Putting aside the obvious difficulty of securing the nomination, yes, I believe that Sanford has a better chance of retaining the White House against the current crop of Dems running on their platform of TDS and socialism. The reason is simple - the best way to defeat the socialist tide is to hone the kind of effective message that cannot now be heard above the media's obsession with Trump-the-mad-king.
In a vacuum, that is probably correct. But we're not in a vacuum. I also don't think you can put aside the difficulty of securing the nomination. That alone is basically a 0% chance, so you'd have to ask yourself what are the likely side effects of a contested nomination, likely including a lot of very harsh criticism from another Republican. Do you believe that would help or hurt Trump's chances in the general election should he (overwhelmingly likely) win the nomination?
Also, I thought (and I apologize if I'm misremembering) that you previously acknowledged any Republican running against Trump would either be doomed to lose the nomination, or even if successful, would split the party and guarantee a Democrat victory in the general election. So, your hope was that someone like McConnell would convince Trump not to run, and then someone like Haley would step forward with Trump's endorsement. But now, you seem to be supporting an antagonistic, contested run against Trump by another Republican. That seems like something of a 180 to me. Or am I wrong about that? I believe the initial point was correct -- that if by some miracle a primary challenge succeeded, the mass of Trump supporters would be so alienated that 2020 would be a massive landslide up and down the ticket.
Do you have issues with Sanford's conservative credentials, or are you suggesting that a conservative has no chance of winning and we instead need a big-government populist/demagogue?
Leaving aside my general opposition to a primary challenge that I described above, Sanford in particular is a terrible candidate. Policy wise, I really like him. But the whole Appalachian Trail/cheat on your wife with foreign-born mistress/lie about your location and actually be out of the country and unreachable
while governor is a political death sentence. I think Republican women might even turn on him for that series of actions.
Of course, pro-Democrat media rags like the Washington Post will tout his credentials as a legitimate challenger to Trump, and watch with glee if by miracle he's successful and the party splinters. They'd then turn on him in a heartbeat and absolutely destroy him in the general election.
He might actually be the most unelectable guy we could possibly run.
@Jazzhead