Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for October 28, 2019

[Elderberry]

Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog 10/28/2019

Biden is up, Ryan is out, a poll has Buttigieg second in Iowa, and the Yang Gang takes on Bernie Bros. It’s your Democratic Presidential clown car update!

Polls

Post and Courier (South Carolina): Biden 30, Warren 19, Sanders 13, Harris 11, Buttigieg 9, Steyer 5, Yang 4, Booker 3, Gabbard 3, Klobuchar 3, Bennet 1, O’Rourke 1.

Quinnipiac: Warren 28, Biden 21, Sanders 15, Buttigieg 10, Harris 5, Klobuchar 3, O’Rourke 1, Booker 1, Castro 1, Yang 1, Steyer 1.

Civiqs/ISU (Iowa): Warren 28, Buttigieg 20, Sanders 18, Biden 12, Klobuchar 4, Harris 3, Steyer 3, Gabbard 2, Yang 2, Booker 1, O’Rourke 1, Bennet 1. That’s the first time Buttigieg has placed ahead of Biden in any poll, anywhere, ever. Could be an outlier (sample size of 598), or it could show his spending is finally having an effect there. My guess is some of each.

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Pundits, etc.

Nine candidates have made the November debates: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Steyer, Yang, Booker, Klobuchar.
538 debates whether Iowa and new Hampshire matter as much as they used to:

    Winning Iowa or New Hampshire will likely be critical for someone in the 2020 Democratic primary, too, especially if the same candidate wins both states. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is currently in the lead in both places, according to a FiveThirtyEight average of polls in Iowa and New Hampshire since the third Democratic debate in September — although she barely leads in Iowa. She has a narrow 1-point lead over Biden in Iowa and a 4-point edge in New Hampshire, according to our analysis. (RealClearPolitics’s average puts Warren roughly 3 points ahead of Biden in New Hampshire and less than a point behind Biden in Iowa.) But in both states, we’re only talking about a few points separating the top two candidates, so to be clear, the race is still incredibly tight.

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Now on to the clown car itself:

•  Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets a PBS interview.
•  Former Vice President Joe Biden: In. Twitter. Facebook. His campaign gets a long profile in New York:

Inevitably, he arrives late, by SUV or van. The former vice-president is thin and, yes, he’s old. He dresses neatly and always in blue. Staff envelop him. There’s the body man, the advance man, the videographer, the photographer, the digital director, the traveling chief of staff, the traveling press secretary, the local press secretary, the adviser, the other adviser, the adviser’s adviser, the surrogate, the other surrogate, and the bodyguard.

Much, much more : https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=42320

[PeteS in CA]

The way the under-5%ers are all over the map in the various polls suggest to me that the poll samples are too small to say much about that group.

[Elderberry]

The way the under-5%ers are all over the map in the various polls suggest to me that the poll samples are too small to say much about that group.

It is expected that the "under-5%ers" are all over the map as their numbers are so close to the margin of error of the polls.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

[Cyber Liberty]

The way the under-5%ers are all over the map in the various polls suggest to me that the poll samples are too small to say much about that group.

I would think a sample size would have to be enormous to accurately resolve numbers <5%.  Many times 1,000.  This is just statistical noise.