Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update for August 26, 2019

[Elderberry]

Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog 8/26/2019

Inslee and Moulton are Out, Sanders wants to bring U.S. Postal Service efficiency to powering your house and car, and there’s a rumor Grandma Death may arise from her crypt. It’s your Democratic Presidential clown car update!

Polls
Economist/YouGov (page 79): Biden 22, Sanders 19, Warren 17, Harris 8, Buttigieg 7, O’Rourke 3, Booker 2, Gabbard 2, Bullock 1, Castro 1, de Blasio 1, Gillibrand 1, Inslee 1, Yang 1.
SSRS: Biden 29, Sanders 15, Warren 14, Buttigieg 5, Harris 5, O’Rourke 3, Booker 2, Castro 2, Gabbard 2, Bullock 1, Klobuchar 1, Ryan 1, Steyer 1, Yang 1.
Gravis (Nevada): Biden 25, Warren 15, Sanders 10, Uncertain 9, Harris 9, Steyer 6, Buttigieg 5, Booker 3. Yang 2, Klobuchar 2, Gabbard 2, Bennett 2, de Blasio 2, Gillibrand 1, Delaney 1, Castro 1, Williamson 1, Bullock 1, Ryan 1, Inslee 1.
Real Clear Politics
538 polls
Election betting markets

Pundits, etc.
Debates update:

    Ten have already hit that threshold: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang.

    Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard are close. The outlook is currently pretty grim for Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Ryan, and Marianne Williamson.

    Gabbard’s campaign is complaining that the DNC has a limited list of “certified polls,” and she seems to have a point; her campaign counted 26 polls that had her at or above 2 percent, and some surveys, like ones commissioned by the Boston Globe and the Charleston Post and Courier, aren’t on the DNC’s “certified” list.

    Among the most recent polls, the Economist/YouGov national poll has her at 2 percent, the CNN national poll has her at 2 percent, the Gravis poll of Nevada Democrats puts her at 2 percent, the Politico/Morning Consult national poll has her at 1 percent and the Fox News national poll has her at 1 percent.

    That having been said . . . the threshold is 2 percent, people. If consistently getting 2 percent or more of members of your party to make you their first choice is too difficult . . . well, the presidency doesn’t have many easy days. You can picture some of the asterisk candidates muttering that the DNC rules have reduced the debate qualification process to a popularity contest. Well, yeah. A presidential primary is a competition to see who can get the most people to make a candidate their first choice. If Democrats really feel like Gabbard is getting screwed by an unfairly high threshold, they can inundate the DNC with messages of objection. But as is, when YouGov, or CNN, or Gravis, or Morning Consult or Fox News come calling, not enough Democrats are saying that their first choice is Tulsi Gabbard. The Hawaii congresswoman is a heck of a debater who basically vivisected Kamala Harris’s record as prosecutor in the second debate. But for whatever reason, that hasn’t translated into large numbers of Democrats saying, “yes, she’s my first choice.”

The Last Days of the Other 1 Percent:

    For a handful of Democratic candidates stuck at 1 percent (or lower) in the polls, a Wednesday afternoon in the dog days of August could be the moment when their lifelong dream of the presidency dies a quiet death.

More: https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=41709