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Author Topic: Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007  (Read 847 times)

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Offline kevindavis007

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Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007
« on: August 05, 2019, 04:42:08 pm »

The latest eruption in the U.S.-China trade dispute pushed a widely watched Treasury-market recession indicator to the highest alert since 2007.

Rates on 10-year notes sank to 1.74% on Monday, close to completely erasing the surge that followed President Donald Trump’s 2016 election. In early trading, they fetched as much as 32 basis points less than three-month bills, the most extreme yield-curve inversion since just before the 2008 crisis.

The move follows reports that China is responding to the U.S. president’s threat of more tariffs by allowing the yuan to fall and halting imports of U.S. agricultural products. Many major investors expect this slide in 10-year yields to continue given the risk this creates for markets

Read More: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/yield-curve-blares-loudest-u-s-recession-warning-since-2007

But trade wars are good for the economy.
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Offline libertybele

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Re: Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2019, 11:44:34 pm »
Might be a little early to call this one ... but this isn't just your regular market cycle reaction --

The Feds just made a call to lower interest rates and now the yield curve is indicating recession.  Read an article (which I posted in another post) stating that the extremely rich are selling stocks in order to buy real estate -- IMHO usually indicative of a recession.  People lose jobs during a recession and some go through foreclosures and the rich get richer by buying up real estate.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-superrich-are-selling-stocks-buying-properties-and-keeping-cash-ready-2019-08-05?mod=MW_home_top_stories
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Offline dfwgator

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Re: Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2019, 12:00:07 am »
Rats are going to talk down the economy, just as they always accuse Republicans of doing.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2019, 12:24:28 am »
Knew this was coming for awhile.  Fundementals just don't support a 26K Dow.  Add a bloody trade war....   well you get the picture.

Locked up some AA and better Corp Bonds yielding better well over 3% recently. 

In 2 or 3 years these are going to look good.
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Offline rustynail

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Re: Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007
« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2019, 12:30:25 am »
Trumptowns everywhere.   Hard Times, Daddy.
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Offline EdJames

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Re: Yield Curve Blares Loudest U.S. Recession Warning Since 2007
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2019, 12:33:59 am »
Quote from: rustynail on August 06, 2019, 12:30:25 am
Trumptowns everywhere.   Hard Times, Daddy.

Buddy, can you spare a nickel?
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