That 2nd round between Pederson and Guerrero was epic.
Having said that, what do you think of the current format for the Home Run Derby? I think on the whole it's pretty entertaining, but there's a definite advantage to whoever goes second. I liked the previous "10 misses and you're out" format for a more even playing field.
@Polly Ticks If we must have the Home Run Derby, I agree with you about the former ten-out format.
Otherwise, I'm even more in favour of doing away with the Home Run Derby entirely. Oh, sure, it's great fun. But it's also a) little more than hyped and glorified batting practise; and, b) bearing at least a 50-50 chance that those who win will have
lesser second halves of seasons than they did first. I did an analysis of it in March and discovered that, among 34 Home Run Derby champions including six Hall of Famers (in order of wins: Andre Dawson, Ryne Sandberg, Cal Ripken, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr. twice, and Vladimir Guerrero Sr.), exactly one shy of half of them had lesser second halves of seasons than first. (Anomaly: Eric Davis, in the season he won the Derby, had
exactly the same OPS before the All-Star break as he did after it.)
Aaron Judge declined to participate in this year's Derby because he feared either being injured while participating or incurring an injury after it. It's not an illegitimate fear, but I couldn't find anything to make an overwhelming case for that happening to Derby winners. But when he said concurrently that the Derby impacts a player's second half, I saw a stronger case for that even if it's only been 50-50 so far. Judge himself is evidence for that: he won the 2017 Derby (and put one helluva show on while he was at it), but his regular season second half was pronouncedly less than his first half was. His first half: 1.139 OPS; 208 total bases; his second half: .939 OPS; 132 total bases. And his second half was still a second half a lot of players would kill to deliver.
Sure, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. put one helluva show on Monday night, whether he competed against Joc Pederson or Pete Alonso. (The best line about the Derby anywhere turned up on Twitter: "Joc Pederson's going after that $1 million like he's behind in his rent.") But two things to remember:
* He actually isn't an All-Star; talented as he is, his rookie season is one of making more adjustments to major league competition than was thought he'd need after he overwhelmed in the minors.
* The Home Run Derby may be great entertainment, but it isn't baseball. Say what you will about how the All-Star teams are composed and arranged, but at least the All-Star Game
is baseball.
Pete Alonso, who did win the Derby, came into the All-Star break with a fat case as the National League's Rookie of the Year in the making: he's broken his team's record for homers in a season by a rookie (his 30 eclipsed Darryl Strawberry's 26 in 1983) and tied his team's record for most bombs before the All-Star break (his 30 equal Dave Kingman's 30 in 1976); and, he has a) a 1.006 OPS and a 166 OPS+ (he's sixth in the Show in the former and fourth in the latter) and b) tied with Cody Bellinger for second in the Show with his 30 bombs. It's not that his Mets are necessarily going anywhere this year (that team is riddled with issues not even a sliver of his making), but it's to see whether Alonso will have a second half equal to his first or close enough to it.
By contrast, it should be interesting to see the second half of the Astros' Alex Bregman. He was eliminated in the Derby's first round. when Joc Pederson out-homered him 21-16. But Bregman had the second-best line of the night when he was asked about the semi-final showdown between Pederson and Guerrero that went to a pair of swing-offs before Guerrero took it to set up his showdown with Alonso:
I couldn't imagine three rounds of that. I was gassed after two minutes of it.Not to mention the second halves of the others who were eliminated: Ronald Acuna Jr., Josh Bell, Matt Chapman, Carlos Santana.
On the other hand, Guerrero Jr. swung his way into a record book: he's part of the first father-and-son tandem to win Home Run Derbies. Whether he eventually becomes half of the first father-and-son tandem of players to become Hall of Famers is, of course, a wide open question the answer to which won't be known for a long enough time.