Actual Hospitalizations for Coronavirus Significantly Lower than Projections in Model

[mystery-ak]

Michael Patrick Leahy 3 Apr 2020

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by White House Coronavirus Task Force officials appears to dramatically overstate the hospitalization of patients with coronavirus in the United States when the model’s projections are compared to actual data, a Breitbart News analysis finds.

Breitbart News compared projections of the number of regular hospital beds needed to treat coronavirus patients made in the Friday, April 3 iteration of the IHME model for nine states to the actual number of cumulative hospitalizations (a number that includes current regular bed hospitalizations, current ICU hospitalizations, previously hospitalized and released patients, and previously hospitalized and deceased patients) reported by the respective health departments in those states as of Thursday, April 2.

more
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/03/actual-hospitalizations-for-coronavirus-significantly-lower-than-projections-in-model/

[Bigun]

Total number of people on respirators in USA as of 4/04 12:23 ET = 70.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

[aligncare]

Total number of people on respirators in USA as of 4/04 12:23 ET = 70.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

People on the sidelines are in one of two camps. Those that feel the media response to corona virus is genuine and the threat very serious, and those that think this is an overreaction to commonly experienced viral infection and wonder why corona has been treated so differently from every other recent contagious outbreak. I’m with the latter.

[Bigun]

People on the sidelines are in one of two camps. Those that feel the media response to corona virus is genuine and the threat very serious, and those that think this is an overreaction to commonly experienced viral infection and wonder why corona has been treated so differently from every other recent contagious outbreak. I’m with the latter.

  Right there with you @aligncare

[PeteS in CA]

The projections of any computer model are as good as the ASSumptions that went into formulating the model and the data fed into it. In programming terms, GIGO^2.

Any model that acknowledges the existence of Chinese data other than to dismiss it is bogus at its core.

[Bigun]

The projections of any computer model are as good as the ASSumptions that went into formulating the model and the data fed into it. In programming terms, GIGO^2.

Any model that acknowledges the existence of Chinese data other than to dismiss it is bogus at its core.

  Absolutely right @PeteS in CA

[aligncare]

Right there with you @aligncare

What’s significant here is that politicians seem to have the final say on the measures taken in response to this infection, not doctors.

When I see something like that I can’t help but think that in politics there are no coincidences. Every word and action these pols take follows an outline, a script, and a desired outcome—usually with them reaping the benefits and not the public.

[TomSea]

This is good news, citizens have done their part in fighting this by practicing social distancing and staying home.

[Free Vulcan]

Good. Let's hope this is true. I was far more worried about the inundation of our health care system leading to more deaths than the actual virus itself, considering what went on in China.

[aligncare]

Good. Let's hope this is true. I was far more worried about the inundation of our health care system leading to more deaths than the actual virus itself, considering what went on in China.

In NYC a hospital is the most dangerous place to be. People needing medical attention for routine or continuing treatment for non corona related issues are discouraged from going to a hospital, and doctor’s’ offices are stretched to their limits and are not accepting appointments for anything not related to URI symptoms.

My wife works at a nursing home and she told me one floor lost 3 patients to corona and the entire floor was stripped of everything not affixed to real property and disposed of because of contamination.

NYC is a mess.

[truth_seeker]

This is good news, citizens have done their part in fighting this by practicing social distancing and staying home.

No no. No good new is permitted. If it isn't the media and dems, oit is some on the right, who complain there are not enough sick people in the Navy hospital shhips. (Those ship- resources were intended to handle overflow, should the local resources fill entirely up.)

[ChemEngrMBA]

Total number of people on respirators in USA as of 4/04 12:23 ET = 70.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

656 as of 5:34 PM ET.  I doubt it rose almost 600 in a day.

[ChemEngrMBA]

No no. No good new is permitted.

Just ask Once-Ler, who claims to be a Republican.
Bottom line:  "Orange Man Bad".  Nothing more need be said.

[libertybele]

Good. Let's hope this is true. I was far more worried about the inundation of our health care system leading to more deaths than the actual virus itself, considering what went on in China.

Exactly.  That has been my greatest concern as well as hospitals in my area are already overwhelmed. They are looking at alternative sites to make into hospitals.  Our local sports arena will NOT allow them to convert saying that they are working on the roof.  So ... I'm hoping that they have secured a couple of places and are working diligently to get them converted. In the past 2 days we have had over 2,800 new cases in FL.

I haven't been able to get a hold of one of my doctors -- I finally got a half-baked response this morning to create a patient account on line to communicate with my doctor -- virtual and phone appointments only.   Keep in mind that in my county we right now have 308 cases ... and I can't get into the darn doctor!!   On the news it was emphasized that EMS was only to be used for extreme emergencies only.  I'm still trying to decide the difference between an emergency and an extreme emergency!   

[Bigun]

656 as of 5:34 PM ET.  I doubt it rose almost 600 in a day.

Whatever the current number is there are orders of magnitude less on them than were predicted to be.  I'm happy about that personally.

[musiclady]

This is good news, citizens have done their part in fighting this by practicing social distancing and staying home.

This is exactly why the numbers are better than the projections. (Different models have projected different numbers, however).

People have taken social distancing seriously and staying home, schools and colleges are online only, church services are online, people are supporting local restaurants by eating carry out......

IOW,  the very thing the naysayers are mocking is what is keeping the cases and hospitalizations down.

Just a word, though....... the hospitals in many places are still being overwhelmed, and young, healthy people are dying in a matter of days.  This is still a very different animal than we've ever seen before, so hopefully these numbers hold and this will not be as bad as it surely would have been had we not been smart.

The vast majority of Americans "get it."

[musiclady]

To correct an error written above, Ohio alone has 326 COVID patients in the ICU (3739 cases and 1006 hospitalized), and we (though 7th in population) are the 16th from the top in cases.

That means there are 15 states with more cases, and likely more on ventilators.

70 in the entire country on ventilators??  Not a chance.

Not incidentally, since Ohio led the way in social distancing and restrictions, we are far below the numbers of other populous states. ..... Michigan to our north has 12,744 cases - almost 4 times more than we have.

Social distancing works. And because it has slowed the spread, our great hospitals in Ohio (including Cleveland Clinic) are having time to increase beds, get more ventilators, and prepare for the increase that is coming in the next few weeks.

And because of THAT lives will be saved......... including the lives of our doctors and nurses who are sacrificing their safety and their health to protect others.

[musiclady]

Exactly.  That has been my greatest concern as well as hospitals in my area are already overwhelmed. They are looking at alternative sites to make into hospitals.  Our local sports arena will NOT allow them to convert saying that they are working on the roof.  So ... I'm hoping that they have secured a couple of places and are working diligently to get them converted. In the past 2 days we have had over 2,800 new cases in FL.

I haven't been able to get a hold of one of my doctors -- I finally got a half-baked response this morning to create a patient account on line to communicate with my doctor -- virtual and phone appointments only.   Keep in mind that in my county we right now have 308 cases ... and I can't get into the darn doctor!!   On the news it was emphasized that EMS was only to be used for extreme emergencies only.  I'm still trying to decide the difference between an emergency and an extreme emergency!   

People in Ohio are also being encouraged to do e-visits to our primary care docs.  The reason for that is that people with more normal medical needs are not being potentially infected by patients coming in with COVID 19.

I have a regular check up coming up in early May, and I anticipate doing it online.  I've done it once and it was quite easy and I was glad I didn't have to go in to the doctor even before this pandemic hit us.

[musiclady]

In NYC a hospital is the most dangerous place to be. People needing medical attention for routine or continuing treatment for non corona related issues are discouraged from going to a hospital, and doctor’s’ offices are stretched to their limits and are not accepting appointments for anything not related to URI symptoms.

My wife works at a nursing home and she told me one floor lost 3 patients to corona and the entire floor was stripped of everything not affixed to real property and disposed of because of contamination.

NYC is a mess.

Because of a Dem Governor and Dem Mayor who stupidly encouraged people to keep gathering in social settings after smarter Governors were telling people to stay home.

And there are obviously a lot of New Yorkers who don't have the brains God gave them and are still gathering in crowds in spite of the mess NY hospitals are in.