Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2

[Cyber Liberty]

Me thinks you're going to have a full house -- I'll bring some burgers to throw on the grill.

Grab an extra bottle of Propane on the way, I'm running low and I don't have a spare yet....

[Hoodat]

04-10-2020 | 19:52 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	3.371 ↑	4.094 ↓
United States	1.462 ↓	18.410 ↓
China	23.218 ↑	1.057 ↓

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 48,773
Recovery Rate after 14 days - 28.5 %  ↓

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Recoveries in the US continue to go unreported.

[Hoodat]

Total cases per 1 million population:

Sweden -   959
Norway -  1,162
Denmark - 1,005
US - 1,490

[Formerly Once-Ler]

much lol

[musiclady]

Keep in mind that with all the numbers in almost every country, and especially here in the US, that the cases are vastly underreported due to minimal testing.

The testing in most places is still reserved for the sickest, so that many, many people who have the virus with lesser symptoms, or who are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic, are not included in those numbers.

Any percentages derived from incomplete data, and any conclusions based on that data, is by its very nature inaccurate.

Just a caution going forward.......... we're not going to understand the full impact of this pandemic for a long time.

[musiclady]

04-10-2020 | 19:52 GMT

REGION	Recov:Death	Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)	3.371 ↑	4.094 ↓
United States	1.462 ↓	18.410 ↓
China	23.218 ↑	1.057 ↓

US 14-day Recovery Deficit - 48,773
Recovery Rate after 14 days - 28.5 %  ↓

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Recoveries in the US continue to go unreported.

As of today the recoveries in the US are 27,612.

This number is given daily, as well as the number of recoveries state by state at the Johns Hopkins Resource Center.

[roamer_1]

My substance abuse has gotten way better.

Practice, practice, practice! 

[roamer_1]

Grab an extra bottle of Propane on the way, I'm running low and I don't have a spare yet....

Propane??   

[Hoodat]

As of today the recoveries in the US are 27,612.

This number is given daily, as well as the number of recoveries state by state at the Johns Hopkins Resource Center.

I know how many reported recoveries there are.  But I also know how many reported cases and deaths there are.  It is my understanding that over 95% of people contracting this disease recover within 14 days. 

March 27
93,881 cases

Deaths since March 27
16,902

Recoveries since March 27
24,336

Minimum number of people diagnosed by March 27 who are still alive today
76,979

That leaves 52,643 people who had the disease on March 27 who are neither reported as died or recovered.  Can you explain why 50,000+ people who have survived after 2 weeks are not being reported as 'recovered'?

If your feel the recovery period is longer than 14 days, then give me a link showing the average of how many days it takes, and I will adjust my calculation accordingly.

[Hoodat]

My substance abuse has gotten way better.

I knew a woman who could hit both arms with needles at the same time.  Let's just say that she was ambidextrous.

[catfish1957]

Federal Debt Tops $24 Trillion for First Time; GAO: 'The Current Federal Fiscal Path is Unsustainable

https://www.cnsnews.com/article/washington/terence-p-jeffrey/federal-debt-tops-24-trillion-first-time-gao-current-federal

Thank you to all the idiot presidents and legislators of the past 50 years, who have put us in the F'N boat. /s   

[musiclady]

I know how many reported recoveries there are.  But I also know how many reported cases and deaths there are.  It is my understanding that over 95% of people contracting this disease recover within 14 days. 

March 27
93,881 cases

Deaths since March 27
16,902

Recoveries since March 27
24,336

Minimum number of people diagnosed by March 27 who are still alive today
76,979

That leaves 52,643 people who had the disease on March 27 who are neither reported as died or recovered.  Can you explain why 50,000+ people who have survived after 2 weeks are not being reported as 'recovered'?

If your feel the recovery period is longer than 14 days, then give me a link showing the average of how many days it takes, and I will adjust my calculation accordingly.

A person is considered to be recovered 7 days after the symptoms have gone.  I do know that the average hospital stay for COVID19, rather than the average 3 day hospital stay is 20 days, so it seems as if there is some disparity in recovery time for different people with different degrees of illness.

I do know that many people who are asymptomatic or who have mild symptoms and just stay home are recovering, and are not yet included in the numbers.

My only caution is that drawing any conclusions based on present data is premature.  The thing we can all know is that there are far more recoveries than are being reported because there are far more cases than are being presently recorded.

It's too early in the game to know what's really going on, but I was just responding to your statement that recoveries weren't being reported, when in fact, they are.  Just not all of them because it is an unknown.

[Cyber Liberty]

Propane??   

Too lazy for wood or charcoal....

I sear my steaks with a blow torch.  Had one last night, yum!

[Hoodat]

Thank you to all the idiot presidents and legislators of the past 50 years, who have put us in the F'N boat. /s   

Ditto.

[Cyber Liberty]

A person is considered to be recovered 7 days after the symptoms have gone.  I do know that the average hospital stay for COVID19, rather than the average 3 day hospital stay is 20 days, so it seems as if there is some disparity in recovery time for different people with different degrees of illness.

I do know that many people who are asymptomatic or who have mild symptoms and just stay home are recovering, and are not yet included in the numbers.

My only caution is that drawing any conclusions based on present data is premature.  The thing we can all know is that there are far more recoveries than are being reported because there are far more cases than are being presently recorded.

It's too early in the game to know what's really going on, but I was just responding to your statement that recoveries weren't being reported, when in fact, they are.  Just not all of them because it is an unknown.

That's the difference between "non-reporting" and "under-reporting."  I find it curious the number of total cases - deaths != recoveries.  That's a red flag for the data-taker in me.  It's binary:  People either recover, or they die.  Can the discrepancy be covered by still-active cases?  The totals @Hoodat posted suggest there are some recoveries not being reported.  I think there is uncertainty about how long it is between a positive test and a patient is declared "recovered."

IOW, I would not chalk that up to nefarious actions, at least not yet.  By the end of the month that judgement may change.

[musiclady]

That's the difference between "non-reporting" and "under-reporting."  I find it curious the number of total cases - deaths != recoveries.  That's a red flag for the data-taker in me.  It's binary:  People either recover, or they die.  Can the discrepancy be covered by still-active cases?  The totals @Hoodat posted suggest there are some recoveries not being reported.  I think there is uncertainty about how long it is between a positive test and a patient is declared "recovered."

IOW, I would not chalk that up to nefarious actions, at least not yet.  By the end of the month that judgement may change.

Again.......... the information I'm getting is from my own state, and I know for a fact that there are many cases, and obviously some recoveries that have not been reported simply because they are not yet known.

The concentration has been, because it has had to be, on the most serious cases, and those requiring hospitalization, and the testing has been limited.

As of today, there have been only 55,985 tests given in Ohio (out of 11,646,273 people), so obviously no conclusions should be drawn about anything now........... cases, recoveries, or even deaths.

It's a long way from where we are now to suspect anything nefarious regarding the numbers of recoveries given.

Patience is going to be required, and in our instant society, patience isn't our strong suit.

We just have to wait for accurate numbers, and any conclusions drawn from those numbers.

[Hoodat]

Again.......... the information I'm getting is from my own state, and I know for a fact that there are many cases, and obviously some recoveries that have not been reported

Which is exactly my point.

[Cyber Liberty]

Again.......... the information I'm getting is from my own state, and I know for a fact that there are many cases, and obviously some recoveries that have not been reported simply because they are not yet known.

The concentration has been, because it has had to be, on the most serious cases, and those requiring hospitalization, and the testing has been limited.

As of today, there have been only 55,985 tests given in Ohio (out of 11,646,273 people), so obviously no conclusions should be drawn about anything now........... cases, recoveries, or even deaths.

It's a long way from where we are now to suspect anything nefarious regarding the numbers of recoveries given.

Patience is going to be required, and in our instant society, patience isn't our strong suit.

We just have to wait for accurate numbers, and any conclusions drawn from those numbers.

Agree about it still being too early for the data to be settled, but policy decisions are required now, when the data are incomplete.  That's where I expect to see shady actions and fear-mongering.  Incomplete data are an open invitation to fabrication.  Out-and-out fudging of the data is another matter entirely.

[truth_seeker]

Los Angeles AM radio 640 talking now about a study of 1000 randomized people, to determine how many have andibodies indicating immunity from prior recovery.

These types of stats, weigh very heavily on getting back to work, regaining confidence is worker and customer safety, etc.

Talking with my fellow board member of our non-profit AA meeting hall, and preparing for eventual re-opening (sort of like churches, libraries, other group meeting places).

[musiclady]

Agree about it still being too early for the data to be settled, but policy decisions are required now, when the data are incomplete.  That's where I expect to see shady actions and fear-mongering.  Incomplete data are an open invitation to fabrication.  Out-and-out fudging of the data is another matter entirely.

Again, much of my information is coming from my own state, but I know the Governor, Lt.Gov, and legislature are working this weekend on the specifics of how we come out of this.  They have had a game plan all the way, and the destruction of Ohio's economy was never part of it.

Next week, they'll begin telling us where we're headed, and I have confidence that they will be turning things around as quickly as it can be done.

[musiclady]

Which is exactly my point.

So you're allowing yourself to agree with me?

I'll be darned.....

[Hoodat]

Agree about it still being too early for the data to be settled, but policy decisions are required now, when the data are incomplete.

The data would be more complete if they put as much effort towards reporting good news (i.e. recoveries) as they do deaths and cases.  Reporting good news has not been a priority.

[Hoodat]

So you're allowing yourself to agree with me?

I'll be darned.....

Believe whatever you feel you need to believe.  I have been saying for many days now that recoveries are going unreported.  It didn't begin as an agreement to something you posted.

[roamer_1]

The data would be more complete if they put as much effort towards reporting good news (i.e. recoveries) as they do deaths and cases.  Reporting good news has not been a priority.

The data is nonsense and has been since the get-go.

[Fishrrman]

There's no sign of things slowing down in CT, particularly the western end of the state (where I am):
(I apologize for the formatting, just can't get it right with the software the GBR is using)

Date      Cases      Daily      Deaths   Daily
            Inc.            Inc.
3/7      0         
3/8      1      1      
3/9      1      0      
3/10      2      1      
3/11      3      1      
3/12      6      3      
3/13      6      0      
3/14      11      5      
3/15      20      9      
3/16      26      6      
3/17      41      15      0   
3/18      68      27      0   
3/19      96      28      1      1
3/20      194      98      3      2
3/21      194      0      4      1
3/22      223      29      5      1
3/23      415      192      10      5
3/24      618      203      12      2
3/25      875      257      19      7
3/26      1,012   137      21      2
3/27      1,291   279      27      6
3/28      1,291   0      27      0
3/29      1,993   702      34      7
3/30      2,571   578      36      2
3/31      3,128   557      69      33
4/1      3,557   429      85      16
4/2      3,824   267      112      27
4/3      4,914   1,090   132      20
4/4      5,276   362      165      33
4/5      5,675   399      189      24
4/6      6,906   1,231   206      17
4/7      7,781   875      277      71
4/8      8,781   1,000   335      58
4/9      9,784   1,003   380      45
4/10      10,538   754      448      68