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Offline DB

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #650 on: April 06, 2020, 09:02:41 pm »
It is pretty obvious the "models" are guesses. There have to be a whole lot of variables that can't be accounted for accurately. One being human behavior...
« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 09:16:27 pm by DB »
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Offline txradioguy

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #651 on: April 06, 2020, 09:04:41 pm »
Quote from: DB on April 06, 2020, 09:02:41 pm
It is pretty obvious the "models" are guesses. There have to be a whole lot of variables that can't be account for accurately. One being human behavior...

Another is accurate reporting of how a person died.  Was the cause of death the virus.  Or was it a heart attack and the person also tested positive for the virus.

In a lot of places if the heart attack kills you but you test positive for the virus...you go into the same stats as the people actually killed by the virus.
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The libs/dems of today are the Quislings of former years. The cowards who would vote a fraud into office in exchange for handouts from the devil.

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Offline musiclady

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #652 on: April 06, 2020, 09:06:22 pm »
Quote from: DB on April 06, 2020, 09:02:41 pm
It is pretty obvious the "models" are guesses. There have to be a whole lot of variables that can't be account for accurately. One being human behavior...

Dr. Acton here in Ohio is going to detail what "modeling" means later this week.  She's been extremely reliable through this.

And one thing she said today regarding modeling is precisely what you are referring to here.

Human behavior can mitigate scientific predictions because it is humans who pass the virus to each other.  When there is less human contact, there is less spread, and when that is sustained over a long period of time, less people than predicted get sick.

It's not that hard to understand, IMO, if logic is applied.....
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Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline Hoodat

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #653 on: April 06, 2020, 09:06:45 pm »
04-06-2020 | 20:45 GMT

REGIONRecov:Death     Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)  3.016 ↑  4.924 ↓
United States  1.803 ↓ 18.761 ↑
China 23.140 ↑  1.060 ↓


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Recoveries are going unreported in the US.  Fourteen days ago, there were to date over 43,000 reported cases in the US.  For the sake of argument, let's assume worst case that all 10,000 of those who have died since Mar 23 belonged to this group of 43,000.  That still leaves 33,000 who would have recovered after two weeks.  Yet only 19,000 recoveries are being reported.

On Mar 28, the US surpassed 100,000 cases.  By April 11, we should expect the number of recoveries closing in on that same number.
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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #654 on: April 06, 2020, 09:07:30 pm »
Quote from: txradioguy on April 06, 2020, 09:04:41 pm
Another is accurate reporting of how a person died.  Was the cause of death the virus.  Or was it a heart attack and the person also tested positive for the virus.

In a lot of places if the heart attack kills you but you test positive for the virus...you go into the same stats as the people actually killed by the virus.

As with most things in life, it's all GIGO.
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Offline musiclady

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #655 on: April 06, 2020, 09:11:04 pm »
Quote from: txradioguy on April 06, 2020, 09:04:41 pm
Another is accurate reporting of how a person died.  Was the cause of death the virus.  Or was it a heart attack and the person also tested positive for the virus.

In a lot of places if the heart attack kills you but you test positive for the virus...you go into the same stats as the people actually killed by the virus.

It's going to take time to assess all of that.  Any conclusion being drawn one way or the other is by its very nature, incorrect at this point in time.

In some hospitals the deaths are so numerous that I would be sure that proper autopsies have not been given to those who died........  especially in countries like Italy, where the bodies piled up, and in NYC where the number of cases was overwhelming the hospitals.

So anyone outside saying NO.  These people did not die of COVID, is not speaking with any kind of authority.
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Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline txradioguy

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #656 on: April 06, 2020, 09:15:08 pm »
Quote from: musiclady on April 06, 2020, 09:06:22 pm
Dr. Acton here in Ohio is going to detail what "modeling" means later this week.  She's been extremely reliable through this.

And one thing she said today regarding modeling is precisely what you are referring to here.

Human behavior can mitigate scientific predictions because it is humans who pass the virus to each other.  When there is less human contact, there is less spread, and when that is sustained over a long period of time, less people than predicted get sick.

It's not that hard to understand, IMO, if logic is applied.....

The modeling for Ohio according to the IMHE had Ohio suffering almost 2,000 deaths.  It's been reduced to a little over 500.

It will go lower.

But the damage will already have been done.  And no one will be held accountable for what the wild predictions did to not only the society but the economy as well.
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The libs/dems of today are the Quislings of former years. The cowards who would vote a fraud into office in exchange for handouts from the devil.

Here lies in honored glory an American soldier, known but to God

THE ESTABLISHMENT IS THE PROBLEM...NOT THE SOLUTION

Republicans Don't Need A Back Bench...They Need a BACKBONE!

Offline musiclady

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #657 on: April 06, 2020, 09:15:12 pm »
Quote from: Hoodat on April 06, 2020, 09:06:45 pm
04-06-2020 | 20:45 GMT

REGIONRecov:Death     Cases:Recov
Global (excluding China & US)  3.016 ↑  4.924 ↓
United States  1.803 ↓ 18.761 ↑
China 23.140 ↑  1.060 ↓


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Recoveries are going unreported in the US.  Fourteen days ago, there were to date over 43,000 reported cases in the US.  For the sake of argument, let's assume worst case that all 10,000 of those who have died since Mar 23 belonged to this group of 43,000.  That still leaves 33,000 who would have recovered after two weeks.  Yet only 19,000 recoveries are being reported.

On Mar 28, the US surpassed 100,000 cases.  By April 11, we should expect the number of recoveries closing in on that same number.

One of the reasons recoveries are hard to assess is that people who had milder cases and weren't hospitalized after a certain amount of time can be presumed to be recovered.

But all of that data will not be gathered until the bulk of the crisis is over.

One thing that is sure is that there are more recoveries than have been reported, just as there are far more cases than have been reported.

Serological testing after the fact is when we will find all of this out.
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Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline DB

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #658 on: April 06, 2020, 09:15:38 pm »
Quote from: txradioguy on April 06, 2020, 09:04:41 pm
Another is accurate reporting of how a person died.  Was the cause of death the virus.  Or was it a heart attack and the person also tested positive for the virus.

In a lot of places if the heart attack kills you but you test positive for the virus...you go into the same stats as the people actually killed by the virus.

If they hadn't got the virus would they still be alive?

There's a report a little up thread that 20% of those infected with this virus and required medical care suffered heart damage in the process. It's a messy deadly brew...

The numbers in the end will have to be cleaned up/estimated by the researchers.

Probably one of the few accurate indicators will be how much the total death rate changes day to day from before through to after this passes excluding non medical related deaths (murder, accidents, etc). If thousands more die than what is typical over this same time frame from previous years it can be attributed to this virus with some confidence. The death rate from car accidents has probably crashed in comparison...

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Offline musiclady

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #659 on: April 06, 2020, 09:19:29 pm »
Quote from: txradioguy on April 06, 2020, 09:15:08 pm
The modeling for Ohio according to the IMHE had Ohio suffering almost 2,000 deaths.  It's been reduced to a little over 500.

It will go lower.

But the damage will already have been done.  And no one will be held accountable for what the wild predictions did to not only the society but the economy as well.

That is one opinion.

But what if......... what if......... the social distancing is the very reason that the modeling was inaccurate?  I again, ask you to apply logic to your view and try to understand that it is humans who transmit the disease and when humans are staying put, they are not transmitting, so the numbers decrease exponentially.

As for Ohio's economy, we will recover............ and we will begin recovering sooner because we were smart and stayed where we were for a few weeks.

The damage to our economy would be far greater in the long run if we DID have those 2000 deaths by now.
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Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline PeteS in CA

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #660 on: April 06, 2020, 09:20:49 pm »
1. Some 8 decades ago, chloroquine was a "patented" medicine.

2. Why would creators of a possible "patented" vaccine "push back" against a treatment?

3. The FDA has for a couple of weeks permitted "off-label" use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19. How is allowing its use for treatment "pushing back"?
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If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline DB

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #661 on: April 06, 2020, 09:21:10 pm »
Quote from: txradioguy on April 06, 2020, 09:15:08 pm
The modeling for Ohio according to the IMHE had Ohio suffering almost 2,000 deaths.  It's been reduced to a little over 500.

It will go lower.

But the damage will already have been done.  And no one will be held accountable for what the wild predictions did to not only the society but the economy as well.

That's complicated. What would have happened if no or little action was taken. We don't know. We'll only find out if other countries that get infected take a different route and have different results as a consequence. Italy certainly had a bad result because too many people got it at the same time.

It is too early to make definitive conclusions.
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Offline musiclady

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #662 on: April 06, 2020, 09:24:01 pm »
Quote from: DB on April 06, 2020, 09:15:38 pm
If they hadn't got the virus would they still be alive?

There's a report a little up thread that 20% of those infected with this virus and required medical care suffered heart damage in the process. It's a messy deadly brew...

The numbers in the end will have to be cleaned up/estimated by the researchers.

Probably one of the few accurate indicators will be how much the total death rate changes day to day from before through to after this passes excluding non medical related deaths (murder, accidents, etc). If thousands more die than what is typical over this same time frame from previous years it can be attributed to this virus with some confidence. The death rate from car accidents has probably crashed in comparison...


As with every other post drawing conclusions from partial data, the accuracy of the conclusion is suspect.

We do not know with any certainty that John Doe, with a heart condition who contracted COVID and died, died from his heart condition, the disease, or as you have stated, that the disease affected his heart.

We will not know these things for months. 
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Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

"Sometimes I think the Church would be better off if we would call a moratorium on activity for about six weeks and just wait on God to see what He is waiting to do for us. That's what they did before Pentecost."   - A. W. Tozer

Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #663 on: April 06, 2020, 09:24:32 pm »
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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #664 on: April 06, 2020, 09:31:05 pm »
No Evidence of Rapid Antiviral Clearance or Clinical Benefit with the Combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Infection

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0399077X20300858

Quote
In France, following the results of a clinical study in Marseille, there is considerable interest for  the  use  of  hydroxychloroquine  to  treat  COVID-19  disease,  and  the  French  Ministry  of Health recently allowed the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 disease pending the results of ongoing clinical trials (3). In  their  study,  Gautret  et  al.  reported  a  100%  viral  clearance  in  nasopharyngeal  swabs  in  6 patients after 5 and 6 days of the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (3).

This  rate  of  viral  clearance  was  lower  with  hydroxychloroquine  alone  (57.1%)  and  was  only 12.5% in patients who did not receive hydroxychloroquine (p< 0.001).Such  a  rapid  and  full  viral  clearance  was  quite  unexpected  and  we  wished  to  assess  in  a prospective  study  virologic  and  clinical  outcomes  of  11  consecutive  patients  hospitalized  in our department who received hydroxychloroquine (600 mg/d for 10 days) and azithromycin (500 mg Day 1 and 250 mg days 2 to 5) using the same dosing regimen reported by Gautret et al. (3). There were 7 men and 4 women with a mean age of 58.7 years (range: 20-77), 8 had significant comorbidities  associated  with  poor  outcomes  (obesity:  2;  solid  cancer:  3;  hematological cancer: 2; HIV-infection: 1)

This more high-brow than I can read and understand, but it appears the latest study on hydroxychloroquine shows it only benefits the pocket books of those heavily invested in it.
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Online Bigun

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #665 on: April 06, 2020, 09:36:25 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 06, 2020, 09:07:30 pm
As with most things in life, it's all GIGO.

As I have been saying for weeks!

GIGO still reigns!
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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #666 on: April 06, 2020, 09:49:25 pm »
Quote from: Once-Ler on April 06, 2020, 09:31:05 pm
No Evidence of Rapid Antiviral Clearance or Clinical Benefit with the Combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin in Patients with Severe COVID-19 Infection

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0399077X20300858

This more high-brow than I can read and understand, but it appears the latest study on hydroxychloroquine shows it only benefits the pocket books of those heavily invested in it.

How does one invest in a drug that's been in the Public Domain for decades?  All the big pharma interests are on the side of stopping the use of the old Malaria drug. 
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #667 on: April 06, 2020, 09:57:17 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 06, 2020, 09:49:25 pm
How does one invest in a drug that's been in the Public Domain for decades?  All the big pharma interests are on the side of stopping the use of the old Malaria drug.
By investing in the companies who manufacture it.
President Trump announced at yesterday's press conference (April 5) the U.S. has stockpiled 29 million doses of hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/new-commitments-mylan-and-teva-move-to-supply-tens-millions-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-to

Quote
Following preliminary reports of the drug’s efficacy, shares for Indian drugmakers Cadila, Torrent and Ipca each jumped, the Economic Times reports. Those companies can also produce the medicine.

While drugmakers aim to boost availability of the med, hydroxychloroquine is already in short supply, according to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 10:06:58 pm by Once-Ler »
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Offline PeteS in CA

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #668 on: April 06, 2020, 10:04:14 pm »
https://abc7.com/coronavirus-drug-covid-19-malaria-hydroxychloroquine/6079864/

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/bst/14/1/14_2020.01047/_pdf/-char/en

Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies

Quote
Summary:

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus is spreading rapidly, and scientists are endeavoring to discover drugs for its efficacious treatment in China. Chloroquine phosphate, an old drug for treatment of malaria, is shown to have apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China. The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by COVID-19 issued by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vR1adodKPhWalV9djnerI2x_v1LGgGyhZZxpl0O5r-ZNyDdagqFq1rTCxXBqaeicfxgvypDOqKCZVyV/pub

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0?fbclid=IwAR2JbbZU_Hl7uLjuOTDhrNnmczzyEFvnIhY8QHv9ghY5fYBvX0IsmnhD07w

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

Bahrain, Belgium report coronavirus treatment touted by Trump is working for patients
By Christine Dolan
Last Updated: March 26, 2020 - 11:20am
Quote
The Kingdom of Bahrain's Supreme Council of Health chairman said his country was among the first to use the drug and that its impact has been "profound," according to the Bahrain News Agency.

Dr. Shaikh Mohamed, who leads the National Taskforce for Combating COVID-19, was also quoted by the news agency as saying hydroxychloroquine was administered according to the same regimens as those used in China and South Korea.
...
Meanwhile in Europe, another U.S. ally, Brussels, is reporting similar early success with the same drug and is taking steps to ensure its availability for the sickest coronavirus patients.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996

Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial
Philippe Gautretab, Jean-Christophe Lagierac, Philippe Parolaab, Van Thuan Hoang, Line Meddeb, Morgane Mailhe, Barbara Doudier, Johan Courjon, Valérie Giordanengo, Vera Esteves Vieira, Hervé Tissot Dupont, Stéphane Honoré, Philippe Colson, Eric Chabrière, Bernard La Scola, Jean-Marc Rolain, Philippe Brouqui, Didier Raoult
Available online 20 March 2020, 105949

Quote
Abstract
...
Results
Six patients were asymptomatic, 22 had upper respiratory tract infection symptoms and eight had lower respiratory tract infection symptoms.

Twenty cases were treated in this study and showed a significant reduction of the viral carriage at D6-post inclusion compared to controls, and much lower average carrying duration than reported of untreated patients in the literature. Azithromycin added to hydroxychloroquine was significantly more efficient for virus elimination.

Conclusion
Despite its small sample size our survey shows that hydroxychloroquine treatment is significantly associated with viral load reduction/disappearance in COVID-19 patients and its effect is reinforced by azithromycin.
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If, as anti-Covid-vaxxers claim, https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/robert-f-kennedy-jr-said-the-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-deadliest-vaccine-ever-made-thats-not-true/ , https://gospelnewsnetwork.org/2021/11/23/covid-shots-are-the-deadliest-vaccines-in-medical-history/ , The Vaccine is deadly, where in the US have Pfizer and Moderna hidden the millions of bodies of those who died of "vaccine injury"? Is reality a Big Pharma Shill?

Millions now living should have died. Anti-Covid-Vaxxer ghouls hardest hit.

Offline Hoodat

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #669 on: April 06, 2020, 10:04:45 pm »
Quote from: Once-Ler on April 06, 2020, 09:57:17 pm
By investing in the companies who manufacture it.

Indian companies?
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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #670 on: April 06, 2020, 10:10:08 pm »
Quote from: Once-Ler on April 06, 2020, 09:57:17 pm
By investing in the companies who manufacture it.
President Trump announced at yesterday's press conference (April 5) the U.S. has stockpiled 29 million doses of hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/new-commitments-mylan-and-teva-move-to-supply-tens-millions-hydroxychloroquine-tablets-to

Do you have evidence Trump has financial interest?  The implication you are making is Trump is profiting, and my patience is thin today.
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For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #671 on: April 06, 2020, 10:10:33 pm »
Quote from: Hoodat on April 06, 2020, 10:04:45 pm
Indian companies?
Is investing in foreign business not allowed in the US?  I'm pretty sure I have some foreign companies in my 401K
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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #672 on: April 06, 2020, 10:12:45 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 06, 2020, 10:10:08 pm
Do you have evidence Trump has financial interest?  The implication you are making is Trump is profiting, and my patience is thin today.
I implied nothing of the sort.  Take a deep breath and go read it again.
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Offline Hoodat

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #673 on: April 06, 2020, 10:24:11 pm »
Quote from: Once-Ler on April 06, 2020, 10:10:33 pm
Is investing in foreign business not allowed in the US?  I'm pretty sure I have some foreign companies in my 401K

Do you know of any company that has experienced a sharp rise in stock price because they manufacture generic hydroxychloroquine?  Mylan stock has dropped 17% since Mar 1.  Bayer, Novartis, Amneal, and Teva are literally giving away the drug away, not exactly a profit reaping scheme.  So explain exactly how this is some shallow snake-oil sales attempt to rip off consumers?
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Online mountaineer

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Re: Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion 2
« Reply #674 on: April 06, 2020, 10:37:40 pm »
Frank Fabian  @FrankFabian63
So Hydroxycloroquine costs about 15 cents per dose, usually only 10 pills for full recovery.   Millions of doses have been given to US for free.  But the left thinks DJT is pushing the drug because he has a financial interest?
5:36 PM · Apr 6, 2020
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