SCOTUSblog by Adam Feldman 6/19/2019
The October 2018 Supreme Court term has taken many twists and turns, and the court still has 20 decisions to release in its last week and a half of work before the summer recess. Much may change between now and then, but with 55 cases already decided, we have unique and surprising patterns of decision-making among the justices. This is most apparent in the court’s 5-4 (or 5-3) decisions, in which one vote could shift a decision in a different direction. The court’s 5-3 and 5-4 decisions this term include Madison v. Alabama, Stokeling v. U.S., Nielsen v. Preap, Lamps Plus Inc. v. Varela, Washington State Department of Licensing v. Cougar Den Inc., Bucklew v. Precythe, Apple Inc. v. Pepper, Herrera v. Wyoming, Franchise Tax Board of California v. Hyatt, Home Depot U.S.A. Inc. v. Jackson, Manhattan Community Access Corp. v. Halleck, Mont v. U.S. and Virginia House of Delegates v. Bethune-Hill. So far, these decisions and the court’s majority compositions in general have not gone as many predicted.
The justices have aligned in eight different majority compositions in these 13 decisions. The only alignment that has voted together in more than two decisions is the one composed of the five more conservative justices – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh.
When examined another way, however, the different compositions suggest a new method for the liberal justices whereby they seek a fifth vote among the conservative justices to secure a 5-4 majority. Six of these compositions included all four of the more liberal justices in the majority and a swing vote from one the more conservative justices.
Although the tactics for securing this fifth vote may have led the liberals to account for more diverse views in the majority opinions, they have also led to a higher rate of success in these cases than many expected prior to the term. This is evident below as we break down the 5-3 and 5-4 ideological compositions for these 13 decisions.
Four different conservative justices voted along with the liberals in six different compositions, and the only conservative who has yet to vote along with the four liberals in a five-justice majority, this term or ever, is Alito.
More:
https://www.scotusblog.com/2019/06/empirical-scotus-wild-ride-of-a-term-with-20-decisions-still-to-go/
