US is ready to pull the trigger on Afghanistan troop withdrawal if Taliban reduces violence

[mystery-ak]

US is ready to pull the trigger on Afghanistan troop withdrawal if Taliban reduces violence
by Jamie McIntyre
 | February 13, 2020 12:10 PM



With a new version of a “reduction in violence” agreement with the Taliban expected to be announced soon, the Pentagon is poised to begin long-planned force reductions in Afghanistan, once it's clear the deal is working.

In remarks at the Atlantic Council Tuesday, White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien hinted that an agreement was near, saying, “Some good news could be forthcoming,” but also downplayed the idea that the United States would reduce its footprint in Afghanistan right away.

“I don’t think there’s any imminent withdrawal from Afghanistan,” O’Brien said. “There will have to be reduction in violence and meaningful inter-Afghan talks.”

Defense Secretary Mark Esper, in Brussels for a meeting with NATO defense ministers, has been saying for weeks that the United States has several thousand more troops in Afghanistan than it needs to carry out the twin missions of assisting the Afghan military and pursuing terrorist groups, including al Qaeda and the Islamic State.

more
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/us-is-ready-to-pull-the-trigger-on-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal-if-taliban-reduces-violence

[Fishrrman]

Fishrrman's 2 "fearless prediction" scenarios:

#1:
- taliban promises to reduce violence as inducement for Americans to leave.
- taliban actually does reduce violence.
- Americans leave.
- With Americans out, taliban goes back to its old level of violence.

#2:
- Americans just up and leave.

Which of the above two scenarios produces different results...?