ESTIMATING THE SITUATION: INTUITION, DELIBERATION, OR A THIRD WAY?
By Kristan Wheaton and Kelly Morningstar November 14, 2019
To delay action in an emergency because of insufficient information shows a lack of energetic leadership and may result in lost opportunities. The commander must take calculated risks.
The estimate of the situation has been a fixture in U.S. Army operation orders since 1909, with roots dating back to the late 19th century and Dennis Hart Mahan. Over the last 100 years, however, the estimate process has been subject to a nearly constant doctrinal battle between those seeking to hone command intuition and those seeking a more scientifically based staff decision-making process. Today, the rapidly evolving nature of the battlefield, coupled with recent research in judgment and decision-making, require a reconsideration of the estimate of the situation, not of the intent writ large but of the details of how these estimates are derived. This reconsideration is required especially given new research on the skills and approaches used for developing strategic estimates.
https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/estimating-the-situation/
