Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion

[Sighlass]

Bookmark... yall keep it up... at least if I am gonna be home bound, ya give me something to read.

[roamer_1]

More like 500.

More than that, shutting it off STOPS our ability to innovate. STOPS our ability to respond. It creates a finite pie. In that, MORE will die.

[DB]

No I am not - the predicted numbers of deaths across the course of this, according to worst case, is 200k to 1.7m

But that ain't even it.
They are using confirmed cases, which are cases tested and proved, to come up with the mortality rate. But for every confirmed case there are a myriad of cases that never will be tested or confirmed. Because testing is only done when symptoms present and warrant the testing.

to wit:
Say 100 confirmed cases with 1 death in a given region.
but there are 900 cases that never get logged, because the flu like symptoms were mild enough that the infected never went in to be tested...

The mortality rate is defined as 1 in 100.
But the truth is 1 in 1000.

That is a far cry less virulent and a far more palatable mortality rate... incidentally that rate will likely track with common virus pandemics... Like flu.

At the personal level that is true - you have a better chance (still a matter of chance). But not in the aggregate. Again, we have never controlled a virus in the wild. NEVER. It will run it's course.

I take it you are not a small-businessman. When I was operating, I guarantee you, my businesses could not sustain a 60 day shut-down. Certainly not 90 days. ANY shut=down would have been flirting with bankruptcy. And I know I am not alone in that.

Shutting it off will be devastating on many many levels.

You keep on demanding that this is nothing more than the typical flu. That clearly isn't the case.

If that were true the hospitals in Italy and other countries that have heavy exposure wouldn't be in complete overload doing triage at the front door. The normal flu doesn't do that as well evidenced by many years of repeated cycles.

You think China completely shut down large parts of its economy for more than a month over the flu??? They have far less concern for the lives of people there.

Being wrong here has serious consequences no matter which side you error on. There's some balance between dead people and economic loss that can be achieved beyond letting nature take its course.

[catfish1957]

Bookmark... yall keep it up... at least if I am gonna be home bound, ya give me something to read.

I think we all are going to start to re-learn and enjoy the simple pleasures.

Like right now, as I write, I see 3 deer getting dangerously close to my wife's rose garden,  I'd normally spook 'em, but I think I will give 'em a pass this time.

[Applewood]

I'm one of those old people who is still going out, but these days, I'm rather limited to supermarkets and pharmacies as destinations because almost everything else is closed. 

One thing I have started to do is walk outside.  In my distressed neighborhood, normally, it would be dangerous to walk around even in the daytime, but I've noticed that even the gangstas must be staying home.  The street I live on is normally bustling, particularly with teenagers blaring their car stereos, but the last dew days the street has been eerily quiet.  No traffic either.  I could almost walk down the middle of my street and not be run over. 

Walking is good exercise and among the many recommendations from the "experts" on combating this virus are regular exercise and a healthy diet.  Since the gyms are closed and if you don't have any home gym equipment, why not get outside in the fresh air and sunshine and do your exercise there? 

[Cyber Liberty]

I think we all are going to start to re-learn and enjoy the simple pleasures.

Like right now, as I write, I see 3 deer getting dangerously close to my wife's rose garden,  I'd normally spook 'em, but I think I will give 'em a pass this time.

Roses are tasty to that bunch.  Watch out for the Wrath of the Wife if you let them eat too many....

[DB]

No. Understand:
We have never controlled a virus in the wild. Never.
We have had flu vaccines for a very long time - they do nothing to impact the overall epidemic, and never have.

Come on. That's just plain wrong.

Polio, Tetanus, Measles, Whooping Cough, ever heard of them? There are many others...

You think quarantines never works? The whole point is to slow down the spread so that medical facilities and supplies can keep up with demand instead of doing triage at the front door. Once triage starts all serious medical conditions go through the process. It sucks to be you if you could have survived your heart attack but the resources were overload at the time. Just nature taking its course you say...

[DB]

We should be going what Japan and S. Korea are doing. We are not Italy yet put appear to be follow the same trajectory.  Not good.  And I do not believe the numbers (or anything) coming out of China.

Yep. Chinese and Iranian numbers are useless. They shouldn't be thrown in with other reliable data. It is just pollution.

Japan and S. Korea are very homogeneous countries that are very cautious to begin with and tend to follow directives from their government.

[musiclady]

Come on. That's just plain wrong.

Polio, Tetanus, Measles, Whooping Cough, ever heard of them? There are many others...

You think quarantines never works? The whole point is to slow down the spread so that medical facilities and supplies can keep up with demand instead of doing triage at the front door. Once triage starts all serious medical conditions go through the process. It sucks to be you if you could have survived your heart attack but the resources were overload at the time. Just nature taking its course you say...

How about the VIRUS Smallpox?? And all those quarantined because they, or family members had it, and all those lives SAVED because of it??

[catfish1957]

Roses are tasty to that bunch.  Watch out for the Wrath of the Wife if you let them eat too many....

Ohhhh I know.  After one decided to make the plunge, I shooshed them away. Seems the Deer-a-way stuff doesn't always work. 

OTOH, I get pretty worked up over my Pear Orchard.

About 6 years ago, the local squirrels discoverd my pear trees, and started munching on them, generally a month before ripening.  I tried everything from chemicals, to wind blown devices, to fake owls.....  I tried them all.   What was worst of all the $%$#  critters would take just one bite, and drop the fruit on the ground.  It was driving me crazy, and I looked like a mad man chasing them off.

I finally got fed up and blasted about a dozen of them, and hung their dead carcasses in the tree.   It was pretty stealth with operation, until one of my wife's ultra animal activist type friends saw them, and threatened to turn me into PETA (LMAO).  Rather than confronting the lady, my wife intervened, and kindly asked me to take the rodent flags down. 

Sadly have not had a pear since.   

[DB]

How about the VIRUS Smallpox?? And all those quarantined because they, or family members had it, and all those lives SAVED because of it??

The list is long... I just posted what came quickly to me...

[skeeter]

Yep. Chinese and Iranian numbers are useless. They shouldn't be thrown in with other reliable data. It is just pollution.

Japan and S. Korea are very homogeneous countries that are very cautious to begin with and tend to follow directives from their government.

Countries individual trajectories will track in relation to the sophistication of their medical facilities. Another reason I think the US will have relatively little trouble with this virus.

Asia is doing well with COVID19 because they already had the SARs scare and have the healthcare infrastructure to deal with it.

[DB]

How about the VIRUS Smallpox?? And all those quarantined because they, or family members had it, and all those lives SAVED because of it??

Quarantines obviously do work. Few virus just blow in the wind... I don't follow the denial of basic knowldege.

I can understand an argument of where to draw the line between lives and cost. But to just call this the flu and no big deal and that it just needs to run it course naturally is something else.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

It's not going to happen, and is likely to be reelected despite all his shortcomings (and there are plenty).

@Cyber Liberty
Agreed.  He won't resign, and he'll likely be reelected, but maybe with a rat control Congress.

[roamer_1]

You keep on demanding that this is nothing more than the typical flu. That clearly isn't the case.

No @DB I am demanding that this is nothing more than a typical virus, and I am right.
It's virulence doesn't matter. it's morbidity rate doesn't matter.

AGAIN: We have never ever controlled a virus in the wild.
That record dictates that we will not control this one either.
I do not mean to seem cold. I understand why folks are worried. but facts are facts. And SHUTTING OFF INDUSTRY will not change that. It will only make it worse.

If that were true the hospitals in Italy and other countries that have heavy exposure wouldn't be in complete overload doing triage at the front door. The normal flu doesn't do that as well evidenced by many years of repeated cycles.

A socialist country with socialized medicine and you don't understand it's incompetence?
And we are supposed to mimic that?

You think China completely shut down large parts of its economy for more than a month over the flu??? They have far less concern for the lives of people there.

Again, a socialist country. Top-down hammer. It is no wonder. Better to look at So Korea and Japan, our routine partners and allies, whose medical systems are full of our shared technology.

Being wrong here has serious consequences no matter which side you error on. There's some balance between dead people and economic loss that can be achieved beyond letting nature take its course.

Again, you misunderstand. Nature will take its course. that is inevitable. 
We have never controlled a virus in the wild.

[Cyber Liberty]

Come on. That's just plain wrong.

Polio, Tetanus, Measles, Whooping Cough, ever heard of them? There are many others...

You think quarantines never works? The whole point is to slow down the spread so that medical facilities and supplies can keep up with demand instead of doing triage at the front door. Once triage starts all serious medical conditions go through the process. It sucks to be you if you could have survived your heart attack but the resources were overload at the time. Just nature taking its course you say...

You got it.  The point of the "social distancing" (Geesh, there's a buzz-word for you!) is to slow it down enough to buy time to find treatments and vaccines.

[Hoodat]

Do you find the article convincing @Hoodat ?

It is an opinion piece, not an article.  But I do think that the economic impact from draconian measures we collectively as a nation are taking in the current panic will be far more damaging and far-reaching than the virus itself.  The influx of new money by the Fed has by itself reduced my standard of living.

[DB]

@roamer_1
Alright. We'll just have to disagree and leave it at that.

[Cyber Liberty]

@Cyber Liberty
Agreed.  He won't resign, and he'll likely be reelected, but maybe with a rat control Congress.

And that depends on the actions of the Rats as much as it does on the actions of the President.  No election occurs in a vacuum.

[DB]

It is an opinion piece, not an article.  But I do think that the economic impact from draconian measures we collectively as a nation are taking in the current panic will be far more damaging and far-reaching than the virus itself.  The influx of new money by the Fed has by itself reduced my standard of living.

That it has. It is just bumping things forward about a year with the annual trillion dollar deficits filled with funny money.

[musiclady]

Quarantines obviously do work. Few virus just blow in the wind... I don't follow the denial of basic knowldege.

I can understand an argument of where to draw the line between lives and cost. But to just call this the flu and no big deal and that it just needs to run it course naturally is something else.

That's where I am, @DB.  Not in panic mode, not a lemming following the government blindly.

Just understanding that we are in uncharted territory, that the goal is to slow down the spread of this virus, and that as a Christian and a Conservative, I need to behave responsibly.

Saying this is nothing, and saying "to heck with it, I'm going about my life as I want to" to me is irresponsible.

But maybe that's just me.......

[roamer_1]

Come on. That's just plain wrong.

Polio, Tetanus, Measles, Whooping Cough, ever heard of them? There are many others...

Attrition over many years, not controlling outbreak.

You think quarantines never works? The whole point is to slow down the spread so that medical facilities and supplies can keep up with demand instead of doing triage at the front door. Once triage starts all serious medical conditions go through the process. It sucks to be you if you could have survived your heart attack but the resources were overload at the time. Just nature taking its course you say...

No, quarantine works at the individual level - you lower your risk. But it hardly effects the aggregate.

And as I have said, over and again, massive quarantine,shutting down industry and infrastructure DESTROYS our ability to respond with agility. It creates a finite pie, with finite resources.

Need more beds? Make more damn beds.
But that requires an agile industry and materials, and distribution.

[Bigun]

I have not seen anyone here argue against taking reasonable precautions against the Wuhan Coronavirus but what is reasonable varies from person to person and this currently evolving one size fits all approach is NOT the answer.

I am coronaed out

IMHO Mr. Lloyd Marcus has HIS head screwed on VERY straight!

[Formerly Once-Ler]

And what about others? No concern?

Nursing homes and hospitals should open their doors back to visitors?

I mean, we ARE all going to die, right?? 

Come on. That's just plain wrong.

Polio, Tetanus, Measles, Whooping Cough, ever heard of them? There are many others...

You think quarantines never works? The whole point is to slow down the spread so that medical facilities and supplies can keep up with demand instead of doing triage at the front door. Once triage starts all serious medical conditions go through the process. It sucks to be you if you could have survived your heart attack but the resources were overload at the time. Just nature taking its course you say...

How about the VIRUS Smallpox?? And all those quarantined because they, or family members had it, and all those lives SAVED because of it??

 

[Applewood]

A coronavirus patient refused to quarantine, so deputies are surrounding his house to force him to

A Kentucky novel coronavirus patient checked himself out of the hospital against medical advice. So to prevent him from spreading the virus, officials are surrounding his house to keep him there.

The 53-year-old man in Nelson County refused to quarantine himself after testing positive for Covid-19, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said.

Nelson County officials "forced an isolation" on the man, one of the first 20 confirmed Covid-19 cases in the state.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/us/kentucky-refused-quarantine-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

Ok, this guy has the virus and no one wants him spreading it around.  But is the next step to force all of us still  healthy people to stay home  by whatever means necessary, including force?