The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority

[corbe]

The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority

By Max Greenwood - 03/15/19 06:00 AM EDT   

Republicans are eyeing a path to the House majority that takes them through Trump country.

The GOP has already put 55 districts held by Democrats on its target list for 2020. But Republican hopes are highest in the 31 districts that President Trump carried in 2016. That includes 13 districts where the real estate mogul bested Hillary Clinton by more than 6 points.

Meanwhile, only three GOP lawmakers hold districts where Clinton won in 2016 — Reps. Will Hurd (Texas), John Katko (N.Y.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.).

Those lawmakers are among 33 Republicans that Democrats are hoping to oust in 2020 as the party looks to expand its nascent House majority.

Here’s a look at where next year’s battles for the House will be fought:

Trump-won districts held by Democrats

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https://thehill.com/homenews/house/434113-the-31-trump-districts-that-will-determine-the-next-house-majority

[truth_seeker]

the OC  in CA has long been a Republican stronghold. Yet in Nov. 2018 theGOP lost EVERY House seat.

My Rep, Dana R, took the position that home sellers should be able tto refuse selling to homosexuals.

No doubt he lost support over this alone. The Real Estate organization withdrew the endorsement they had given him, and other Republicans, for over 30 years.

Thiis is no longer the 1850s. Like it or not, we have "fair housing" laws, starting in the 1860s and again in the 1950s and 1960s.


As a CA licensed RE Broker since 1990, I have had to know I could not "discriminate," for race, religion, disability, etc. Like it or not, sexual orientation now falls into that category.


That is how Dana R. lost his seat, in part. Totally unnecessary.
 

[Mesaclone]

the OC  in CA has long been a Republican stronghold. Yet in Nov. 2018 theGOP lost EVERY House seat.

My Rep, Dana R, took the position that home sellers should be able tto refuse selling to homosexuals.

No doubt he lost support over this alone. The Real Estate organization withdrew the endorsement they had given him, and other Republicans, for over 30 years.

Thiis is no longer the 1850s. Like it or not, we have "fair housing" laws, starting in the 1860s and again in the 1950s and 1960s.


As a CA licensed RE Broker since 1990, I have had to know I could not "discriminate," for race, religion, disability, etc. Like it or not, sexual orientation now falls into that category.


That is how Dana R. lost his seat, in part. Totally unnecessary.

The GOP has always been prone to that kind of "foot-shooting" stupidity. The Buckley rule...nominate the most conservative candidate "who can actually win", must be followed if we want to win back the House. Running dinosaurs who think its OK to refuse selling a house to someone because they are gay is idiocy.

[Smokin Joe]

The GOP has always been prone to that kind of "foot-shooting" stupidity. The Buckley rule...nominate the most conservative candidate "who can actually win", must be followed if we want to win back the House. Running dinosaurs who think its OK to refuse selling a house to someone because they are gay is idiocy.

Well, they can believe that, even effectively and surreptitiously practice that, but they can't say it.

[Free Vulcan]

IA-01

Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Iowa) ousted two-term former Rep. Rod Blum (R-Iowa) in this northeast Iowa district in November — one of two Iowa districts that Democrats managed to flip in 2018, along with the state’s 3rd District. Still, Trump won there by about 3.5 points two years earlier.

IA-02

Rep. Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa) secured a seventh term in the House last year, beating back a challenge from Republican Christopher Peters. Trump won his southeastern Iowa district two years earlier by a roughly 4-point margin.

IA-03

Rep. Cindy Axne’s (D-Iowa) win over former Rep. David Young (R-Iowa) gave Democrats more good news in the Hawkeye State; it was among key wins there that handed the party three spots in Iowa’s four-member House delegation. Trump won the district in 2016 by 3.5 points.

IA-1 and 3 are very even and in a state of flux. Victories on both sides have been razor thin the last few years. Good superstar Republicans might win these, especially the 1st because numbers are more favorable, and the Iowa GOP generally has a good bench.

IA-2 is another story. Loebsack is very entrenched, and I know this well because it's my district and I was on a number of the campaigns trying to beat him.

It will take a very special and dynamic candidate to get him out, one who can decisively win Scott county (the Iowa side of the Quad Cities) and kill it in the rural areas and small towns.

I don't know if there's anyone in the district that can do that right now. They are all too young, too old, or just ain't congressional material.