Worst-case coronavirus models show massive US toll

[mystery-ak]

Worst-case coronavirus models show massive US toll
By Reid Wilson - 03/13/20 04:07 PM EDT

Statistical models meant to project the potential reach of the coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease suggest more than a million Americans could die if the nation does not take swift action to stop its spread as quickly as possible.

At least three different models built by epidemiology experts suggest that millions of Americans will contract the coronavirus, even in optimistic projections, based on what they know of its spread in China and the United States so far.

One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC's scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

[GtHawk]

I could be wrong but isn't the whole purpose of a worst case scenario?

[Cyber Liberty]

I could be wrong but isn't the whole purpose of a worst case scenario?

No, you have it just right.  It's part of the "hope for the best, prepare for the worst" philosophy.  It's prudent.

[libertybele]

Worst-case coronavirus models show massive US toll
By Reid Wilson - 03/13/20 04:07 PM EDT

Statistical models meant to project the potential reach of the coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease suggest more than a million Americans could die if the nation does not take swift action to stop its spread as quickly as possible.

At least three different models built by epidemiology experts suggest that millions of Americans will contract the coronavirus, even in optimistic projections, based on what they know of its spread in China and the United States so far.

One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC's scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487489-worst-case-coronavirus-models-show-massive-us-toll

Well, back to Glenn Beck's reporting.  The alarming fact is that the mortality rate in Italy is 8%.  Much higher then the mortality rate reported by China.  Here are further stats he reported as of yesterday:

Daily Stats as of 5:30 AM CT (from John's Hopkins)

    Total Confirmed Cases Worldwide: 138,156 (up from 127,388 yesterday)
    Total Confirmed Deaths Worldwide: 5,080 (up from 4,641 yesterday)
    Total Confirmed Recoveries Worldwide: 70,437 (up from 68,327 yesterday)
    132 Countries have confirmed cases (up from 125 yesterday) 4 more have suspected cases
    9% of Active Cases are considered serious (requiring hospitalization), down from 11% yesterday and down from 19% just 2 weeks ago, 3% of patients require ICU
    US has 1,762 Confirmed Cases and 41 Deaths, up from 1,336 cases and 38 confirmed deaths yesterday
    In the US, only Alabama, Alaska, West Virginia and Maine don't have at least 1 case.


Schools Closed in at Least 6 states
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUyGfDJ76g&feature=emb_logo

    "We have 11 Million people, so the math is over 100,00", said Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton.
    The rate of spread and fatality rate prompted her to recommend closing all schools in Ohio by Friday.
    "So that gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."

Dr Anthony Fauci Warns Against Worst Case Scenario Predictions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afKGZ2zVlmU

    "I have my sister in bed, dead, I don't know what to do," Luca Franzese said in a heartbreaking Facebook video, pleading for help.
    "I cannot give her the honor she deserves because the institutions have abandoned me. I contacted everyone, but nobody was able to give me an answer."
    Italy has the 2nd highest total number of cases after China, with 15,113 Cases as of Friday morning, and over 1,016 dead, however instances like Luca Franzese indicate there may be many more dead among those quarantined at home and not yet counted in official numbers.
    Italy's official Case Fatality Rate is over 8% of confirmed cases have resulted in death, the highest official CFR in the world.

Apple Has Reopened All Stores in China https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3075060/apple-reopens-all-its-stores-china-shorter-hours-amid-signs

    Perhaps an indicator that "This too shall pass", Apple has reopened all 42 stores across Mainland China.
    China's regional VP for China reports that all stores have been fully disinfected and all employees will be wearing surgical masks and gloves for the time being.
    Across China, more than 75% of local businesses have reopened, in a hopeful sign that quarantines, isolation and social distancing practices can work to slow the disease to the point where hospitals can manage the number of infections.

https://www.glennbeck.com/blog/coronavirus-update-march-13th

[Cyber Liberty]

Well, back to Glenn Beck's reporting.  The alarming fact is that the mortality rate in Italy is 8%.  Much higher then the mortality rate reported by China.  Here are further stats he reported as of yesterday:

...

https://www.glennbeck.com/blog/coronavirus-update-march-13th

I am reminded about why I stopped watching him, before FNC dumped him:  I grew tired of every day a new crisis, a new lecture to us kids and a new chalkboard.  Being stampeded wears on the soul.  Maybe I'm just being a Pollyanna?

[truth_seeker]

I am reminded about why I stopped watching him, before FNC dumped him:  I grew tired of every day a new crisis, a new lecture to us kids and a new chalkboard.  Being stampeded wears on the soul.  Maybe I'm just being a Pollyanna?

If you want daily updated common sense then consider Scott Adams. He is on Periscope "real time," about 7 AM. Then replay on outube.com

I'm listening to KFI 640 AM big LA station, heard across the West.

(I want news, not  TDS spam. We are in challenging times, and the paradigm could be improved. Move beyond hosting TDS spam)

[Hoodat]

Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC's scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.

"From 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million" is quite a gap.  Perhaps their statistical analysis needs some work.  Meanwhile, 1.4 million will die this year from heart disease, cancer, and accidents.

[libertybele]

"From 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million" is quite a gap.  Perhaps their statistical analysis needs some work.  Meanwhile, 1.4 million will die this year from heart disease, cancer, and accidents.

Gee ... I feel so much better.    Bottom line; no one knows for certain and for the MSM, this is the story of the decade. 

[libertybele]

News story just broke in my county.  There are 5 confirmed cases of the virus. 2 of the 5 have died. So we are looking at a 40% mortality rate here.  I'm not liking the odds. So, yes, people in this county are in panic mode. 

[truth_seeker]

"From 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million" is quite a gap.  Perhaps their statistical analysis needs some work.  Meanwhile, 1.4 million will die this year from heart disease, cancer, and accidents.

We are clearly in the "Fog of War" phase when it comes to throwing around numbers.

Statiscally the "Average Person has One Tit, and One Testicle."

An article can say that 15 percent of 85 year olds will die IF they CATCH the disease.  Or  85 percent of 85 year old will recover IF they Catch the disease.

Such an amazing ANECDOTAL story on now, with Kidney Transplant due to genetic disease. Popular multi-subject on-air personality. Food. Jesus Christ show.

 Neill Saavedra 

https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&sxsrf=ALeKk01WFn8xPKwaTljlRPGJDLOHnzJlmg%3A1584229715955&source=hp&ei=U21tXq3kN4XK-gTW9Ky4Aw&q=Neil+Saavedra&oq=Neil+Saavedra&gs_l=psy-ab.12..0l10.4187.4187..9796...0.0..0.106.106.0j1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.Qi1hfo-3DRs&ved=0ahUKEwjt2dbLk5voAhUFpZ4KHVY6CzcQ4dUDCAc

[Hoodat]

News story just broke in my county.  There are 5 confirmed cases of the virus. 2 of the 5 have died. So we are looking at a 40% mortality rate here.  I'm not liking the odds. So, yes, people in this county are in panic mode.

@libertybele

Were the five cases confirmed today, or were these established cases from before with two dying today?  Also, what are the ages of the five?  I don't know how many people you have in your county, but a sample size of five is woefully inadequate for any normal distribution analysis.

[Smokin Joe]

News story just broke in my county.  There are 5 confirmed cases of the virus. 2 of the 5 have died. So we are looking at a 40% mortality rate here.  I'm not liking the odds. So, yes, people in this county are in panic mode.

Your sample is too small for statistical validity when comparing to a much larger population. Scary, but not valid to predict from. Jus' sayin'.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

If you want daily updated common sense then consider Scott Adams.

The cartoonist?

[Idiot]

The cartoonist?

Thank heavens for the ignore feature here...goodbye!

[roamer_1]

What do the best case coronavirus models show?

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Thank heavens for the ignore feature here...goodbye!

Stay healthy mrpotatohead.

[Hoodat]

What do the best case coronavirus models show?

Best-case models spoil the narrative.

[roamer_1]

Best-case models spoil the narrative.

Ain't that the truth. 

[DB]

"From 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million" is quite a gap.  Perhaps their statistical analysis needs some work.  Meanwhile, 1.4 million will die this year from heart disease, cancer, and accidents.

Garbage in, garbage out.

There's little reliable data to accurately predict much of anything with so far. China's numbers were BS and heavily polluted the stats. If China's numbers were really 8% and they buried that fact they'll publicly claim that their system is superior to the West's which is all that is really important to them.

[Fishrrman]

The toll is certainly going to get higher if they keep bringing it in like this:

[libertybele]

@libertybele

Were the five cases confirmed today, or were these established cases from before with two dying today?  Also, what are the ages of the five?  I don't know how many people you have in your county, but a sample size of five is woefully inadequate for any normal distribution analysis.

No the 5 cases have been confirmed in the past week.  1 died last week and 1 died today.  The two that died are in their mid 70's.   1 traveled outside the U.S. and 1 did not.  Schools are shut down until the end of the month.  On the other coast from here, 25 confirmed new cases today.  South Florida is the epicenter of the state for the virus.

We have a population of appx. 750,000 with about 20% of that population over 60.  The county on the other coast has 1.9 mil.

That is not counting the part time residents that are now here for the winter.  The concern is not only that the virus is community spread, but because of tourist season, our hospitals and medical staff are already at over capacity.

[Hoodat]

@libertybele

Here is some Florida info.

http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/COVID-19/

[jafo2010]

200,000 to 1.7 million dead in the USA from the corona virus is the estimate from the CDC.  Hmmm, their forecasting leaves a whole lot to be desired.

Back during the ebola outbreak of 2014-16 in west Africa, Dr Frieden, head of the CDC forecast 1.2 million deaths from ebola in Africa.  The death toll I believe was 11,323.  Needless to say, a huge gap between the numbers.

Also know that the CDC is loaded with folks that fit in the Never Trump category, almost to the man and woman.  When he appointed Pence as the point man for the corona virus outbreak, I was not even slightly surprised.  I suspect the NIH and FDA as well as other agencies are loaded with TDS folks.  And how many Obama appointees are still there?  You better believe a small army.

I believe there are folks here in the USA that will take every opportunity to bury Trump with this outbreak.  The corrupt media and the Democommies are not letting this crisis go until November 4th.  If I took a wild guess, I would imagine we will end up with 30, - 40,000 deaths from this virus in 2020, about the same level as the flu.  The difference is that this outbreak will largely affect people over 60 with a health condition.

The primary casualty of this outbreak will be Trump.  Everything will be done to blame him for this outbreak.  No stone will remain unturned in the process.  And he is in fact partially to blame.  From day one, Trump has taken credit for the rising stock market.  I cringed when he did this, knowing that if one lives by the sword, one dies by the sword.  If he takes responsibility for the market going up, he sure as hell will get credit should it collapse.  This is a media and Democommie dream come true.  They could not ask for a better catastrophe.

The economy is also the big casualty.  Trump promises help for airlines, cruise lines, etc, but the worst hit will be small business.  Restaurants will really suffer and disappear.  Subsequent to 9/11, I went to Washington, DC on business.  I spent a fair amount of time there prior to 9/11, and had a long list of highly desired restaurants.  When I went to make a reservation, every restaurant I loved was gone.  They closed their doors after 9/11.  My favorite was Tiberio's.  Food to die for.  Gone!

I initially envisioned the DJIA going down to 14, - 15,000 when this all kicked off.  I can easily see it going down to around 8,000.  If the economy is not 80% recovered by November 4th, Trump is toast.  And for all of you that think Clinton isn't salivating with this crisis knowing full well this is a golden opportunity for whoever is a Dem, you better believe the puppetmaster is pulling out all the stops.

Think about it, the choice at convention will be an old white man communist, an old white man that escaped an assisted living facility, or a woman champion of the downtrodden, the would be first woman POTUS.  Believe me, she is in this hunt to take it any way she can.  And let's face it, the position is being handed her on a silver platter.  This election will be for the Dem nominee to lose.

Another casualty will be huge job loss.  Uggh, what a nightmare.

And the latest, China announced this virus may cause male sterility.  I can only imagine this being true and the turmoil.  So, now it affects the elderly, the group to produce the next generation, ending the next generation.  Sounds like the perfect bio weapon.

[Cyber Liberty]

So, now it affects the elderly, the group to produce the next generation, ending the next generation. 

 
Huh?  The group to produce the next generation are in their 20's, not 60's or 70's.  Maybe I'm misreading something.

[jafo2010]

If what the Chinese say is true, that it causes male sterility, there will not be a next generation if a large segment in their 18-50 years of age is sterile.