Your crystal ball needs a good scrubbin'. It's covered in swamp mud.
It's not my crystal ball,
@Right_in_Virginia It is the crystal ball offered by poll
after poll
after poll
after poll
after poll
after poll.
It doesn't matter the methodology of the poll or the purported agenda of the pollster - they all convey the message that Trump is likely to lose because he cannot or will not expand his appeal beyond his base.
Look to history - incumbent Presidents presiding over healthy economies aren't losing in poll after poll after poll. Incumbant Presidents whose nation is at peace aren't losing in poll after poll after poll. Trump's brand of leadership is turning off even many of those who voted for him last time. Back then he had one big arrow in his quiver - he wasn't Hillary. Next year, whoever the Dem nominee is will have the same arrow in her quiver - she's not Trump.
It is political malpractice to ignore the obvious. It is political idiocy to respond to evidence by trashing the messenger. If folks want to stick their heads on the sand like myopic ostriches, so be it. All I can do is point out that the collective weight of all these polls, with nary an outlier, is damning.
We need an alternative, and the sooner one emerges, the better.