Analyst Discovers a Major Flaw in IHME Model Used by White House; Actual Numbers are a Fraction of

[txradioguy]

Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” Davis makes his case through a series of tweets (below).

Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.

The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia.

https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/04/02/analyst-discovers-a-major-flaw-in-imhe-coronavirus-model-used-by-white-house-heres-why/

[Smokin Joe]

I am just shocked that the rest of the world doesn't exist on the NYC/NJ paradigm. How ever would we live?
(Sorry, Valley Gurl is the other side of the map, my bad.)

[jmyrlefuller]

Most of the country began social distancing to various degrees at the same time, the second week of March, which is when all the sporting events started to get canceled. Now, they've taken that to various lengths, but New York and New Jersey already had so many infections floating around that they were already primed to explode no matter what anyone did. Remember, the testing is about two weeks behind, and New York City has so many people that their R₀ was going to be higher. Those still well behind that are going to see the results of that distancing and have slower rates of infection.

[Smokin Joe]

Most of the country began social distancing to various degrees at the same time, the second week of March, which is when all the sporting events started to get canceled. Now, they've taken that to various lengths, but New York and New Jersey already had so many infections floating around that they were already primed to explode no matter what anyone did. Remember, the testing is about two weeks behind, and New York City has so many people that their R₀ was going to be higher. Those still well behind that are going to see the results of that distancing and have slower rates of infection.

We didn't have a big Lunar New Year celebration we were all told to enjoy because the virus was way overstated, either.  Lower population density, the relative lack of communally shared enclosed spaces (elevators, taxicabs, subways, etc.) in flyover country generally reduces pathogen exchange.

[roamer_1]

Most of the country began social distancing to various degrees at the same time, the second week of March, which is when all the sporting events started to get canceled. Now, they've taken that to various lengths, but New York and New Jersey already had so many infections floating around that they were already primed to explode no matter what anyone did. Remember, the testing is about two weeks behind, and New York City has so many people that their R₀ was going to be higher. Those still well behind that are going to see the results of that distancing and have slower rates of infection.

That could be right - but there also could be a time delay sequenced into it, along with a preference that favors old-style inner city neighborhoods...

If that is the case as an instance, we should see Detroit and Chicago blowing up later in much the same fashion...

West coast cities generally (perhaps omitting Frisco, Portland, and Seattle as 'old school') are more sprawling, and less susceptible in their modes of mass transit, may show a different sort of infection curve, as will generally more rural areas.

[truth_seeker]

The word "quarantine" means 40 days, for time ships waited outside the harbor of Venice in the 15th century 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine

Wiki states the practice dates to Biblical times