic for decades, and electronic device models have many fewer unknowns than for diseases in human populations.

The CDC/FDA/NIH/etc. made a huge mistake in thinking imperfect somethings - complex computer models with many unknowns - were better than nothing. And then there's the false "knowns" from China and WHO ...

Tell me about it! I spend the last quarter-century working on teams to develop the electronic models. I can vouch for their accuracy, because they're still in use in the company I retired from in '18. There is no profit in producing garbage models, they needed to be accurate representations of the real-life device behavior in the field.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #16 on:** April 25, 2020, 07:44:15 pm »

Quote from: LegalAmerican on April 25, 2020, 06:51:24 pm

My STATE already has that. DEMON-RAT RUN. NEVADA.

That reminds me...when do you think Sisolak is going to take the boot off Las Vegas' neck?

LegalAmerican · « **Reply #17 on:** April 25, 2020, 07:53:36 pm »

THIS IS SO FUNNY, FROM GERMANY!
--------------------------------------------------------

- Look at Germany on the JHU dashboard and then look at NYC !! Not the USA, not NY state, just New York!
What the hell are you doing over there? bleep each others noses?!

And, no. We do not have any of the hysterical measures you perform in your city here in Germany.
We just wash our hands with good old soap and keep 6 to 9 feet distance. Indoors and outdoors and at all times.

Everybody is going normally to the supermarket, to the park for picknick and jogging or to system relevant or isolated work . Alone! Next to no one is wearing face masks apart from hot food deliveries. Nobody is spraying people or things with poisonous disinfectant, or have seating rules like in playschool or other crazy shit dot com. Your cooling containers for the dead!! Jesus Christ!! And unlike China, which was hit out of the dark, you had 3 months warning!
So what the bleep are you doing, Americans?!

LegalAmerican · « **Reply #18 on:** April 25, 2020, 08:04:55 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 25, 2020, 07:44:15 pm

That reminds me...when do you think Sisolak is going to take the boot off Las Vegas' neck?

I have no idea. He even declared Health Food stores have to close in NEVADA, so that people 'can't help themselves' with natural products. He also declared people cannot use hydrocloraquine sp? in Nevada. SO THESE LEFTS....want people to die. Agenda 21. I believe. I had this virus twice. NO test. Why? I don't get tested for any flu or colds I may have. I have built up antibodies. Then I use silver, Zinc lozenges, green tea and I made some Elderberry tincture. Here I am to agitate most people with my posts. HA! I AM A SENIOR. TMI? ( I can tell you my symptoms if it is allowed on here.)

I had some personal experience with Sisolack, 30 years ago, while doing his bookkeeping at CPA firm. VILE, NASTY,EVIL, PERSON.

cato potatoe · « **Reply #19 on:** April 25, 2020, 08:08:30 pm »

Nobody is forcing our leaders to destroy the private sector. Politicians love to defer to the "experts" and their models. It's their way of evading responsibility for disastrous policy decisions. We must hold them accountable.

LegalAmerican · « **Reply #20 on:** April 25, 2020, 08:09:59 pm »

Quote from: PeteS in CA on April 25, 2020, 07:24:01 pm

@LegalAmerican, could you give the time markers for the video where she makes her points about Drs. Fauci and Birx?

I don't think it is on this video; You want me to go to her site & post it for you? I will.
---------------------------------------------------------
If any of you want.....just hit YouTube on any of her video's. She has info on FAUCI & BRIX....

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LegalAmerican · « **Reply #21 on:** April 25, 2020, 08:12:05 pm »

Quote from: cato potatoe on April 25, 2020, 08:08:30 pm

Nobody is forcing our leaders to destroy the private sector. Politicians love to defer to the "experts" and their models. It's their way of evading responsibility for disastrous policy decisions. We must hold them accountable.

CORRECT. WE THE PEOPLE.....are allowing it. No one else to blame, but us. WE ARE NOT ACCOUNTABLE.

Hoodat · « **Reply #22 on:** April 25, 2020, 08:13:13 pm »

Quote

The University of Washington's all-important Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE), which is those people who are bringing us all of these garbage-in-garbage-out coronavirus "models" that are killing our economy, is now saying the new safe opening date for North Dakota is July.

Typical. Liberals in another state trying to dictate what North Dakota can and cannot do. As if abortion, marriage, and open borders weren't enough.

LegalAmerican · « **Reply #23 on:** April 25, 2020, 08:24:15 pm »

I can't post all of her videos'. March 31, 2020

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Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #24 on:** April 25, 2020, 08:30:50 pm »

Quote from: Hoodat on April 25, 2020, 08:13:13 pm

Typical. Liberals in another state trying to dictate what North Dakota can and cannot do. As if abortion, marriage, and open borders weren't enough.

I suppose it's up to ND if they comply, right? The CDC does not dictate to the States, they have to do it to themselves.

Quote from: LegalAmerican on April 25, 2020, 08:04:55 pm

I have no idea. He even declared Health Food stores have to close in NEVADA, so that people 'can't help themselves' with natural products. He also declared people cannot use hydrocloraquine sp? in Nevada. SO THESE LEFTS....want people to die. Agenda 21. I believe. I had this virus twice. NO test. Why? I don't get tested for any flu or colds I may have. I have built up antibodies. Then I use silver, Zinc lozenges, green tea and I made some Elderberry tincture. Here I am to agitate most people with my posts. HA! I AM A SENIOR. TMI? ( I can tell you my symptoms if it is allowed on here.)

I had some personal experience with Sisolack, 30 years ago, while doing his bookkeeping at CPA firm. VILE, NASTY,EVIL, PERSON.

@LegalAmerican Thanks for the update on Nevada. Yes, Sisolak did try to prohibit the use of Hydrocloroquine treatments for COVID. It stood for about two days, until the FDA made an emergency rule to permit the use. Whitless of MI did that too. The Doctors had already said the Governor can't tell them how they can treat their patients, so I appreciate the FDA for taking that pressure off of them.

I have reasons of my own to hope the Casinos in Clark County open soon. Laughlin is in Clark, across the Colorado River from my little town. We have a LOT of Casino employees that got thrown out of work last month, most of the 8,000 laid off workers live on my side of that river, in Arizona. Free Vegas and you free my town, too.

(We don't need to know your symptoms...we're good.)