Coronavirus, comprehensive and updates discussion

[thackney]

Oh no, mine looked like:



But my little brother's looked like:

[catfish1957]

If your barometer of public health is the Dow, no wonder you're scared. Of the 35 confirmed cases in the US, five have recovered, none have died, and only one is hospitalized.

Let's see, that means each patient is good for how many points on the Dow?

@Smokin Joe

One of my first job out of college had epidemiological  reporting inteactions requirments with the CDC at the State Level.  One old salty guy in Atlanta I sometimes dealt with told me that some of the media genreated mania generated was more of a overall health detriment tham the disease itself.  OF course this was just a few years after the Swine Flu mania debacle of the mid to late 1970's.

My honest opinion?  There are three key things to watch.....

(1) Communicability of the infection vector....   
(2) Mortality rate.  60 or so days in, nothing is giving me any indication that this thing is exceeding the 2-3% Mortaity Rate.  If this continues, this will not be that much more impactful than a normal seasonal flu, which has a 2%, +. or - some change.
(3) And most important, the mutation abilty of the virus.  (1) and (2) now seem managable, in its impact on society.  All bets are off if (3) show change.

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

One of my first job out of college had epidemiological  reporting inteactions requirments with the CDC at the State Level.  One old salty guy in Atlanta I sometimes dealt with told me that some of the media genreated mania generated was more of a overall health detriment tham the disease itself.  OF course this was just a few years after the Swine Flu mania debacle of the mid to  1970's.

My honest opinion?  There are three key things to watch.....

(1) Communicability of the infection vector....   
(2) Mortality rate.  60 or so days in, nothing is giving me any indication that this thing is exceeding the 2-3% Mortaity Rate.  If this continues, this will not be that much more impactful than a normal seasonal flu, which has a 2%
(3) And most important, the mutation abilty of the virus.  (1) and (2) now seem managable, in its impact on society.  All bets are off if (3) show change.

I agree. Outside China the mortality rate is at 1.1% of known cases.
Those who were infected  but generally asymptomatic may not have been included, simply because their symptoms may have been mild enough that they were never tested. (Some people get brutal colds, others seem to not ever get one, and that may be an unseen factor in this disease.)
The mention of SARS and MERS certainly has the fear factor enhanced, but this virus is neither, or the mortality rates would be considerably higher. 

[Axeslinger]

@Smokin Joe

One of my first job out of college had epidemiological  reporting inteactions requirments with the CDC at the State Level.  One old salty guy in Atlanta I sometimes dealt with told me that some of the media genreated mania generated was more of a overall health detriment tham the disease itself.  OF course this was just a few years after the Swine Flu mania debacle of the mid to late 1970's.

My honest opinion?  There are three key things to watch.....

(1) Communicability of the infection vector....   
(2) Mortality rate.  60 or so days in, nothing is giving me any indication that this thing is exceeding the 2-3% Mortaity Rate.  If this continues, this will not be that much more impactful than a normal seasonal flu, which has a 2%, +. or - some change.
(3) And most important, the mutation abilty of the virus.  (1) and (2) now seem managable, in its impact on society.  All bets are off if (3) show change.

@catfish1957
Only caveat I’ll add to your number 2 is this. From what I’ve read, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 which killed more than 20million people ALSO had a mortality rate of about 2.5%

[skeeter]

@Smokin Joe

One of my first job out of college had epidemiological  reporting inteactions requirments with the CDC at the State Level.  One old salty guy in Atlanta I sometimes dealt with told me that some of the media genreated mania generated was more of a overall health detriment tham the disease itself.  OF course this was just a few years after the Swine Flu mania debacle of the mid to late 1970's.

My honest opinion?  There are three key things to watch.....

(1) Communicability of the infection vector....   
(2) Mortality rate.  60 or so days in, nothing is giving me any indication that this thing is exceeding the 2-3% Mortaity Rate.  If this continues, this will not be that much more impactful than a normal seasonal flu, which has a 2%, +. or - some change.
(3) And most important, the mutation abilty of the virus.  (1) and (2) now seem managable, in its impact on society.  All bets are off if (3) show change.

That is encouraging.

But why do you suppose China has virtually turned off its economy to deal with the virus? That would seem to imply Covid19 is more serious than the average flu.

[Smokin Joe]

@catfish1957
Only caveat I’ll add to your number 2 is this. From what I’ve read, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 which killed more than 20million people ALSO had a mortality rate of about 2.5%

We don't know the mortality rate of this virus, really. China's stats aren't trustworthy. Confirmed cases outside of China have been running 1.1% so far.

[mystery-ak]

'Incoherent': Top WHO official rips Trump's 'ignorant' coronavirus news conference
by Dominick Mastrangelo
 | February 27, 2020 09:26 AM



A top official at the World Health Organization said President Trump's news conference on the American response to the COVID-19 virus made little sense.

"I found most of what he said a little incoherent," Ezekiel Emanuel, special adviser to the director-general of the World Health Organization, said Wednesday on MSNBC's Hardball. "You know, [Trump's] a guy that admitted that he’s surprised that 25,000 to 69,000 people each year die of the flu. That just tells you how little he actually knows about public health and about the health of the American public."

Emanuel said Trump's news conference revealed how "ignorant" he is about the global outbreak that has infected tens of thousands and led to the deaths of more than 2,000 people around the world.

There have been 60 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the United States so far.

more
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/incoherent-top-who-official-rips-trumps-ignorant-coronavirus-news-conference

[catfish1957]

That is encouraging.

But why do you suppose China has virtually turned off its economy to deal with the virus? That would seem to imply Covid19 is more serious than the average flu.

That initially concerned me too.  But remember the virus vector has about a 14 day life cycle.  Introduction to end result.  We are now in at least 2 cycles of the virus outside of China.  Yes too early to make a 100% evaluation of impact, but we will have a much better handle of lethality in about 2 weeks. What I am not hearing, and am most concerned about is what is the abiltiy to this virus to mutate.  In our case we have stocked up much like we would for a hurricane. (A couple of weeks of food, water) Being 60+, no need to increase our chance of infection.

Like myself, nation still needs to make necessary calm zero-hysteria contingent preparations.  Better safe than sorry. But I am feeling a little better of late around overall impact.

[catfish1957]

@catfish1957
Only caveat I’ll add to your number 2 is this. From what I’ve read, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 which killed more than 20million people ALSO had a mortality rate of about 2.5%

@Axeslinger

This is one that genealogy really came in handy for me.  I have always felt that 2.5% mortaility was substantially lower than actual.  1918, was well before public health montioring systems and before when death certificates were 100% institutionalized.  If you look at the overall 1918 deaths in country, versus say what was confirmed on a d/c.  Many old time doctors early on, often called it a pneumonia.  Back then, there obviously was no testing   I think it would show that the disease was well undereported, especially early on.

Another dynamic which was so much different then than now, is the mobility of the populus.  People today, travel so much more than then. The Flu epidemic strangly often would wipe out a significant chunk of town, while other geopgraphic locations may not have recorded a case.  That also impact the percieved mortality rate.

[mystery-ak]

Japan to close schools nationwide to control spread of coronavirus
https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/japan-to-close-schools-nationwide-to-control-spread-of-virus/

[catfish1957]

'Incoherent': Top WHO official rips Trump's 'ignorant' coronavirus news conference
by Dominick Mastrangelo
 | February 27, 2020 09:26 AM

Typical MSNBC.....   Exploiting a health crisis for left wing political gain.  Hope there is a nice little corner in hell for these bastards.

[catfish1957]

Japan to close schools nationwide to control spread of coronavirus
https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/japan-to-close-schools-nationwide-to-control-spread-of-virus/

As technologially savy as the Japanese are, I am surprised they don't have some form of contingent School teleconfererncing

[skeeter]

Typical MSNBC.....   Exploiting a health crisis for left wing political gain.  Hope there is a nice little corner in hell for these bastards.

You and I both. I pray the rest of the public is perceptive enough to find them as repellent as they should.

[Smokin Joe]

Typical MSNBC.....   Exploiting a health crisis for left wing political gain.  Hope there is a nice little corner in hell for these bastards.

If Trump is "ignorant" then he wasn't briefed. We (taxpayers) shell out for a small army of experts who can do just that. But the CDC lady is Rosenstein's sister. No "deep state" action going on here, folks...

I think Hell's gonna need a bigger corner...

[aligncare]

It’s time to panic, folks. A woman in Northern California has the flu! Run away!

[catfish1957]

We don't know the mortality rate of this virus, really. China's stats aren't trustworthy. Confirmed cases outside of China have been running 1.1% so far.

@Smokin Joe

What bothers me most Joe, is that at some point on the horizon, we are going to see a perfect storm of where the lethality, mutability, and communicability that DOES become an international infrastruture crisis.  That concern was there with H5N1.  The concern was strong, that in my role as emergency manager at my plant, we were company wide particpant of a such a comprehenive intricate contingency plan, we had it forumulated and implemented to the point of a flip of a light switch.  Very scary stuff, which included quantantined plant workers and maintnenance, pre-sterilized drops of provisions, on site physicians, etc.

Thankfully, H5N1 (Bird Flu) never panned out.

[Cyber Liberty]

"I found most of what he said a little incoherent," Ezekiel Emanuel, special adviser to the director-general of the World Health Organization, said Wednesday on MSNBC's Hardball. "You know, [Trump's] a guy that admitted that he’s surprised that 25,000 to 69,000 people each year die of the flu. That just tells you how little he actually knows about public health and about the health of the American public."

If the name  Ezekiel Emanuel sounds familiar, it should.  From Wiki:

Ezekiel Jonathan "Zeke" Emanuel (born September 6, 1957) is an American oncologist and bioethicist[2] and senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. He is the current Vice Provost for Global Initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania and chair of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy.

...

His two younger brothers are former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel and Hollywood-based talent agent Ari Emanuel.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezekiel_Emanuel

He's not one to ever let a crisis go to waste.

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

What bothers me most Joe, is that at some point on the horizon, we are going to see a perfect storm of where the lethality, mutability, and communicability that DOES become an international infrastruture crisis.  That concern was there with H5N1.  The concern was strong, that in my role as emergency manager at my plant, we were company wide particpant of a such a comprehenive intricate contingency plan, we had it forumulated and implemented to the point of a light switch.  Very scary stuff, which included quantantined plant workers and maintnenance, pre-sterilized drops of provisions, on site physicians, etc.

Thankfully, H5N1 (Bird Flu) never panned out.

I was watching that one, too.
It seems that somewhere along the line, virii sacrifice lethality for communicability. (I guess making it on the margin vs volume exists in the pathogen world, too.) Some day, there will likely be a superbug that either develops on its own or is developed for warfare that will combine those characteristics of being highly communicable and highly lethal, but such would be something no government in their right mind would want to deploy--nor store where their population was vulnerable.

[catfish1957]

If the name  Ezekiel Emanuel sounds familiar, it should.  From Wiki:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezekiel_Emanuel

He's not one to ever let a crisis go to waste.

"American oncologist and bioethicist[2]"

and that makes him an expert on epidemiological matters?  And the degree to go on TV to come across as an expert on such matters?

AMA needs to sanction him, fine him, or whatever they need to do to make him STFU.

[Idiot]

It appears that Trump's news conference didn't lessen fears as I see the DOW plummeting again today. 

I asked a stock trader buddy several years back as to what had caused the market to drop a huge amount on a particular day and his comment was, "a cockroach tripped over a cigarette butt". lololol  It takes very little to instill fear into the market.  Let's just pray this is a HUGE overreaction.

[Gefn]

It appears that Trump's news conference didn't lessen fears as I see the DOW plummeting again today. 

I asked a stock trader buddy several years back as to what had caused the market to drop a huge amount on a particular day and his comment was, "a cockroach tripped over a cigarette butt". lololol  It takes very little to instill fear into the market.  Let's just pray this is a HUGE overreaction.

I’m really worried. This is upsetting. I hope it corrects itself soon.

[catfish1957]

I’m really worried. This is upsetting. I hope it corrects itself soon.

Not me.  One of my favorite quotes in the world of investing is .....    "run in when everyone else is running out panicking"

Worked well for me in '87, '01, and '09.  I still want about a 5-8% correction before I start getting giddy.

[Cyber Liberty]

I’m really worried. This is upsetting. I hope it corrects itself soon.

We're already up 500 from the session low.

[catfish1957]

We're already up 500 from the session low.

Still can't beleive the 30 year treasuries touched 1.75% this morning.  Yuck.

[TomSea]

One official and now, the female VP of Iran, have the virus:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/02/27/Iranian-Vice-President-Masoumeh-Ebtekar-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-Report.html

Moscow, rounding up strays, killing rats.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/27/moscow-rounds-up-stray-animals-kills-rats-over-coronavirus-fears-a69436

That doesn't sound good. I heard dogs would not transfer the disease, terrifying for the critters.

You have to take precautions,

Coronavirus: in South Korea, mounting anger, rumours over Shincheonji church as cases rise

    The spike in Covid-19 cases has heightened interest in the controversial church, which accounts for over half of the country’s infections
    Anger and mistrust reached a peak when an online post detailed its alleged plans to infiltrate traditional churches to spread the virus

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3052550/south-korea-mounting-anger-rumours-over-shincheonji

That would be evil if they did this.

Also, per going to Mecca, a lot of people not being let in by Saudi Arabia:

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/02/27/Saudi-Arabia-suspends-entry-for-Umrah-pilgrimage-due-to-coronavirus.html

In fact, pilgrimages may have stopped as of now.

Police officers visit remote areas in Altay, China's Xinjiang region, to raise the coronavirus awareness [AFP]
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/trump-ready-coronavirus-live-updates-200226235731205.html